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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Will be interesting to see whether Tesla will reveal anything about TE projected margins on Tuesday. They have been playing things close to the vest (for good reason I believe) -- we'll see if that continues.

I think that they will continue to keep their cards to themselves. They are clearly very strategic and shrewd in their approach, trying to lower price just enough to undercut competition and have enough demand to sell whatever production capacity they are planning to have. It is absolutely clear that approach is not setting price based on cost and customary margin.

Due to their smart investing in production capacity and excellent engineering they have luxury of undercoating competition AND spurring demand just enough to deploy all they can produce, while enjoying margins high enough to have every incentive to keep quiet about them.

As an investor, I could not be happier about this.
 
My guess next week we will still see continue down pressure on SP as this did not clear anything up with SCTY and the cash drain concerns (wasn't suppose to).

One would have to be ignorant, dense, stubborn or purposely obtuse to not to get it at this point. Good thing everyone is trying to do better each and every day of their lives like good human beings. ;)
 
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Why do you think is their motive in keeping positive news so secretive ? It would have prevented more FUD and damage done to the SP if released earlier as a fresh catalyst.

As we have witnessed FUD can be made of positive news. By releasing information bit-by-bit short sellers will spin in circles and their game will be easier to expose.
 
Elon did say you can walk on it. Check his twitter feed with replies, someone asked if he could walk on this roof and Elon replied yes. Also mentioned heating wires can be incorporated like car back window heaters and would still be net positive and keep snow off the roof in winter. Also confirmed it works in all climates and is extremely durable, probably longer than the house.
There is even a demo of ball weight dropping on popular tiles and the glass coming out best.
 
I think that they will continue to keep their cards to themselves. They are clearly very strategic and shrewd in their approach, trying to lower price just enough to undercut competition and have enough demand to sell whatever production capacity they are planning to have. It is absolutely clear that approach is not setting price based on cost and customary margin.

Due to their smart investing in production capacity and excellent engineering they have luxury of undercoating competition AND spurring demand just enough to deploy all they can produce, while enjoying margins high enough to have every incentive to keep quiet about them.

As an investor, I could not be happier about this.

Sound like a good strategy, however, $5500 for 13.8kW integrated storage that cuts down on labor and external hardware is really cheap compared to their competitors.
 
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One would have to be ignorant, dense, stubborn or purposely obtuse to not to get it at this point. Good thing everyone is trying to do better each and every day of their lives like the good human beings. ;)
Or not. If this view isn't so prevalent why would we have such negative bias in the media/analyst community and depressed SP. (And not to mention here where it's predominant bulls) You do not have to believe in this while at the same time know what's reality.
 
Sound like a good strategy, however, $5500 for 13.8kW integrated storage that cuts down on labor and external hardware is really cheap.

If Powerwall 2.0 is exclusive to Tesla, it will drive solar sales.

What adds a lot of cost to powerwall in the real world is adding house circuit control. It requires a subpanel and many people also want automatic switching in a power failure.
 
Thanks. But I'm still doubtful that a glass-like surface can be safely walked on except on a low pitch roof.

Because we all walk on our roofs at least once a week. And we especially enjoy doing it without any sort of safety harness/gear.

Your focus reminds me of the time when so many were concerned about that one trip they make every six months of 800 miles, when they never stop to eat, drink or pee, and therefore EVs just will not work. If you can't play football on your roof, then it's got to be crap.

Without explaining interconnects and power optimizers, this wasn't a product announcement but an aspiration. Without the solarcity purchase we would not have heard about this product now. The devil is in the details, which are apparently "undecided".

Because Team Tesla and Team Solar City won't ever be able to figure it out. And certainly there's zero chance they already do and just simply chose not to go into those details.

And yes, of course this was about the merger. I thought that was abundantly clear to anyone who was aware the merger is about to take place. Especially when Elon has gone to great lengths to convince shareholders on multiple occasions that desirability and no-brainer of the merger.
 
given the generally bad perception of the SC merger, in combination with the SP drop after the merger talks have been announced and the more lasting drop after the managements agreed, it seems obvious to me that some large investors want to reduce or sell their stocks and diversify away from tesla. This become more evident as there have been a lot great news in the last time but the stock price is still down. I don't think this is due to shorties because the short argument gets weaker(long term shorts) and think large investors use higher SP from good news to reduce.
Someone in this thread pointed out, that it may be Baillie Clifford. I think it's also possible that GS reduced further or sold completely. I wonder if you guys know any way of figuring out who sells and in which volumes during a quarter? maybe some websites with gossip. i am actually quite a newbie so anything could help me. of course there are 13F filings every quarter but i don't know how trustworthy they are and you have no clue for full 3 months.

Another thing i am curious about is the number of diluted shares outstanding. i guess the difference to basic shares is because of new accounting and it shows the convertibles out there (mainly 2019 and 2021, 2018 is almost payed as far as i know), but i'm not sure about the change in basic shares up to almost 149 from 140 a quarter ago. (I think the capital raise was from 132,5 to 140) so where does this come from? elon's ceo grant and other sbc?
 
