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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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That means that Tesla should do a better job of educating owners. It should be easy to get the number up to very close to 1000%.

Assuming that there are roughly 100k MS-MX's with AP that means there are roughly 2k owners don't understand. Howw many non owner drivers do you think there are?

Do you personally think it's acceptable that a couple of thousand owners are driving Tesla's around, probably in your neighborhood, and near schools etc. that don't think that they need to be control of the vehicle at all times?

Do you think that's acceptable as an investor?

The survey only questioned 675 German owners with some margin or error. I bet if you had a similar survey about proper use and understanding of seat belts you'd have trouble breaking 98% of people following proper use / awareness.
 
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Normally I don't want to post stuff that are political here. But given the circumstance of likely increased political risks to the stock price, here are my thoughts:

1. Trump is definitely not pro-clean energy, that's a headwind we must face.
2. Trump is pro-made in USA, that's a tailwind we may play.

And personally, I'm not a believer in government incentives on EV/solar nor carbon tax. They have some positive effects on sustainability, but also comes with some consequences. Most important one I think is reinforcing climate change skepticism of the "hoax" rhetoeric, especially if the business is not making money when taking away the incentives. And for the long tern, we can't rely on incentives to win in the market.

I think Tesla is doing great on supplying a product that provides similar functionality of others but performs better and at a competitive price. These two things alone are enough for Tesla to attract enough demand and growth. So, keep up the game.

My worry is that, Tesla's enemies, such as those cannot compete with Tesla in products (other OEMs) or those whose business will wane with the success of EV and/or solar (oil and coal mainly, plus dealership), may have more access to Trump and lobby against Tesla in a big way that results in harmful regulations/policies. I hope Trump can see that Tesla (and Space X) is everything he promised when he said regarding USA jobs and industrial prowess and not work against Elon.

Also on the topic of Trump's attitude towards climate change. I personally do not think Trump is literate in science. However, I do not think science literacy plays a big role in policy decisions regarding to related issues. Obama was a climate change skeptic before he was POTUS. What matters to politicians the most is what the voters believe and want. If the voters believe in climate change and want to act against it, politicians will too. So, it is up to us not only do our part as educated individuals in this issue, but also educate others so that a popular movement is too big to be ignored or denied.
 
That means that Tesla should do a better job of educating owners. It should be easy to get the number up to very close to 1000%.

Assuming that there are roughly 100k MS-MX's with AP that means there are roughly 2k owners don't understand. Howw many non owner drivers do you think there are?

Do you personally think it's acceptable that a couple of thousand owners are driving Tesla's around, probably in your neighborhood, and near schools etc. that don't think that they need to be control of the vehicle at all times?

Do you think that's acceptable as an investor?
Way too much glass half full comments recently. What about all the drivers on cell phones, eating, putting on make up while driving. Why do you think AP is twice as safe already. Even if these owners don't understand or don't want to admit they understand the system is already safer.
 
Bloomberg: Fiat Chrysler, GM Soar as Trump May Weaken Fuel-Economy Rule

If fuel efficiency requirements for ICE vehicles are reduced under a Trump administration, that should mean consumers concerned about fuel economy would become all the more inclined to choose electric vehicles.

Fuel economy of EVs is only a fringe benefit for most customers. Last year, oil hit $25/barrel and in some places, gasoline went down as much a $1.20. That didn't deter Tesla's sales. The fact that ICE lobby are pushing for weakening Fuel-economy rules, means they simply do not want to compete in the EV space. Forget Bolt, GM will kill it. Utility renewable solar/wind energy is already price competitive with even the cheapest natural gas.

All that ICE and fossil fuel energy industry want is going back to their old ways, which is to keep a steady no-growth business. More I think about it, weakening EPA and Fuel-economy rules will actually benefit Tesla.
 
Has Trump publicly disclosed or implied anything regarding auto manufacturer direct sales in some states? What is his general view on interstate commerce? His website does not talk about it.

He is consistently pro-business, pro-competition, pro-US, anti-regulation that restricts businesses, anti nanny-rules.
That should help the Tesla cause wrt direct sales.
 
