Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ZsoZso]

Some people were wondering why MBLY stock went up yesterday after the Tesla-vision news. Let me attempt an explanation:

The loss of Tesla as a customer to Mobileye was already known fact, so it had no negative impact.
On the other hand, MBLY investors may have feared that AP2 system of Tesla may be offered to other manufacturers, creating a superior competitor to Mobileye. The Oct.19 reveal from Tesla did not state or even imply any intention of Tesla productizing the Tesla-Vision system outside of their own cars, so this news puts MBLY investors at ease that Mobileye can continue its near-monopoly status for all other manufacturers.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

but the probability of the exact same accident happening twice are exactly ZERO... even if it happened 10 minutes after the previous one in the exact same location with the exact same actors... the variables are enormous and start with position of the sun... cloud cover... wind speed... and the list goes on and on.

there is a bump in the road on my commute... it's on a curve on an interstate that is usually packed with cars... when hitting this bump, most vehicles usually shift to the left a bit as steering is momentarily (in the realm of 10ms) less effective. over time i've developed a strategy for this bump... one... drive slightly right into the bump so that when I shift left I end up straight... two... slow down if there's lots of cars that will hit it at the same time... three... if I see a person in a car next to me that is clearly not familiar with the bump I allow my car to drift to the left on the edge or slightly outside the yellow line since I'm frequently in the "fast" lane (another defensive tactic for this bump)...

now try to program a computer to learn that.

i'm not saying it can't be done... but I am saying that someone coming out and saying "AI box checked... now let go of the wheel!"... I will question for many years... I expect we will not be seeing level 4 or level 5 until 2025.

Emphasis on exact or similar event.

A computer can run millions of simulations of a particular event, taking into account subtle variations. A person can't.

 

[pGo]

Thank you Forbes for summing up all my ranting:

“To choose now you’re saying that today’s technology will be the solution five years from now,” said Nidhi Kalra, a senior information scientist at RAND Corp. and co-director of its Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty. ”The package of sensors you might want five years from is probably going to be very different.”

Tesla's Self-Driving Hardware Gamble: Is 2016 Tech Good Enough For Next Decade?

Let's stop buying cellphones and laptops as within 5 years AR and wearables will kill them.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Some people were wondering why MBLY stock went up yesterday after the Tesla-vision news. Let me attempt an explanation:

The other thing I'd add after a quick look at the $MBLY chart yesterday is that after it's recent drop from low $50s to the mid $30s it is very oversold and due for at least a pause in the selling.

 

[myusername]

Hi myusername

Firstly I just want to say that I appreciate your posts. I don't agree with you most of the time as I'm very bullish on TSLA, but I do like to consider your counter-opinions. I can perhaps appreciate that other members of the forum that have been here longer than I, may have heard it all before, hence their more negative reaction.

Secondly, and more to the point, of course the sensors in 5 years will be better, but Tesla aren't done yet, are they? I've observed since the debut of the Model S that it's in a state of continual improvement - much to purchasers dismay at times - and I fully expect the sensors to evolve likewise. On this basis, Nidhi's point is, well pointless.

thanks for the first paragraph...

yes... if they manage to proceed down this track then they will continuously improve over time. but I think there is something really interesting happening here that's going unnoticed that you may have exposed a bit... computer technology is increasingly being embedded into cars... we are right now observing virtually all existing Tesla vehicles becoming obsolete (to some degree) since they will not be able to be retrofitted... and let's say Tesla iterates over the sensors and NVidia iterates over the controllers... then what happens in a few years when it's realized that the new hardware is the new "best" and can not be retrofitted into the existing cars?

so here's what I'm thinking:

it seems like Tesla is dramatically lowering the life-span of the automobile by increasing the amount of computer technology physically embedded in them.

the PC industry is basically dead... and it is the perfect case study for how consumer electronics and tech "hardware" companies that do rapid upgrades with increasing frequency eventually cannibalize themselves. so what happens to the value of your car that you buy today when in 2018 it's non-upgradable onboard systems are no longer considered useful?

a car normally depreciates over 10 to 15 years... by doing fast hardware iterations on these vehicles... they are basically reducing this to 3 to 5 years. unlike PCs which we paid hundreds to a couple thousand dollars that would be worthless in 3 years... cars cost 10s of thousands of dollars... as consumers... shortening the life-span of a vehicle would be very costly.

so it seems like rapid hardware iterations would be bad for anyone actually buying a Tesla... making leasing better... but then the bad is just transferred to those providing the lease. I will not be buying a Tesla... but if I was... I'd wait about 3 to 4 years since it's possible that the car I bought today for $85k might be worth very little by then.

 

[myusername]

Let's stop buying cellphones and laptops as within 5 years AR and wearables will kill them.

in the early 2000s at any point I owned the equivalent hardware of about 10 PCs... by 2005 that went to 1 PC and 1 laptop... now I personally own one laptop that I bought 4 years ago and have a laptop provided by work. I bought a cell phone about 6 months ago... the one I had before that I successfully kept for 3 years without breaking it.

if you are not familiar with the life-span of consumer electronics or with how computer technologies evolve... then you do not understand one of the big risks around Tesla for not only the computer/sensor driven automation but also the rest of the technology in the vehicle.