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I think that they will continue to keep their cards to themselves. They are clearly very strategic and shrewd in their approach, trying to lower price just enough to undercut competition and have enough demand to sell whatever production capacity they are planning to have. It is absolutely clear that approach is not setting price based on cost and customary margin.

Due to their smart investing in production capacity and excellent engineering they have luxury of undercoating competition AND spurring demand just enough to deploy all they can produce, while enjoying margins high enough to have every incentive to keep quiet about them.

As an investor, I could not be happier about this.

That all sounds right to me. And if the competition thinks this is a money losing venture, that is a competitive advantage for Tesla.
 
Does anyone here know what you would have to do to install Powerwall 2 in a grid-tie solar system and also use it for the disaster backup scenario? I understand that Powerwall 2 has an included inverter, but that is used to convert the DC output of the batteries to AC. The input to charging the batteries is AC, so that power will come from the existing inverter(s) in the solar array.

In my grid-tie system, the SunPower inverters convert DC from the panels to AC only when they sense the presence of AC power from the grid. This protects the utility company lineman from getting zapped by a distributed power generation source he doesn't know about. This works fine in the load-shifting case because the grid is functioning. But in the disaster case the grid is down and therefore my existing inverters won't allow the solar panels to charge the Powerwall.

My assumption is that I will have to change out one or more inverters to more complex ones that protect the grid but also allow the charging of the Powerwall. Can anyone refer me to specific products that provide this function? While the specifics are slightly OT, it does indicate a potential obstacle to adoption of Powerwall into existing solar arrays.
 
Does anyone here know what you would have to do to install Powerwall 2 in a grid-tie solar system and also use it for the disaster backup scenario? I understand that Powerwall 2 has an included inverter, but that is used to convert the DC output of the batteries to AC. The input to charging the batteries is AC, so that power will come from the existing inverter(s) in the solar array.

In my grid-tie system, the SunPower inverters convert DC from the panels to AC only when they sense the presence of AC power from the grid. This protects the utility company lineman from getting zapped by a distributed power generation source he doesn't know about. This works fine in the load-shifting case because the grid is functioning. But in the disaster case the grid is down and therefore my existing inverters won't allow the solar panels to charge the Powerwall.

My assumption is that I will have to change out one or more inverters to more complex ones that protect the grid but also allow the charging of the Powerwall. Can anyone refer me to specific products that provide this function? While the specifics are slightly OT, it does indicate a potential obstacle to adoption of Powerwall into existing solar arrays.

wrong thread
 
Why do you think is their motive in keeping positive (TE) news so secretive ? It would have prevented more FUD and damage done to the SP if released earlier as a fresh catalyst.

My guess is the future for TE look so insanely good.. they just can express it without looking... well, insane. :rolleyes: and ppl say things along these lines already about Elon. Not worth giving them any more amunition.

Better to let the numbers speak for themselves when they are real.. not sizzle so they can be used as fud ammunition, but as propper tasty undisputable real steak (or in this case perhaps filet mignon).
 
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Sound like a good strategy, however, $5500 for 13.8kW integrated storage that cuts down on labor and external hardware is really cheap compared to their competitors.

We are saying the same thing. It might not be clear if you missed my other posts upthread. By undercutting competition I actually mean pricing their BES products just below competitor's cost.
 
There was no mention in the presentation as to whether these solar roofs were operational or not. I think it could have really helped if Elon was able to say (as he did with last year's Power Wall reveal; I loved that moment) that these homes' roofs were now actually producing electricity, and the lights from within were powered by that day's solar production. Maybe that was a given, but it didn't seem obvious to me. It seemed a little too staged. Are they still actually not quite there yet?

I think if the solar roofs were operational that Elon would have mentioned that and even showed the power generation. As is though, it seems these were early proof-of-concept roofs that show that solar roofs can look amazing. I think there's still a lot of work to get done.

Btw, I was at the event last night. Hanging with @FredTMC and his wife. Fun time. Great event with great food and not too crowded.

The roofs looked amazing! Even better in person. I couldn't tell that they were solar roofs before the presentation. Out of the 4 houses I speculated that maybe one or two of the houses might have solar roofs but "for sure" not all of them. When Elon said they were all solar roofs, people around me were in shock and disbelief. Guy next to me kept saying "holy sh**, they look amazing." He couldn't stop repeating himself.

The roofs looked better than normal roofs. Everyone at the event was impressed at how good the roofs looked.

I spent a lot of time talking to a Tesla engineer who was answering questions about the new powerwall. The Powerwall 2.0 looks like a hugely improved product over Powerwall 1.0. Looks like the inverter is a 5000 way DC to AC inverter so that battery power can be fed into house (or grid). However, of installing solar you'll still need an inverter for your solar panel system, I was told.

The Tesla engineer said that Powerwall 1.0 install costs we're roughly $7-8k, largely due to the need to install another inverter. So with the new Powerwall, install costs go down dramatically since the inverter is built-in the the Powerwall.

I was also told the solar roof was largely a Solarcity product, meaning development was largely done at Solarcity.
 
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