3Victoria
Active Member
Most complaints are that it nags too much (thanks CR). Some would sppear to meed their steering calibrated, since their cars seem insensitive to their hands on.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I don't understand the logic behind product announcement being after ER. Is it just to avoid answering product questions during ER call?
While this thinking certainly has merit, the scale of Tesla's ambition is so big that it will take a long time to execute on it. And ambition becomes bigger over time as well. What you call "belief" is really a somewhat quantifiable plan that Tesla already published that is looking a decade ahead if not more. There's 50% growth in it for years and years. And of course the risks of various snags that go with such ambition.
While this thinking certainly has merit, the scale of Tesla's ambition is so big that it will take a long time to execute on it. And ambition becomes bigger over time as well. What you call "belief" is really a somewhat quantifiable plan that Tesla already published that is looking a decade ahead if not more. There's 50% growth in it for years and years. And of course the risks of various snags that go with such ambition.
I see, another thing to worry about
For the record, I personally see 8.0 as an improvement (I have a non-AP "classic" MS) and chose "somewhat better" in the poll linked up-thread.
I take these reviews with a grain of salt. There is a group of core members that complain vehemently about EVERYTHING in EVERY UI update, as well as a large group of IT professionals who's complaints pretty often read quite snobbish.
There are always opportunities for improvement and some things that deserve complaining, but overall I see UI updates as a steady progress, and very happy to have them.
Last edited:
I'm thinking it's to not overshadow the announcement on the 28th. The ER is a fairly common thing, you have them four times a year. That's not to say they aren't important, but it's mostly about presenting the figures and answering a few questions, and that's that for another three months. The Tesla/Solar City announcement however will outline the direction of the company for the next few years, at least when it comes to the Tesla Energy side. They probably want to get as much attention focused on this announcement as possible. This culminates in the merger vote, where they want a win to feel like a win. They don't just want the merger to go through, they want an overwhelming majority to be in favour of the merger. In this narrative, the ER is a distraction.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's all vaporware anyway, there never were any actual cars.Yeah but some people here say TSLA is doomed because they can't build cars and if they could no one will want to buy them. So they must be gradually just eliminating all models to trick us.
On 8/8/16, vin #155XXX was issued for Model S. On 10/7/16, vin #1666XX was issued for Model S.
So roughly 11,000 VIN issued for the Model S over a span of 2 months, which yields an annualized rate of 66,000 MODEL S per year.
Meanwhile, it seems that Model X orders for RHD customers in Australia have just been given VINS beginning in the 24XXX range. Taken in context of changes to the Tesla website eliminating the lower margin 60D and making certain options such as air suspension standard, this suggests Model X demand is strong. Meanwhile new orders for Model X in Europe are currently given a delivery window of early 2017.
An annualized demand rate of over 100,000 - 110,000 S/X is achievable based on these numbers and may even be conservative. Moreover, with the gigafactory coming online by the end of the year, margins will likely improve significantly and 30% gross margin will be within striking distance.
This is a very critical time for Tesla. The low stock price indicating lack of confidence on the part of investors may actually be helpful in motivating Tesla to reach its goals.
I agree with comments on this board. If the path to tremendous growth was free of obstacles and confidence in management was high, it would already be reflected in a very high stock price and there would be little room for stock price appreciation. Making money requires faith and belief that a company will achieve its goals when these prospects remain doubtful to the market at large.
Who would have known that Priceline which traded at $6 after the dot-com bust would now be trading at $1500. I'm sure if you looked at discussions in 2001 most people doubted Priceline would amount to anything. And look what happened.
Take a look at the rapid ascent of Amazon's stock price over the last 2 years. Price appreciation is unpredictable and can move violently to the upside leaving doubters behind.
As recently as the last conference call, Elon was quite clear that there was plentiful demand for Tesla energy products. If only a fraction of that perceived demand is real, then there is path for Tesla Energy to begin providing a highly profitable and growing revenue stream.
What is happening to Tesla right now is NOT UNUSUAL AND NOT UNEXPECTED. It is by investing and holding onto TSLA in this time of uncertainty that we will reap profits in the future.
My feeling is that the current stock price is being manipulated by powerful forces to the downside as a means of sabotoging Tesla's ability to access capital on good terms. Tesla's enemies are many but it will only take a few strong allies to tip the scales in their favor.
