Yeah, I'm not one of them needing to be profitable quarter after quarter. I understand this is a growth stock because it's a company creating a whole new segment. Even Tesla said they put their money back into R&D....so what is it about the market that expects this? Is it a mis-direction from the other side not wanting Tesla to succeed or is it pure short-sightedness of the market? Anyway, they are quite the pest.......hahaha
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'm fine with the delivery upside blowout. I just don't think it's likely
That's true but to play devil's advocate, Tesla has done plenty of that too.Its called "moving the goal posts". The antis love to play it: EVs are slow, EVs can't compete with ICE Acceleration, EVs can't compete on 0-60, EVs can't compete on the 1/4 mile, EVs can't compete on a real test track .. yada yada. Same for investors.
On the other hand, shorts depress the SP and open up great pricing for longs ... its not all bad
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Given that the majority of people I know still do not fully grasp the implications of electric cars, stationary storage, and solar, I would guess that "the market" is a reflection of a population that just doesn't know what to expect. Even among techies, I've run into resistance to the idea that the model of gasoline car and filling stations has a viable alternative in EVs, Supercharging, and home charging.
My expectation is that confusion and tug-of-war between bull and bear forces will continue for several years.
I'm fine with keeping expectations tame.
But I will make this prediction: TSLA has hovered around $240 a few times and if not for Model X issues, it should be trading a lot higher. Market has priced in low expectations to the point where even this forum takes company guidance with a grain of salt. Just showing success of Model X, meeting deliveries, showing profit, strong demand of both S and X should propel the stock. I say we see $250+ this year and break ATH before Model 3 ramp. Just my guess, of course.
But I will make this prediction: TSLA has hovered around $240 a few times and if not for Model X issues, it should be trading a lot higher. Market has priced in low expectations to the point where even this forum takes company guidance with a grain of salt. Just showing success of Model X, meeting deliveries, showing profit, strong demand of both S and X should propel the stock. I say we see $250+ this year and break ATH before Model 3 ramp. Just my guess, of course.
Ulmo
Active Member
fwiw I tend to agree (I predicted same thing with Internet in 1988 and it happened just the same way) :/ but still hoping for bump so I can pay for my new MS and still hold on to some investments worth something for the future.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Everyone is so gloomy today and tonight. I am too.
Good...
It's darkest before the down.
Good...
It's darkest before the down.
Oh God I hope not! Please correct what I hope is a typo ASAP!
Shouldn't that be "It is darkest before the up"? ;-)
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
dawn, dawn, I meant dawn!!!!
I can't correct original post now...
I guess there is some sort of a lock after a period of time
Yes, and the quarterly numbers are:
July: 23 X, 44 S, 67 total
August: 144 X, 161 S, 305 total
September: 601 X, 247 S, 848 total
Quarter: 768 X, 452 S, 1220 total
There will always be some cars that are registered in a given month, but not delivered until the next month, but I think we can assume something like 1150-1200 deliveries in Norway in Q3. I drove past the Drammen service center last evening, and it certainly wasn't overflowing with undelivered cars, at least. There were maybe 20 Teslas there, where most seemed to be cars waiting for servicing. (I should have checked the licence plates to assess how old they were, but I didn't think that far.)
Gerardf
Active Member
I do hope that Tesla will at least make some guiding statement about margin / profitability when releasing the delivery numbers.
You can count on the usual authors to have their pre-prepared articles already stand-by to be pubished within 5 minutes after as delivery numbers come out, screaming that record deliveries are only due to record low margins and will result in record losses. They will not care about Elon's recent statement in order to intentionally spread misinformation. The fact that we did so few shorts covering yesterday might already signal that they expect "someone" to dampen the effect of the high Q3 delivery numbers.
It might mean Tesla will need one or two days more, so I will see any delay as a good sign. I do not care if the insideev estimation comes out earlier. In fact it might be even better is the insideev estimation works out to be to conservative, so the market has two surprises instead of one.
I rather wait a few days longer than having to see all the FUD and lies for a full month.
You can count on the usual authors to have their pre-prepared articles already stand-by to be pubished within 5 minutes after as delivery numbers come out, screaming that record deliveries are only due to record low margins and will result in record losses. They will not care about Elon's recent statement in order to intentionally spread misinformation. The fact that we did so few shorts covering yesterday might already signal that they expect "someone" to dampen the effect of the high Q3 delivery numbers.