 

[Runarbt]

thanks for the first paragraph...

yes... if they manage to proceed down this track then they will continuously improve over time. but I think there is something really interesting happening here that's going unnoticed that you may have exposed a bit... computer technology is increasingly being embedded into cars... we are right now observing virtually all existing Tesla vehicles becoming obsolete (to some degree) since they will not be able to be retrofitted... and let's say Tesla iterates over the sensors and NVidia iterates over the controllers... then what happens in a few years when it's realized that the new hardware is the new "best" and can not be retrofitted into the existing cars?

so here's what I'm thinking:

it seems like Tesla is dramatically lowering the life-span of the automobile by increasing the amount of computer technology physically embedded in them.

the PC industry is basically dead... and it is the perfect case study for how consumer electronics and tech "hardware" companies that do rapid upgrades with increasing frequency eventually cannibalize themselves. so what happens to the value of your car that you buy today when in 2018 it's non-upgradable onboard systems are no longer considered useful?

a car normally depreciates over 10 to 15 years... by doing fast hardware iterations on these vehicles... they are basically reducing this to 3 to 5 years. unlike PCs which we paid hundreds to a couple thousand dollars that would be worthless in 3 years... cars cost 10s of thousands of dollars... as consumers... shortening the life-span of a vehicle would be very costly.

so it seems like rapid hardware iterations would be bad for anyone actually buying a Tesla... making leasing better... but then the bad is just transferred to those providing the lease. I will not be buying a Tesla... but if I was... I'd wait about 3 to 4 years since it's possible that the car I bought today for $85k might be worth very little by then.

How does new hardware and functions make aN older car obsolete? Does this prevent older cars from working, will they be banned from the road? How will my pre-AP1.0 car become obsolete from tesla introducing AP 2.0?

U cant compare pc to cars this way. Cars will always maintain their primary function, no matter how fast new functions are added.;-)

 

[myusername]

How does new hardware and functions make a car obsolete? Does this prevent older cars from working, will they be banned from the road? How will my pre-AP1.0 car loose its driving function from tesla introducingAP 2.0?

U can compare pc to cars. Cars will always maintain their prinary function.

I read an article about a year ago on just this subject... it stated it better than I will on a message board... but it was basically around the value of used cars from the 2010/2012 era and how putting USB ports in them wasn't even considered... and consumers looking for new vehicles are focusing on the "tech" in them...

you may still like to drive your car and might continue to do it for many years... but I'm thinking its resale value may decrease much faster than car's have traditionally.

 

[Johan]

you may still like to drive your car and might continue to do it for many years... but I'm thinking its resale value may decrease much faster than car's have traditionally.

So the argument here is basically since Tesla has shown the ability to constantly improve their cars, add new features and innovate swiftly they will Osbourne themselves, i.e. a large percentage of the potential customer base will delay their purchase in anticipation of the next improvement? Please tell me what has changed after the AP2 announcement. Tesla has been like this from the start, it hasn't stopped people from buying their products. The same has been true of most tech-heavy products since the beginning of time, it hasn't stopped the growth of companies with compelling products. By holding off the purchase you also forfeit the possibility to own and drive the best car on the road - this is what has to be weighed against the risk of "missing out" on a future feature. Also remember that at any point in time there's also going to be a new feature coming, that is the Tesla one year from now is always going to be somehow better than the current one, so if this kind of behaviour was driving consumers in general no one would ever buy anything.

Another thing to keep in mind; people need cars, people need to replace old and aging cars and most of these are definately not Tesla cars. So when people consider Tesla as their next car, most of these people are coming from other brands. In other words Tesla's potential customer base is so huge that whatever percentage of people choose to hold off their purchase in wait for "the next" feature there will be 10 people willing to take their place. Point in case is the 300k+ waiting list for Model 3.

 

[techmaven]

I was just thinking today... that while the rest of the industry is about to finally ship 350A DC charging later in 2017, Tesla is going to one-up them by offering robotic-plug in charging for self driving vehicles. Tesla's plug design is self centering AFAIK... I'm wondering what challenges CCS and CHAdeMO plugs present to robotic automation.

This is likely the reason for Tesla to operate their own vehicle charging network for the foreseeable future. Whether it be a vehicle + energy in the traditional business sense that we know with Tesla, or vehicle + energy as a service, Tesla will likely need to drive that energy source cost down while also offering green-ish energy, as defined as better than other transportation offerings and getting greener each year.

If you hand off the vehicle charging network to 3rd parties, there are a slew of problems in the short and medium term that you do not have the means to solve. For all those that have been wondering why Tesla has been going down this road, well, clearly Musk + Tesla operates on a much longer strategic timespan that we traditionally have observed in the business world, while also taking control of the short term to be the forcing function to provide disruptive change.

 

[myusername]

So the argument here is basically since Tesla has shown the ability to constantly improve their cars, add new features and innovate swiftly they will Osbourne themselves, i.e. a large percentage of the potential customer base will delay their purchase in anticipation of the next improvement? Please tell me what has changed after the AP2 announcement. Tesla has been like this from the start, it hasn't stopped people from buying their products. The same has been true of most tech-heavy products since the beginning of time, it hasn't stopped the growth of companies with compelling products.

