Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[RobStark]

Tesla only offers seven colors now.

Three blackish.
Silver Peal White
Electric Blue
Red

 

[MikeC]

Interesting change.

Tesla model X ordering (custom) has dropped the 60D option, accessory tow hitch (1.25")--only 2" tow hitch available, and now all model X come standard with Air suspension.

Standard suspension coils are not offered anymore and folks are saying that those with coils ordered (5 seats, coils, etc...) are being called to change their orders.

Also they've dropped the standard white color (no charge) and titanium silver color (the brownish one).

Oh, and they added back the P90D.

Bulls: 60D was dropped because demand was too high

Bears: 60D was dropped because margins were too low

 

[EinSV]

Bulls: 60D was dropped because demand was too high

Bears: 60D was dropped because margins were too low

I have a hard time believing this is a manufacturing capacity problem in Fremont.

Another (speculative) bull hypothesis is Tesla is now battery production constrained and can get better margins on TE products.

 

[MikeC]

I have a hard time believing this is a manufacturing capacity problem in Fremont.

Not a manufacturing capacity problem per se, more that they are confident that they do/will have enough orders to meet their current targets, so they don't need to offer the lower margin car.

 

[RobStark]

Bears: 60D was dropped because margins were too low

Because negative margins were too high

 

[EinSV]

Not a manufacturing capacity problem per se, more that they are confident that they do/will have enough orders to meet their current targets, so they don't need to offer the lower margin car.

That makes sense to me. Will be interesting to see this play out ....

 

[Novice]

Can anyone explain the rationale of placing the ER3 result on the 26th to take place before the solar city/tesla announcement when both events are deemed positive events . What advantage would this arrangement confer ?

 

[schonelucht]

Maybe the early ER dat has little to do with the Solar City event, but rather with the timing of the capital raise in this quarter.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Not a manufacturing capacity problem per se, more that they are confident that they do/will have enough orders to meet their current targets, so they don't need to offer the lower margin car.

I am still laughing every time this artificial demand discussion is resurfacing again.
I would in deed be worried about demand in case Tesla would cease to open new stores, service centers, vehicles, product features and so on.
But the company is just doing what the company was doing for the last couple of years. Growing in every dimension. And there are no signs of stopping this growth. Au contraire, current plans are to increase the factory in Fremont by a factor of two and the factory in Nevada by a factor of three. I could go on with a lot of other ways the company is growing.
E.g. there are still so many areas in the US/Europe/Asia/ROW without adequate sales and service infrastructure. There is a lot of potential demand to be unlocked by each new sales and service center. A lot of people simply do not want to bring their vehicle in for service in case the service center is far away.
All tesla has to do is open a new sales and service centers and people will flock together and buy these crazy amazing cars.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

So, finally caught up, have been about 20-30 pages behind as this thread moves way too fast so missing a few days sucks...

What event are people discussing about yesterday/today that makes you think Trump peed himself and leaves? The first debate was over a week ago and quick youtube search shows no debate yesterday.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Ok, so his sexual remarks tape. But that is fully in chara ter, why should that change anything? He's a misogynist who can do what he wants to whom he wants. Has always been and is marketed as such...

 

[schonelucht]

Would any of the moderators consider opening a 'US election impact' thread on the investor section and then moving everything over there. I'd love to answer but I fear mixing politics+money may derail this thread even more than it already is.

 

[Drax7]

Ok, so his sexual remarks tape. But that is fully in chara ter, why should that change anything? He's a misogynist who can do what he wants to whom he wants. Has always been and is marketed as such...

So Hillary's corruption is totally acceptable, right?

Goose gander equivalence resonates, can you handle it?

 

[myusername]

Ok, so his sexual remarks tape. But that is fully in chara ter, why should that change anything? He's a misogynist who can do what he wants to whom he wants. Has always been and is marketed as such...

