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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Seem like Tesla will become a company that helps others to build the machine that builds the machine ...
Tesla acquires a German automation company to accelerate vehicle production

Grohmann works with a number of other automotive manufacturers, as well as semiconductor and life-science companies, and the company will continue to work with outside clients, including those in the automotive industry.

i don't think so. grohman certainly has contracts and if it's a good business why should they discontinue it? but i think over time, tesla will shift the main focus towards developing systems designed for their vehicles.
in my opinion the more important information in this article is:
"Musk said his company is also in the early stages of planning a combined battery and vehicle factory — a “Gigafactory 2” — to be located in Europe."
 
Comparing Tesla to Apple is an interesting exercise.

Apple entered a low-margin market with the iPhone. But in reality, Apple came in with an entirely new product that supplanted those low-margin products....it's just that most people didn't recognize that as such. Tesla is in a similar situation by introducing compelling EVs in an ICE industry.

The key difference is that it was not tremendously difficult for Samsung to enter that new market with a product that could compete with Apple in relatively short order. OEMs, on the other hand, have looked at this closely and decided that they will only come to market with a compelling product when they literally have no other choice (i.e., by regulation). They know that the path to mass-producing compelling EVs takes ungodly amounts of cash over several years.

When they do come to market, Tesla will be producing vehicles far cheaper than Audi, M/B or BMW could possibly hope to....which is a far different situation than Apple.

The primary concern as an investor in TSLA is if they sell vehicles below market price for mass adoption. It was the only decent question that John Lovallo of BofA ever asked on a conference call, which was 'if demand is through the roof, why not sell the cars at a higher price point?' (I think it was him). Tesla could most likely sell the 3 for $5-10k more than estimated price and still not meet demand for the first 2-3 years.
 
i don't think so. grohman certainly has contracts and if it's a good business why should they discontinue it? but i think over time, tesla will shift the main focus towards developing systems designed for their vehicles.

I don't think so, when you automated the sh***** out of your fabrics anyway why not monetize on it? Especially in the life sciences space with more and more complex stuff to manufacture like CAR-T cells, TCR cells, IPs cells and so on.
 
Comparing Tesla to Apple is an interesting exercise.

Apple entered a low-margin market with the iPhone. But in reality, Apple came in with an entirely new product that supplanted those low-margin products....it's just that most people didn't recognize that as such. Tesla is in a similar situation by introducing compelling EVs in an ICE industry.

The key difference is that it was not tremendously difficult for Samsung to enter that new market with a product that could compete with Apple in relatively short order. OEMs, on the other hand, have looked at this closely and decided that they will only come to market with a compelling product when they literally have no other choice (i.e., by regulation). They know that the path to mass-producing compelling EVs takes ungodly amounts of cash over several years.

When they do come to market, Tesla will be producing vehicles far cheaper than Audi, M/B or BMW could possibly hope to....which is a far different situation than Apple.

The primary concern as an investor in TSLA is if they sell vehicles below market price for mass adoption. It was the only decent question that John Lovallo of BofA ever asked on a conference call, which was 'if demand is through the roof, why not sell the cars at a higher price point?' (I think it was him). Tesla could most likely sell the 3 for $5-10k more than estimated price and still not meet demand for the first 2-3 years.
the only thing interesting about comparing Apple to X-company is how many times this has occurred... and how many times it was wrong.

under normal circumstances... just like this one... there's a high-level generalization of what happened with the iphone that then gets compared to a high-level version of what's happening with X-company.

here's a more interesting comparison to Apple: any company that is considered likely to be the next Apple and the CEO likely to be the next Jobs... while trading at 10x to 30x its market competitors with broken financials... is likely in a bubble.
 
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Tesla owners wouldn't be able to drive on most roads if this bill passes

If anyone doesn't doubt the danger Trump and conservative lawmakers pose to Tesla and TSLA stock, look no further than this bill.

Ohio lawmaker proposes bill to fine all Tesla owners on Ohio public roads with any sort of self-driving hardware to be fined $10,000 per day, even if being driven manually.

Just like most other anti-Tesla legislation, don't be surprised if other red states decide to take up similar initiatives.

This bill does not apply to Tesla since AP1 and AP2 are not autonomous systems and they do require "active control" of human operator.
 
Looking at the feedback for these posts:
DaveT's (Helpful x 3, Informative x 3, Like x 3, Funny x 1)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1818449/

WarpedOne's (Love x 15, Like x 12, Dislike x 5, Informative x 1)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1818515/

It might appear that this board is full of zealots defending the church of musk, but WarpedOne's points were irrefutable. Back in 2015 SA was full of naysayers saying that the other manufacturers were operating in stealth mode and won't release a tesla-fighter until it was good and ready for sale. The only thing that came close was the bolt and they just entered production last week. Everyone else simply started announcing their plans to release something in 2019, defeating every claim about hidden tesla-fighting-ev project.

So we at least have the cars announced now. Where's the Tesla Energy competitors? Sonnenbatterie was the big one, and their latest product (announced in June) hadn't even been delivered yet, before TE osbourned it: Sonnen introduces new residential battery at up to 40% cost reduction.

To WarpedOne's point, "Show us the money" before factoring in upcoming competition. Yes, the ICE auto market is fiercely competitive, but the BEV market has barely started. The utility market is entrenched with incumbents, but the distributed generating market is nascent. We're watching the collapse of the feature-phone and film-camera market replay here. Let's see if Tesla becomes apple or canon (they lead in the consumer digital camera market only to be supplanted by smartphones)?

I'm hedging that they'll actually become like Apple (pre-dot-com), before Jobs learned to be less eccentric, full of promise but occasionally tripped over themselves in their execution. It took years for the competition to catch up, but only with Apple's help.

