Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Stretch2727]

New Jersey just raised the gas tax.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/01/nyregion/new-jersey-gas-tax-23-cents.html?_r=0

Electric cars have no sales tax as well in NJ so a major advantage.

You have to wonder if the politicians factored in the coming reduction in consumption in future years.

 

[AlMc]

That's the thing though, supposedly the Model 3 was designed for easy production + Elon automitting the factory for quickness and efficiency + the big add ons people can choose are software related, how could it not be profitable after a few years of running? Things could go wrong, but Elon and Tesla at least have a plan in place, so I'm not worried.

This is the fundamental difference between bulls and bears, longs and shorts. The bears expect things to go wrong, the bulls expect them to go right. There is evidence that both *sides* can point to to support their case but only one side will be right.

In addition, either side can be right at one time and wrong in another: the short, medium and long time frames

I guess this goes back to the adage: In the stock market bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

I am a bull when it comes to TM/EM/TSLA but I have seen both bulls and bears in TSLA get slaughtered.

Invest wisely, diversify and always accept challenges to your thesis. It makes you a better and more informed investor.

<gets off soap box and apologies to the crowd>

 

[pGo]

If you consider market valuation at the highest, Tesla will reach ATH in 240s or low 250s.

If scty merger goes through, ATH market value is around 230.

With all dilution considered, at 280, Tesla will meet GM valuation of 45B.

If Tesla raises $3B fresh in q4 when stock is around 200-220 range, you are looking at $50B market value when tesla approaches 280s. This includes current shares and scty dilution.

A few years back @280s, Tesla market value was in high 30Bs. We have gone through too much dilution.

This is another reason I believe we won't see a huge jump until after M3 becomes very profitable and is being produced in mass quantities.

 

[kenliles]

This is the fundamental difference between bulls and bears, longs and shorts. The bears expect things to go wrong, the bulls expect them to go right. There is evidence that both *sides* can point to to support their case but only one side will be right.

In addition, either side can be right at one time and wrong in another: the short, medium and long time frames

I guess this goes back to the adage: In the stock market bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

I am a bull when it comes to TM/EM/TSLA but I have seen both bulls and bears in TSLA get slaughtered.

Invest wisely, diversify and always accept challenges to your thesis. It makes you a better and more informed investor.

<gets off soap box and apologies to the crowd>

Very much agree - If I could express the same in a different way; I've found investment works best as a fundamental construct of the company leadership/ it's mission/ it's passion to achieve; rather than decisions of bear-bull across a series of events and ebbs and flows.

<... and apologies to the crowd>

I take extreme umbrage in this part of your post

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Everyone is so gloomy today and tonight. I am too.
Good...

It's darkest before the down.

To clarify, I wouldn't say I am gloomy. I just think it is important to consider the progress of Tesla Motors as distinct and only somewhat related to the price of TSLA.

I am happy that Model X production has stabilized and that Model S and X appear to be selling at a healthy rate. Recent design wins for Tesla Energy are also promising. The company is making tangible progress. I just believe that TSLA will be a trailing indicator of success, given that its product and vision are incomprehensible to many at the present time.

 

[EinSV]

<snip>

I am happy that Model X production has stabilized and that Model S and X appear to be selling at a healthy rate. Recent design wins for Tesla Energy are also promising. The company is making tangible progress. I just believe that TSLA will be a trailing indicator of success, given that its product and vision are incomprehensible to many at the present time.

I think this is a great description and accurately captures the current picture. I believe this will likely continue until Model 3 is being delivered at volume and earning a decent profit, or TE takes off and its future prospects start being factored into the SP in a meaningful way.

Once projections of future revenues and profits start being viewed in a more promising (I would argue more rational) light, that could have a dramatic impact on the SP.

 

[AlMc]

I take extreme umbrage in this part of your post

<climbs back on the soap box long enough to apologize to his friend, Ken>

 

[AlMc]

We all knew that this Paris auto show was to highlight EVs, and it has:
You can read the Forbes article as FUD or as what TM's original mission statement was trying to accomplish

Aux Armes, EVs: Paris Turns Into Elon Musk's Waterloo

 

[EinSV]

We all knew that this Paris auto show was to highlight EVs, and it has:
You can read the Forbes article as FUD or as what TM's original mission statement was trying to accomplish

Aux Armes, EVs: Paris Turns Into Elon Musk's Waterloo

Ah good ole Bertel Schmitt doing what he does best. FUD. Classic title. He and his buddy Niedermeyer are very busy this week. Sure it has nothing to do with the upcoming delivery announcement.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Ah good ole Bertel Schmitt doing what he does best. FUD. Classic title.

Strange article.