"When you're a star you can do whatever you want... you can grab them by the p****"

how exactly does the perma-republican christian base support a guy on record stating his abuse of power leading to sexual assault?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

"When you're a star you can do whatever you want... you can grab them by the p****"

how exactly does the perma-republican christian base support a guy on record stating his abuse of power leading to sexual assault?

I'd say it differs in no way from his prior actions and statements. I as someone from EU still find it bizarre that there is ANYONE that supports him at all

 

[Drax7]

I think Trump will step down this weekend. Whether he does or not, I think today cinched the election for Hillary. Good for EVs and Tesla.

Bill Clinton was getting bj in the Oval Office, and respect for him has not diminished.
It actually increased his stance as a man of substance.

Hillary is closely associated with him if I am not mistaken.

 

[myusername]

I as someone from the US completely agree with you... but of all of his supporters have been basically avoiding direct responses to his statements as "out of context" one liners... this is a 5 minute audio recording with full context... there's no skirting around this as has been repeated by Republicans who are openly stating they attempted to find a way to "spin" it but couldn't. I think Pence's only chance to save his political career is to withdraw and denounce Trump.

 

[myusername]

Your comment reveals a fundamental misunderstanding about how markets work. The market does not price in outcomes, it prices in probabilities.

Before today's recording surfaced, the market should have been pricing in ~20% probability of a Trump victory.

Let's say that probability declines to 10% or even 5% on the eve of Election Day. Assuming the market favors a Clinton victory, the market should STILL react positively if she wins--even though that is the most likely outcome--as the probability of a Trump presidency declines to 0% overnight, which IS material.

You are not alone though. Over and over again I see people repeating this flawed notion of outcomes being "priced in" without mentioning the true dynamic at play, which is the flux of the weighted probabilities of all possible outcomes.

"Your comment reveals a fundamental misunderstanding about how markets work"

no it doesn't... just because I didn't go into full dissertation with a probability breakdown doesn't mean it wasn't part of my thought process... being... a 20% probability in US politics means virtually zero chance... and is no different than a 10% or 5% chance.

what we just saw with Tesla is a pretty good example of this... what was the probability prior to Q3 numbers release that they'd deliver gt 20k?... very high... on Monday there was astonishment on this board from the squelched price action... my post last weekend stated there's a decent chance that TSLA stays flat or even trades for less after a solid beat... rejected off $215 and now trading 5% lower than the closing price prior to announcement of record breaking deliveries.

I think it is safe to say that a strong Q was priced into the stock. where "strong Q" is the outcome... not the probability... was the probability 100% that the Q would be "strong"... no... but a strong Q would not shock the market... what would have is a weak Q.

so... relatively... Trump winning the election will shock the market... Tesla having a poor Q3 will shock the market... Tesla not posting significant non-GAAP profits will shock the market... Tesla posting significant GAAP losses will shock the market...

whereas Trump losing the election will have little effect... Tesla posting GAAP profit close to zero will not shock the market...

when the probability is so likely... then you're better off just looking at the potential outcomes and which direction "shock" will go.

hence my statement that "It's more likely than many on this board believe that TSLA will trade flat or even lower after strong delivery numbers"

and that was based on this line of thinking.

 

[Drax7]

Trump is a bombastic disruptor , that implies risk.
No two ways about it.
Risk initially will spell price concession.

 

[winfield100]

1. No. They won't. They *can't*.

2. Are you serious? Every review I've read says that DrivePilot drives like a drunk 10 year old, while Autopilot is much better, though still does not drive like a highly skilled driver. The War For Autonomous Driving: 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class VS. 2017 Tesla Model S

nice balanced article from the link comparing the autonomous driving.
(to be fair, i have driven a MB twice, both times in fear for my life as the steering and acceleration were "loose as a diahretic goose" turn the wheel and wait for response, step on accelerator and wait and wait. (i have driven about 1.2 million miles {1.9million kilometers in 55 years})