Biggest TE competitor in residential is LG:

Sunrun to deploy LG Chem batteries in the U.S. market
 
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So... let's get this straight... they increased their target to 500k... and THEN went to find an engineering team that could make this happen?... and they're supposed to start deliveries as soon as 7 months from now?... this is very confusing... the timelines make no sense. will they have a factory next July-Sept that is capable of scaling?... OR NOT?... this sounds like they still need to figure out how to make this happen.


Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany

"After increasing our output target to 500,000 cars per year by 2018, we began searching for the best engineering talent in automated manufacturing systems."
 
PP1 W x D x H: 966mm x 1321mm x 2185mm Weight: 1720kg Energy Capacity: 95 kWh (AC)
PP2 W x D x H: 822mm x 1308mm x 2185mm Weight: 1622kg Energy Capacity: 210 kWh (AC)

Why is PP1 so heavy? The battery of a car is something like 600kg and that includes the housing too! Only thing I can think off is that they put a counterweight in the bottom to avoid toppling the thing over. Whatever it ends up being there was quite a bit of heavy non-battery related stuff in PP1. It could very well be that a lot of the volume and weight savings between v1 and v2 are not due to changes in the battery cells but the 'everything else' part.
 
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Reactions: TMSE
So... let's get this straight... they increased their target to 500k... and THEN went to find an engineering team that could make this happen?... and they're supposed to start deliveries as soon as 7 months from now?... this is very confusing... the timelines make no sense. will they have a factory next July-Sept that is capable of scaling?... OR NOT?... this sounds like they still need to figure out how to make this happen.


Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany

"After increasing our output target to 500,000 cars per year by 2018, we began searching for the best engineering talent in automated manufacturing systems."
good grief.gif
 
So... let's get this straight... they increased their target to 500k... and THEN went to find an engineering team that could make this happen?... and they're supposed to start deliveries as soon as 7 months from now?... this is very confusing... the timelines make no sense. will they have a factory next July-Sept that is capable of scaling?... OR NOT?... this sounds like they still need to figure out how to make this happen.


Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany

"After increasing our output target to 500,000 cars per year by 2018, we began searching for the best engineering talent in automated manufacturing systems."


But in their comments on the acquisition they indicated they HAVE been working with this firm for over a year.

Tesla CTO JB Straubel says that Tesla has been working with Grohmann for over a year on key projects for the Model 3. CEO Elon Musk said that he deeply respects Klaus Grohmann and his team, and Straubel says that the team has been working well with Tesla so it made sense to incorporate it into Tesla and simplify the cooperation.

While you bring up interesting points at times, this particular one does not worry me.
 
But in their comments on the acquisition they indicated they HAVE been working with this firm for over a year.

Tesla CTO JB Straubel says that Tesla has been working with Grohmann for over a year on key projects for the Model 3. CEO Elon Musk said that he deeply respects Klaus Grohmann and his team, and Straubel says that the team has been working well with Tesla so it made sense to incorporate it into Tesla and simplify the cooperation.

While you bring up interesting points at times, this particular one does not worry me.
can you provide a reference to that snippet?... what I found is this:

"Tesla CTO JB Straubel explained that Tesla has been working with Grohmann in a partnership for the past few months, and found that the teams complemented each other well and were achieving a lot in terms of automation improvements, and determined they could do even more as a combined company."
 
Why is PP1 so heavy? The battery of a car is something like 600kg and that includes the housing too! Only thing I can think off is that they put a counterweight in the bottom to avoid toppling the thing over. Whatever it ends up being there was quite a bit of heavy non-battery related stuff in PP1. It could very well be that a lot of the volume and weight savings between v1 and v2 are not due to changes in the battery cells but the 'everything else' part.
The PP1 had 32 vehicle battery modules (with NMC instead of NCA cells), each weighing approximately 25 kg. That means the battery modules alone weighed a combined 800 kg. There have naturally been savings on a lot of the "everything else", but definitely a lot of savings on the batteries as well. Using the PP1 battery tech, a ~216 kWh PP2 would require 67.5 vehicle modules with a combined weight of 1687 kg.
 
So... let's get this straight... they increased their target to 500k... and THEN went to find an engineering team that could make this happen?... and they're supposed to start deliveries as soon as 7 months from now?... this is very confusing... the timelines make no sense. will they have a factory next July-Sept that is capable of scaling?... OR NOT?... this sounds like they still need to figure out how to make this happen.


Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany

"After increasing our output target to 500,000 cars per year by 2018, we began searching for the best engineering talent in automated manufacturing systems."

EM said he expects to go through several revisions of the production line. First version has been in the works for over the year. Next revisions will be the fruit of the acquisition. Who knows - perhaps the more advanced production line will be built in Europe first.
 
Why is PP1 so heavy? The battery of a car is something like 600kg and that includes the housing too! Only thing I can think off is that they put a counterweight in the bottom to avoid toppling the thing over. Whatever it ends up being there was quite a bit of heavy non-battery related stuff in PP1. It could very well be that a lot of the volume and weight savings between v1 and v2 are not due to changes in the battery cells but the 'everything else' part.

The PP1 also includes the housing, which is made of steel vs. aluminum housing for use in TA.
 
Why is PP1 so heavy? The battery of a car is something like 600kg and that includes the housing too! Only thing I can think off is that they put a counterweight in the bottom to avoid toppling the thing over. Whatever it ends up being there was quite a bit of heavy non-battery related stuff in PP1. It could very well be that a lot of the volume and weight savings between v1 and v2 are not due to changes in the battery cells but the 'everything else' part.

The innards of PP1 and PP2 look virtually identical. I believe the difference is mostly seen inside of each pod.
 
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