Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[techmaven]

From the shareholder letters, ZEV credit revenues:

2014 Q4: $66 million ($86 total regulatory credits)
2015 Q1: $51 million ($66 total regulatory credits)
2015 Q2: $27 million
2015 Q3: $39 million

$183 million in ZEV credits in the 2014-2015 period
Sold 1554.805 credits
Conversion factor: 28.57
44,423 in ZEV credits, or $4120 per credit

====
2015 Q4: $8 million
2016 Q1: $57 million
2016 Q2: "insignificant revenue"
2016 Q3: ??

$65 million w/o Q3 numbers
Sold 80,227.00

The reporting periods don't quite match up, so it's a bit difficult to sort out exactly.

Update: added earlier data, found conversion factor

 

[uselesslogin]

OK, apologies for all these ZEV posts, I know I'm bordering on spam here. Just trying to reconcile the numbers.

So, 2015 shows that Tesla transferred 1504 credits from 14Q2 through 15Q3. If we multiply by $4,000 per credit, that's just $6 million. However, TSLA shows regulatory credit revenue of $170 million during this timeframe (66 million 14Q4, 51 million 15Q1, 14 million 15Q2 and 39 million 15Q3). I know there are other credits than ZEV at play, but what specifically accounts for the $164 million extra? Are these extra credits still around and are they measurable like the ZEV? If so, I bet they were sold off in 16Q3 too.

This question is relevant to the 80,227 number for 2016. How much ZEV accounts for the reported $65 million already sold in 15Q4, 16Q1 and 16Q2? Did other credits carry the day in these quarters or did discounted ZEV credits make up the numbers (and are thus largely spoken for already?).

The revenue was all zev credits but there are two different ways of measuring them so you have to multiply those low numbers by some factor. I can't look for it now though.

 

[brian45011]

80,227 ZEV credits.

1 ZEV credit is worth ~$4000 due to the penalties an automaker has to pay if they don't produce or purchase enough credits.

80,227 * 4000 = $320,908,000

Looking at previous year editions of that page, looks like the most credits TSLA has sold in those 11 month periods previously was 1,554.
.

The fine is $5,000/ credit; the market price for transferring (selling) credits has been about $4,000 +/-.

FY 2014 & earlier was reported in grams per mile Non-Methane Organic Gases (g/mi NMOG); divide by0.035 to convert to ZEV credits.

 

[dc_h]

OK, apologies for all these ZEV posts, I know I'm bordering on spam here. Just trying to reconcile the numbers.

So, 2015 shows that Tesla transferred 1504 credits from 14Q2 through 15Q3. If we multiply by $4,000 per credit, that's just $6 million. However, TSLA shows regulatory credit revenue of $170 million during this timeframe (66 million 14Q4, 51 million 15Q1, 14 million 15Q2 and 39 million 15Q3). I know there are other credits than ZEV at play, but what specifically accounts for the $164 million extra? Are these extra credits still around and are they measurable like the ZEV? If so, I bet they were sold off in 16Q3 too.

This question is relevant to the 80,227 number for 2016. How much ZEV accounts for the reported $65 million already sold in 15Q4, 16Q1 and 16Q2? Did other credits carry the day in these quarters or did discounted ZEV credits make up the numbers (and are thus largely spoken for already?).

Apparently someone has noticed your spam. Was up about $3 and now up $5. Would be nice to build some momentum into new product releases and earnings and merger.

 

[Drax7]

I don't know all of the relevant facts. Which puts me way ahead of someone who thinks he knows what he doesn't know.

more mumbo jumbo.
peter lynch said if a child cannot explain a business with a crayon within a
minute , forget about it.

 

[Matias]

If you listen to the second SCTY call you will hear Elon say exactly what I described. Plus the private call backs, and private tours which are publicly known.

You are choosing to ignore well known facts, which is not a wise investment strategy!

It is not forbidden to discuss in private. But it is forbidden to privately give material information to only some investors. This is very basic publicly traded company rule. If you are not familiar with this, you lack some basic information about stock exchange rules.

Please see Regulation Fair Disclosure - Wikipedia

 

[MitchJi]

It is not forbidden to discuss in private. But it is forbidden to privately give material information to only some investors. This is very basic publicly traded company rule. If you are not familiar with this, you lack some basic information about stock exchange rules.

Please see Regulation Fair Disclosure - Wikipedia

I'm going to stop replying to this nonsense.

 

[Matias]

I'm going to stop replying to this nonsense.

SEC rules are nonsense to you?

SEC.gov | Fair Disclosure, Regulation FD

 

[racer26]

The fine is $5,000/ credit; the market price for transferring (selling) credits has been about $4,000 +/-.

FY 2014 & earlier was reported in grams per mile Non-Methane Organic Gases (g/mi NMOG); divide by0.035 to convert to ZEV credits.

OOOOOK.

So that means that the current year 80,227 ZEV credits number equates to selling ~2808 of the older g/mi NMOG version of the credit. Still means they sold about twice as many credits this year as any other.

The older version of the credit though I've seen prices in around the 100k mark for. So I believe the 4k price for the current ZEV credits is still correct.

Also: At Aug 31, 2015, TSLA had 4,988 ZEV Credits, and at Aug 31, 2016 they had 3,530. Plus the 80,227 they sold.

If my math is right, 4988 - 80227 + 3530 = 71,709 credits generated between Aug 15 and Aug 16.

At 4 credits a car means TSLA sold 17,927 cars in CARB states in that period.