It might mean Tesla will need one or two days more, so I will see any delay as a good sign. I do not care if the insideev estimation comes out earlier. In fact it might be even better is the insideev estimation works out to be to conservative, so the market has two surprises instead of one.
I rather wait a few days longer than having to see all the FUD and lies for a full month.
The other couple of parts to unlocking the share price are:
a. More robust product offerings - S 2012, X 2015, 3 2017, (projecting here) Y 2018, P(pickup) 2019, R 2020, then who knows, but that base package of 6 with variants would give the market visibility into growth for near to mid future. It sort of feels like the S and X will generate 100K+ sales per year, to get to 150K they'll need to continue to open markets like South Korea but honestly, they'll need to ace China.
b. More robust sales/service/delivery infrastructure - There's a reason manufacturers have dealers and why most dealers sell from multiple manufacturers, they are trying to amortize costs. As a point of reference, there are 190 Porsche dealers in the US and Porsche delivered just under 52,000 cars in the US last year. That's probably the number Tesla will do this year, with over 90 stores and over 60 service centers. Almost the same ratio, but many of the Porsche dealers are cojoined with other luxury manufacturers, if not in physical space then in back of house operations. People don't see how Tesla can support 1 million cars on the road (all models) by the end of 2018, with probably close to half a million in the US. On the one hand their infrastructure costs are high as they build out the their sales/service network, and on the other it looks inadequate for 2 years from now. Conundrum.
But >25,000 deliveries Q3 will create a short term New Year's Eve celebration in the stock price. If I'm not too greedy I'll unload my shorter options next week as I don't see the run sustained unless there are catalysts. The two that would do it would be positive news on Tesla energy and announcing Model Y. Not sure some big announcement on AP 2.0 does it, people are currently skeptical about the advent of autonomous driving (I love AP 1.0, BTW) and so it won't affect shares much. Maybe a Tesla mobility plan would do something, I just don't see fall 2016 as the moment for that. All hail Gigafactory and Model Y!
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The meteoric rise from 35 to 250 was in large part due to the realization that there was (and is) huge demand for Tesla products. Elon stated on a CC back in 2012 that he believed there was demand for around 25,000 S's per year. The fact that there is much more demand than that is what has kept the SP down over the past 3 years. Massive CapEx spending required to meet that demand splatters red all over the P&L statements.
Tesla Energy is going to help the SP tremendously in 2017, and few realize it. TE is not sexy....just a boring way to make massive profits. It's vital to get Wall Street to see that Tesla is more than 'just another car company', so that these idiotic analysts stop comparing Tesla to Ford.
And regarding profitability of the 3, Tesla has the ability to raise prices at any time due to wild demand for the car. Remember when the S came out? Base price was going to be $50k for the 40kWh. Tesla never sold cars for that price because they never had to. You might not see a bare-bones Model 3 for years.
Tesla Energy is going to help the SP tremendously in 2017, and few realize it. TE is not sexy....just a boring way to make massive profits. It's vital to get Wall Street to see that Tesla is more than 'just another car company', so that these idiotic analysts stop comparing Tesla to Ford.
And regarding profitability of the 3, Tesla has the ability to raise prices at any time due to wild demand for the car. Remember when the S came out? Base price was going to be $50k for the 40kWh. Tesla never sold cars for that price because they never had to. You might not see a bare-bones Model 3 for years.
If you consider market valuation at the highest, Tesla will reach ATH in 240s or low 250s.
If scty merger goes through, ATH market value is around 230.
With all dilution considered, at 280, Tesla will meet GM valuation of 45B.
Model x production, the most difficult car in the world to build, has been accomplished .
The ever increasing benefits of a quality product should allow it to continue to stand out vs the competition.
At a run rate of 25,000 units per qtr, Tesla model X and S are solvent. That is huge,
And gives Tesla credibility. The lack of Credibility that has been used against them and
Is one of the major bearish points.
The above accomplishments were a necessary condition in order to proceed to the next step, model 3.
Now the risk of bankruptcy has further diminished.
The bearish spin based on falsehoods will eventually self destruct as Tesla goes from
One accomplishment to the next. Capital raises to manufacture model 3 should
Be easier in light of the massive reservation numbers, hence the risk there
Is substantially reduced.
As risk diminishes, the stock price will rise.
That's the thing though, supposedly the Model 3 was designed for easy production + Elon automitting the factory for quickness and efficiency + the big add ons people can choose are software related, how could it not be profitable after a few years of running? Things could go wrong, but Elon and Tesla at least have a plan in place, so I'm not worried.
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