So roughly 11,000 VIN issued for the Model S over a span of 2 months, which yields an annualized rate of 66,000 MODEL S per year.
Meanwhile, it seems that Model X orders for RHD customers in Australia have just been given VINS beginning in the 24XXX range. Taken in context of changes to the Tesla website eliminating the lower margin 60D and making certain options such as air suspension standard, this suggests Model X demand is strong. Meanwhile new orders for Model X in Europe are currently given a delivery window of early 2017.
An annualized demand rate of over 100,000 - 110,000 S/X is achievable based on these numbers and may even be conservative. Moreover, with the gigafactory coming online by the end of the year, margins will likely improve significantly and 30% gross margin will be within striking distance.
This is a very critical time for Tesla. The low stock price indicating lack of confidence on the part of investors may actually be helpful in motivating Tesla to reach its goals.
I agree with comments on this board. If the path to tremendous growth was free of obstacles and confidence in management was high, it would already be reflected in a very high stock price and there would be little room for stock price appreciation. Making money requires faith and belief that a company will achieve its goals when these prospects remain doubtful to the market at large.
Who would have known that Priceline which traded at $6 after the dot-com bust would now be trading at $1500. I'm sure if you looked at discussions in 2001 most people doubted Priceline would amount to anything. And look what happened.
Take a look at the rapid ascent of Amazon's stock price over the last 2 years. Price appreciation is unpredictable and can move violently to the upside leaving doubters behind.
As recently as the last conference call, Elon was quite clear that there was plentiful demand for Tesla energy products. If only a fraction of that perceived demand is real, then there is path for Tesla Energy to begin providing a highly profitable and growing revenue stream.
What is happening to Tesla right now is NOT UNUSUAL AND NOT UNEXPECTED. It is by investing and holding onto TSLA in this time of uncertainty that we will reap profits in the future.
My feeling is that the current stock price is being manipulated by powerful forces to the downside as a means of sabotoging Tesla's ability to access capital on good terms. Tesla's enemies are many but it will only take a few strong allies to tip the scales in their favor.
Last edited:
Good article highlighting some of what WS sees as risk in tesla
Goldman and the Tesla Hyper-Feedback-Loop
Goldman and the Tesla Hyper-Feedback-Loop
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The Gigafactory is not supposed to produce cells for the MX and MS for quite a while (years?).
Priceline (PCLN):
Total Revenue -- 9,223,987
Cost of Revenue -- 632,180
Gross Profit -- 8,591,807
Look at that margin! that's 93%!!!
I've commented before regarding the comparison of TSLA to "tech" companies and assuming the possibility of enormous ramps in PPS from here... but there's two things:
1) $7500 + ~$4000 (10% or more!) of Tesla's GM is tax incentives to their customers
2) Tesla will NEVER do what Priceline has done... because it is NOT a "tech" company
"The low stock price indicating lack of confidence"
there are a very large number of people that do not consider today's stock price as "low"... but instead incredibly high.
"If the path to tremendous growth was free of obstacles and confidence in management was high, it would already be reflected in a very high stock price and there would be little room for stock price appreciation"
again... what are you comparing "high" and "low" to?
3Victoria
Active Member
There have been reports complaining about politics in two recent posts, although they are balanced as one is negative about one candidate the other about the other candidate. (Like what political junkies call "paired votes" in Congress.) There is a perfectly respectable thread for such concerns related to our upcoming election in addition to either the Macro environment thread or the long term. Unfortunately, it has posts only for a few days last May. However, they are extremely perceptive and really on target for the implications of the coming election on Tesla and those of us concerned about environmental matters. Read and enjoy.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/effect-of-the-2016-us-presidential-election-on-tesla-motors.
Re, those posts that have been fingered as political.
I've said this before, if you are concerned about the meaning of polls and speculation about results of the election, no better source for evaluation is Nate Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight. A recent post by one of his colleagues deals with the issue of whether the recent tape discovered by the Washington Post will prove influential on the outcome.
Will The Trump Tape Have A Bigger Effect On The Race Than Past Controversies?
Her conclusions are not at all partisan but provide really nice analytical frameworks for understanding what is going on.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/effect-of-the-2016-us-presidential-election-on-tesla-motors.
Re, those posts that have been fingered as political.