 

[Turing]

Yup. Recession isn't a concern. The opposite is the concern: inflation and interest rate increases

Really doubt inflation is a true concern. The fed hasn't been able to hit their 2% target for years, even with all the QE and low interest rates.

 

[techmaven]

Edit: Strike that... credits changed.

 

[brian45011]

Definitely was not zero, but Tesla didn't break it out. How much revenue must it have been in order for them to break it out? It is definitely categorized as cash flow from operating activities, but likely lost in the accounts receivable?

Better practice would be to report regulatory credit sales as Other Income on the Operating Statement, with explanations in the Management Discussion section of the 10q/k. Since these transactions have essentially no corresponding expense, they often have a material effect on the bottom line. The current reporting method also causes variability and distortions in GM, because the credit sales only apply to car sales in certain jurisdictions; occur at different times than the underlying, qualifying car sale; and are to an entirely different class of buyers.

Tesla has been inconsistent in reporting info about regulatory credit transactions,sometimes fairly detailed; other times, just amounts; lately almost no detail, especially about GHG and CAFE credit sales

 

[Turing]

Nothing against Germany not liking the name, they have valid concerns and have the right to act proactively. However they should also show similar (or much greater) level of concern to the blatant lies and crappy products sold by VW in the name of fine German engineering. Those emissions have harmed a lot more people than 'autopilot'..

Why aren't they equally concerned with mercedes "drive pilot" that has *actually* been literally marketed as "self driving" by mercedes itself?

 

[deonb]

Why aren't they equally concerned with mercedes "drive pilot" that has been *actually* been literally marketed as "self driving" by mercedes itself?

Nobody in their right mind will believe a Mercedes to be "self driving".

 

[Intl Professor]

It is clear to me that you have never worked at a real tech company. The answer can be technically defensible but fundamentally untrue. Something failed with the Silveo effort. Perhaps simply capital availability. Perhaps the fundamental module design. Or perhaps scaling manufacturing.

Decision making in different cultures are often different. With no racist motives in mind, I have read on several occasions and from a dear friend's personal experience (as an executive with Proctor and Gamble he once sold a factory to the Chinese) it is possible Panasonic was reluctant to join with Tesla on another venture until it was surer the merger of Tesla and Solar City would go through. Sometimes silicon valley--the non- Hollywood one--moves with light speed or at least ludicrous or no-brainer speed or physics first principled speed.

 

[racer26]

OK, apologies for all these ZEV posts, I know I'm bordering on spam here. Just trying to reconcile the numbers.

So, 2015 shows that Tesla transferred 1504 credits from 14Q2 through 15Q3. If we multiply by $4,000 per credit, that's just $6 million. However, TSLA shows regulatory credit revenue of $170 million during this timeframe (66 million 14Q4, 51 million 15Q1, 14 million 15Q2 and 39 million 15Q3). I know there are other credits than ZEV at play, but what specifically accounts for the $164 million extra? Are these extra credits still around and are they measurable like the ZEV? If so, I bet they were sold off in 16Q3 too.

This question is relevant to the 80,227 number for 2016. How much ZEV accounts for the reported $65 million already sold in 15Q4, 16Q1 and 16Q2? Did other credits carry the day in these quarters or did discounted ZEV credits make up the numbers (and are thus largely spoken for already?).

Compensated for the other kind of credits (g/mi NMOG credits at 1 ZEV = 0.035 g/mi NMOG, means a 4k ZEV price is $114,285.71/ NMOG credit)

That would be just shy of $172M. And it all makes sense now.

 

[techmaven]

One more on ZEV credits... the CARB page here:
Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

Shows the g/mi NMOG credits versus the ZEV credits, and the conversion factor is 28.5714
Which means Tesla was roughly paid $4,120 per ZEV credit in the 2014-2015 period.

That means the 80,227 * $4,120 = $330.5 million in ZEV credits in the 2015-2016 period. Remove the $65-66 million already sold, that's $264.5 million in Q3 if they sold it at the same prices. Discount as you wish.

 

[racer26]

One more on ZEV credits... the CARB page here:
Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

Shows the g/mi NMOG credits versus the ZEV credits, and the conversion factor is 28.5714
Which means Tesla was roughly paid $4,120 per ZEV credit in the 2014-2015 period.

That means the 80,227 * $4,120 = $330.5 million in ZEV credits in the 2015-2016 period. Remove the $65-66 million already sold, that's $264.5 million in Q3 if they sold it at the same prices. Discount as you wish.

Agree. Its huge no matter which way you slice it since TSLA sold almost twice as many ZEV credits this year as ever before.

Even at a 50% discount it would still provide as much revenue as last year's ~$170M and that means ~$100M in 3Q16 to the bottom line.

 

[Intl Professor]

You are a superstar. You are very appreciated here!

There is a difference between a supernova and a shooting star.

 

[vgrinshpun]

One more on ZEV credits... the CARB page here:
Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

Shows the g/mi NMOG credits versus the ZEV credits, and the conversion factor is 28.5714
Which means Tesla was roughly paid $4,120 per ZEV credit in the 2014-2015 period.

That means the 80,227 * $4,120 = $330.5 million in ZEV credits in the 2015-2016 period. Remove the $65-66 million already sold, that's $264.5 million in Q3 if they sold it at the same prices. Discount as you wish.

According to this Article current market price for ZEV credits is $3,000 - $4,000:

"But the Toyota Mirai and the Honda Clarity will pay off handsomely in credits — nine of them for each sale, compared to four credits the state now gives a Tesla Model S or the three it gives a Nissan Leaf.

The credits are currently worth about $3,000 to $4,000 each, according to a source with knowledge of the private credit-trading market among automakers."