Another thing to keep in mind; people need cars, people need to replace old and aging cars and most of these are definately not Tesla cars. So when people consider Tesla as their next car, most of these people are coming from other brands. In other words Tesla's potential customer base is so huge that whatever percentage of people choose to hold off their purchase in wait for "the next" feature there will be 10 people willing to take their place. Point in case is the 300k+ waiting list for Model 3.

"Please tell me what has changed after the AP2 announcement."

would you buy a used car that doesn't have bluetooth connectivity?... I wouldn't... would you buy a used Model S today for the same price that you would have prior to the announcement?... I wouldn't.

 

[WarpedOne]

Every time I read $MBLY, I see

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hxDVY9vEdO4/T4yEl4z9M3I/AAAAAAAAD2o/703pHKz971U/s1600/muttley_mumbly.jpg

 

[Johan]

"Please tell me what has changed after the AP2 announcement."

would you buy a used car that doesn't have bluetooth connectivity?... I wouldn't... would you buy a used Model S today for the same price that you would have prior to the announcement?... I wouldn't.

Well this is true of any second hand car sale, is it not, that the used car is going to not have some features that the current model has? This is a big reason why used cars sell for less than new cars. But you are somehow saying that the introduction of AP2 hardware creates some kind of special case, that it's just not a new feature but that it's such an important new feature that pre-AP2 hardware cars will plummet in value? Or am I misunderstanding you?

 

[myusername]

Well this is true of any second hand car sale, is it not, that the used car is going to not have some features that the current model has? This is a big reason why used cars sell for less than new cars. But you are somehow saying that the introduction of AP2 hardware creates some kind of special case, that it's just not a new feature but that it's such an important new feature that pre-AP2 hardware cars will plummet in value? Or am I misunderstanding you?

that's basically what I'm considering.

 

[Irishjugg]

Thank you Forbes for summing up all my ranting:

“To choose now you’re saying that today’s technology will be the solution five years from now,” said Nidhi Kalra, a senior information scientist at RAND Corp. and co-director of its Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty. ”The package of sensors you might want five years from is probably going to be very different.”

Tesla's Self-Driving Hardware Gamble: Is 2016 Tech Good Enough For Next Decade?

Just FYI, this is completely irrelevant.

These sensors are capable of level 5.
Tesla follows agile methodologies.
Tesla will periodically update the sensors and even said this on the conference call.

This article, and your ranting are irrelevant strawman arguments.
Of course the sensor suite will change.
Of course people could vomit in your car.
Of course the system will not prevent 100% of accidents.

None of that matters at all.===>Moderator-deleted inappropriate material<===This is not a valid concern.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

But you are somehow saying that the introduction of AP2 hardware creates some kind of special case, that it's just not a new feature but that it's such an important new feature that pre-AP2 hardware cars will plummet in value?

If that's the case, I'd be more concerned that sales of other car makers are going to plummet since they offer nothing close.

I don't see how this is any different than Oct. 2014 when the Dual Motor and AP1 was introduced. Resale values of pre-D and pre-AP did not plummet and I don't expect resale values of current models to plummet now. Of course a car with AP is worth more than one without but just because so-and-so won't buy a car without AP doesn't mean there aren't 10 others who will.

 

[anon]

The GPU will be upgradable - Elon said that it was specifically designed to be upgraded, either on Twitter or the call (I don't remember which), so there is not much risk of obsolescence or of Tesla failing to achieve autonomy with the available computer power. It's only a cheap upgrade to put in a new gpu in future, if it should be needed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

"Please tell me what has changed after the AP2 announcement."

would you buy a used car that doesn't have bluetooth connectivity?... I wouldn't... would you buy a used Model S today for the same price that you would have prior to the announcement?... I wouldn't.

I think you have to look at the real equation that the car buyer is making - what is the best vehicle i can get with the $x i have to spend. Regarding the AP2 upgrade - there is no change in competition from other OEMs, the only change is a better new MS and if you could afford a new one you wouldn't be looking at used vehicles in the first place.

 

[myusername]

Just FYI, this is completely irrelevant.

These sensors are capable of level 5.
Tesla follows agile methodologies.
Tesla will periodically update the sensors and even said this on the conference call.

This article, and your ranting are irrelevant strawman arguments.
Of course the sensor suite will change.
Of course people could vomit in your car.
Of course the system will not prevent 100% of accidents.

None of that matters at all. ==>Moderator-deleted material<=== This is not a valid concern.

funny how many of my "non valid" concerns tend to wind up the next day in articles and in posts by longs after they give things some thought... even having a conversation about AP was considered an invalid topic that took an inordinate amount of time... and then you guys rattled on about it for the last 24 hours... i think you are underestimating the negative impact this announcement may have.

 

[Tslynk67]

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

Not at all sarcastic. I think there'll be many elements of society that won't react well to driver-less cars, least of all taxi-drivers, for instance. Stealing them will be difficult, that's clear, disabling them simple.