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So based on the amended (#3) S-4, the record date was indeed, as indicated by the Jeff Evanson, Tesla IR VP, Friday, September 23.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Everyone in this forum should know that Drivin is a discredited liar.
Their argument was completely disproven in my comprehensive post here: What Should Elon Include in His Top Secret Master Plan II
Given that the record date is official now, it would be interesting to see if the share lending interest rate will nose-dive today. Yesterday shares available to short at Fidelity were 0, interest rate - 18% (at 4:00pm).
what would be very disappointing is if the auto numbers come out over the weekend... SCTY vote and secondary happen before the next ER... and then we see a surprisingly poor Q3 report.
Elon has tweeted that Tesla will likely have a record Q3. We all know that Tesla will have a record quarter in deliveries. The "likely record" seems to be a reference to earnings. Tesla's best quarter for earnings was Q1 in 2013 with $0.12 non-GAAP and ($0.40) GAAP earnings. Q2 in 2013 came close with $0.05 non-GAAP and ($0.26) GAAP earnings. Elon's letter to Tesla employees urges them to achieve a positive GAAP earnings. Looks like to do so, the non-GAAP earnings would have to be on the order of $0.40. The average expected Q3 earnings from 15 analysts is $0.04. Based on the above, one would expect a very significant beat on Q3 earnings.
Runarbt
Active Member
To Catch up, they have run in the same direction as tesla ;-)
Imo they are just barely starting to turn the right way. Tesla is still increasing their lead
why do you jump to this assumption: "The "likely record" seems to be a reference to earnings"
after just stating this: "We all know that Tesla will have a record quarter in deliveries"
historical evidence of previous quarters would suggest you've got it backwards.
As of 8:18am, there is still zero shares available to short, with estimated interest rate 18%, no change from yesterday.
Didn't you mention holding short position? If that is the case why would you be disappointed to see "poor Q3 report"? Perhaps you meant to say delighted? Or, may be "poor Q3 report" means a blowout profitable that sinks your short position?
Confusing.
95% of the people on this board are long... so it's easier for you to read it from your perspective... either way... it means the same thing.
Based on evidence discussed to great length in this thread, record deliveries seems almost certain (not "likely"), whereas a record GAAP profit, based on Elon's emails and tweets, appears to be "likely".
$SCTY borrowing rate - ouch. And all the shares are gone. Ouch.
I'm on board with record deliveries... that's not what I asked... what I asked was why do you think we'll see record earnings?... I believe you are reading into Elon's message... and applying your own information based on what you want it to say. making what you're saying simply hyperbole.Based on evidence discussed to great length in this thread, record deliveries seems almost certain (not "likely"), whereas a record GAAP profit, based on Elon's emails and tweets, appears to be "likely".
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I do love how Elon is somewhat cryptic in his messages. He wouldn't have used the word 'likely' if he was talking about deliveries.....it's obvious that they are going to blow away any other quarter with deliveries, even if they miss their predictions.
That leads me to believe that he's talking about a best ever quarter financially.
That leads me to believe that he's talking about a best ever quarter financially.
Gerardf
Active Member
@ myusername
I think you got an excellent and even detailed answer already : https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1756334/
You will need to wait until Monday to get a better one. Repeating the question will not help.
I think you got an excellent and even detailed answer already : https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1756334/
You will need to wait until Monday to get a better one. Repeating the question will not help.
also... since you closely reviewed Elon's inter-quarter messages... then the email that "leaked" also suggested that this may be the last opportunity for Tesla to prove GAAP profitability.Based on evidence discussed to great length in this thread, record deliveries seems almost certain (not "likely"), whereas a record GAAP profit, based on Elon's emails and tweets, appears to be "likely".
so if they deliver 22k cars this quarter... then to meet lower end of annual guidance they will need to deliver 28k cars.
so based on the efforts they've put forth in this quarter... the "discounting" conversation that's going on... and statements in the email... if the deliveries come in between 20k and 23k... would you agree that they will miss annual guidance?... or do you expect to see another record in Q4?
Looking at premarket action, it looks like market doesn't care about record deliveries. Elon "leaked" two internal emails now saying Tesla will have the best quarter and first one talked about delivering anything they can.
I believe market thinks:
- Q4 guidance won't be met (lower end of 80K) due to sell-through using discounts in Q3.
- Q3 deliveries may be record (anything above 17.5K), but financials may not be.
- Q4 cash raise & SCTY deal will need constant money
Now, I doubt we will see a good run even after a solid numbers. I expect them to deliver 23K, but I am not sure about 27K in Q4. So, even if they deliver a strong quarter, but don't confirm Q4, market won't receive the news well.
There is a serious issue regarding margins which won't be addressed until the earnings call. Many here take it for granted that MS75 sale as 60 is same thing them being the same car. I don't agree with it since until now, MS75 sale contributed to margins of 21+%. Lowering 10K just like that will have a strong impact. I know Elon and others here say people spend that money on packages, but it is hard to buy the argument that margins are same. Anyhow, we'll know more around first week of November.
I believe market thinks:
- Q4 guidance won't be met (lower end of 80K) due to sell-through using discounts in Q3.
- Q3 deliveries may be record (anything above 17.5K), but financials may not be.
- Q4 cash raise & SCTY deal will need constant money
Now, I doubt we will see a good run even after a solid numbers. I expect them to deliver 23K, but I am not sure about 27K in Q4. So, even if they deliver a strong quarter, but don't confirm Q4, market won't receive the news well.
There is a serious issue regarding margins which won't be addressed until the earnings call. Many here take it for granted that MS75 sale as 60 is same thing them being the same car. I don't agree with it since until now, MS75 sale contributed to margins of 21+%. Lowering 10K just like that will have a strong impact. I know Elon and others here say people spend that money on packages, but it is hard to buy the argument that margins are same. Anyhow, we'll know more around first week of November.
It will be virtually impossible for Tesla to be close to or GAAP profitable on 23K deliveries. They likely will need at least 25K deliveries.
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