I'm a bit disappointed that Paris didn't have more firm plans by the different automakers in the near term. The only significant news was the 40 kWh battery for the Zoe. The Ampera-e was already quite well known - I don't believe any meaningful new information came out.

Most of the plans were for 2020-ish, and by then Tesla might be producing close to a million BEVs per year, with 4-5 different models.

 

[Papafox]

To me personally, THIS is the question. I believe Tesla can make great Model 3 and people will buy it, but I'm not sure that Tesla can make a profit with it.

One point to consider is that Tesla was fairly close predicting the GM of the Model S, and this vehicle was quite different than anything it had before produced. I suspect Tesla will do the same with Model 3. Remember that GM is a result of average selling price, not base price.

 

[EinSV]

[QUOTE="Papafox, post: 1760112, member: 11843"]One point to consider is that Tesla was fairly close predicting the GM of the Model S, and this vehicle was quite different than anything it had before produced. I suspect Tesla will do the same with Model 3. Remember that GM is a result of average selling price, not base price.[/QUOTE]

This is a great point and one that is often overlooked.

If Tesla is able to produce Model 3 at close to 25% GMs the impact on earnings (and SP) should be quite dramatic.

 

[winfield100]

Ah good ole Bertel Schmitt doing what he does best. FUD. Classic title. He and his buddy Niedermeyer are very busy this week. Sure it has nothing to do with the upcoming delivery announcement.

The freaks on SA are using Niedermeyer as gospel to dispel Electrek articles and circular references to SA

 

[3Victoria]

The freaks on SA are using Niedermeyer as gospel to dispel Electrek articles and circular references to SA

Give them enough room to hang themselves. Paris was good, it showed therer are plans for EVs. If they come to fruition, EM's plan is working.

 

[tander]

If they come out with q3 deliveries above 30k (as I think will happen), curious what people thing the market reaction will be? That would be over twice q2, so I'm guessing at least a 15% move by week's end?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I believe Tesla can make great Model 3 and people will buy it, but I'm not sure that Tesla can make a profit with it.

As others have pointed out, Tesla was able to predict Model S margin very accurately. IIRC Elon did make a stab at predicting Model 3 margins in a CC, but it was vague, like not as much as Model S margins, but still healthy. The bare bones Model 3 might have 5% margins (just a WAG), but the average Model 3 margin could be more like 10%. With volumes 5x to 10x Model S, these are still healthy numbers.

 

[EinSV]

As others have pointed out, Tesla was able to predict Model S margin very accurately. IIRC Elon did make a stab at predicting Model 3 margins in a CC, but it was vague, like not as much as Model S margins, but still healthy. The bare bones Model 3 might have 5% margins (just a WAG), but the average Model 3 margin could be more like 10%. With volumes 5x to 10x Model S, these are still healthy numbers.

Elon's estimate was a 25% GM for Model 3.

$20B in revenues and $5B in gross profit.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)

 

[sub]

Geez people, can we turn down the posting volume? Some of us have been too busy to keep up, I've been trailing by 20 pages all week!

Regarding discounts, I was very close to pulling trigger on an in enventory S early this past week and I was not offered any more discount above the 2 year lease special. While my wife and I discussed it over 1-2 hours the two cars we were considering were sold out from under us, another small data point for a good qtr. We had to pass for now, too much of our cash is tied up in a couple real estate deals.

I did increase our stake in TSLA shares this week however, waiting to roll some J17's until after deliveries number released. I'm hoping for 25k but I have nothing to base that off of other than the discussion in this thread. Good luck to the Bulls.

 

[RobStark]

If you consider market valuation at the highest, Tesla will reach ATH in 240s or low 250s.

If scty merger goes through, ATH market value is around 230.

With all dilution considered, at 280, Tesla will meet GM valuation of 45B.

GM's market cap stands at $48.97B today. A year ago it was $55B.

 

[davecolene0606]

Staggering...
This piece of FUD even says Tesla will be producing large numbers of M3 in 2018, fully 3 years before any other OEM is even launching!
It goes on to say that these OEM's still don't believe there is a market for EV's (only proposals for an EV because of CO2 rules, sound familiar?) and that they will discount Tesla to death.

So once again, the ICE OEM's show their cards... "EV's are just a losing proposition and only exist because of regulatory requirements.... burning stuff is still better" (cromagnon CEO beats chest and yells!)

Also, lovely to see these paid schills excoriating US innovation and productivity by insisting US production is losing proposition over anywhere else in the world. I guess idiotstreet is in fact against the US worker, middle class and its economy! Any US citizen who reads this FUD should be outraged at the anti US sentiment being spewed here. Maybe Steve Forbes is building on his Dad's Russian connections!?

Sheesh

..... gets of soap box and...... (Love that phrase, had to borrow it!)

Fire Away