I've said this before, if you are concerned about the meaning of polls and speculation about results of the election, no better source for evaluation is Nate Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight. A recent post by one of his colleagues deals with the issue of whether the recent tape discovered by the Washington Post will prove influential on the outcome.
Will The Trump Tape Have A Bigger Effect On The Race Than Past Controversies?
Her conclusions are not at all partisan but provide really nice analytical frameworks for understanding what is going on.
but without them... then Tesla would have to lower prices to sell the same amount of cars (theoretically)... a $140,000 car vs a $128,500 is not that much of a difference... a $40,000 car vs a $28,500 car is a completely different market segment.
The incentives stimulate demand, and while demand isn't an issue, the incentives are pretty much irrelevant. It's also important to note that something like 40% of sales are in markets with little to no direct incentives. Also not everyone qualifies for the federal incentive, and certainly not the state incentives, which are at least based on income in California.
It's a tech company, just not an internet or SW company. More comparable to Apple or Samsung than Google or Facebook.
I care little about the UI changes. It is comments about AP performing inferior than before that worries me. Some speculate it is because the car needs to relearn from the driver and it will take some time for the computer to adjust to their new sense (radar as primary).I see, another thing to worry about
For the record, I personally see 8.0 as an improvement (I have a non-AP "classic" MS) and chose "somewhat better" in the poll linked up-thread.
I take these reviews with a grain of salt. There is a group of core members that complain vehemently about EVERYTHING in EVERY UI update, as well as a large group of IT professionals who's complaints pretty often read quite snobbish.
There are always opportunities for improvement and some things that deserve complaining, but overall I see UI updates as a steady progress, and very happy to have them.
While this article shows how shorts and others view Tesla (and has some value for that purpose) it also highlights some of the errors in their logic, such as:
* Tesla always disappoints on earnings reports- Perhaps certain earnings reports from 2013 are more appropriate this time around, when Tesla shocked the market with profitability.
* TE is largely ignored- Combine the likely improvements in cell chemistry in the 2170 cells for frequent-cycling storage solutions with the substantial overall improvements in TE 2.0 products (inverter, etc.), and you have a recipe for very substantial profitability coming from TE, with pretty amazing margins. No wonder Tesla is accelerating the gigafactory growth.
* Tesla with SolarCity will have too much debt- The problem here is that not all debt is equal. Much of SCTY's debt is related to PPA installations that have already been completed. Those PPA contracts are net positives if they are financed at reasonable interest rates because they contain long income streams. Tesla has the option to completely revamp SCTY's business model and those PPAs continue to produce cash flow.
What I see emerging is a Tesla with a profitable core automotive and energy business, beginning in Q3 and a very profitable TE portion of that business beginning in Q4. Tesla's current delivery schedule (new North American deliveries backed up to December already) and their willingness to eliminate the 60kwh Model X, strongly indicates that demand in Q4 is sufficient to meet the 2016 projection of 80,000 vehicles delivered, and that GMs will improve nicely in Q4, both because of the volume of deliveries and because of specific changes to vehicles sold (must order air suspension on X, must order at least 75kwh battery on X).
The missing link is the careful explanation of how SCTY gets turned around on a cashflow basis, and I expect that Elon will address this issue on both Oct 26 at the ER and Oct 28 on the new products reveal event. Moving out of the PPA space and into the owner-financed solar roof business should be the centerpiece of this explanation.
Most of the negative comments I read about the AP 8.0 being inferior to 7.0 is because of the 'Nag' being more aggressive.
The radar is 'co primary' with the camera. The camera is still responsible for lane keep and lane change.
The radar now instead of being secondary to the camera for auto stop and following distance control is now primary for both of them.
Since it's the weekend, when I watched Bloomberg this morning I caught this bit about another young genius who reminds me of Elon Musk. Although it spends time on relations between father and son it shows how a really great business mind works.
Good Fortunes: Aditya Mittal
when I watched Bloomberg this morning I caught this bit about another young genius who reminds me of Elon Musk. Although it spends time on relations between father and son it shows how a really great business mind works.Good Fortunes: Aditya Mittal
ugh... you know what I don't understand?... it seems like there are very intelligent people on this board... but many appear to subscribe to this same line of thinking.
what makes Tesla more like Apple, Google or Facebook than Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, etc.?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