Trump administration policies should be beneficial and not harmful to Tesla.

1) Tesla cars and battery packs are made in American factories with American workers.
2) Reduced fuel economy standards for ICE cars make electric cars more attractive to consumers.
3) Reduced fuel economy standards for ICE cars may eliminate need for competitors to produce electric cars.
4) Elimination of electric car tax credits mainly hurts competitors, since Tesla will soon be over the limit.
5) Improvement of infrastructure implies more driving.
6) Strict constructionist Supreme Court justices may be more likely to interpret the Constitution's interstate commerce clause in Tesla's favor.

BTW, Mr. Trump owns a Tesla Roadster so he is apparently not ignorant or disapproving of the company.
 
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not sure if this was posted yet,

Peter Thiel to enter Trump inner circle as tech adviser

I saw some commentary yesterday about how big a fan Thiel is of Elon. Thiel may be able to soften some of the changes likely to be pursued.

Well, I made those comments :cool:

Am I too cocky to think that Elon reads this message board and take our advice seriously? :D


Just FYI.. The lone tech tycoon supporter of Trump is Peter Thiel, who is a great supporter of Elon and everything he does. Have you read 'Zero-to-one' by Peter? Read it and see how many times he refers to Elon adoringly.

Tesla is a great American company creating thousands of jobs right here. It will benefit from low corporate income tax just like any other company.

Elon is a businessman first and his top priority should be getting the best out of a bad situation. Having Trump on your side is a great relief.

Elon already has so many issues to attend to, political fight with the President shouldn't be one of them. This is a problem to be solved with diplomacy and tact. Peter Thiel can help immensely to mend ways or even build a good relationship with Trump. In politics, there are no permanent friends or foes.
 
Fuel economy of EVs is only a fringe benefit for most customers. Last year, oil hit $25/barrel and in some places, gasoline went down as much a $1.20. That didn't deter Tesla's sales. The fact that ICE lobby are pushing for weakening Fuel-economy rules, means they simply do not want to compete in the EV space. Forget Bolt, GM will kill it. Utility renewable solar/wind energy is already price competitive with even the cheapest natural gas.

All that ICE and fossil fuel energy industry want is going back to their old ways, which is to keep a steady no-growth business. More I think about it, weakening EPA and Fuel-economy rules will actually benefit Tesla.
I'm not so sure. First, some of the EV investments are already being spent by other automakers. No matter what regs get rolled back by the US they will be hesitant to throw the programs in the dustbin. After all, the entire US landscape could change once again in as little as 4 years. Would be incredibly shortsighted to dump everything EV after an election.

Also, ZEV is a state thing. It isn't going away right now. Thus, still profitable for other companies to build compliance cars and try to build some fake green credibility. The penalties still also exist.

Finally, though the US might be taking steps backward on this topic, the rest of the world isn't. Any automaker that sells outside the US in any significant numbers isn't going to scrap better fuel emission cars and EV plans just because one (major, but still just one) market is now allowing them to sell more SUVs.

My guess is they take focus from EV programs and try to sell more high margin trucks and SUVs while they can. So, that's a negative effect on EV transition in that they will move more slowly and a potential positive for Tesla re: increasing its lead; I just don't think it'll be quite as dramatic as some imagine.
 
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Trump administration policies should be beneficial and not harmful to Tesla.

1) Tesla cars and battery packs are made in American factories with American workers.
2) Reduced fuel economy standards for ICE cars make electric cars more attractive.
3) Elimination of tax credits mainly hurts competitors, since Tesla will soon be over the limit.
4) Improvement of infrastructure implies more driving.

BTW, Mr. Trump owns a Tesla Roadster so he is apparently not ignorant or disapproving of the company.

basically agree... my only concern is the 30% tax credit for installing solar being in jeopardy. long-term it was going to start sunsetting in 2020 as things stood, but nearer-term, I don't know how important it was to Tesla's solar sales goals... hopefully, the rest of world demand will be more than adequate to compensate for any U.S. shortfall.
 
Fuel economy of EVs is only a fringe benefit for most customers. Last year, oil hit $25/barrel and in some places, gasoline went down as much a $1.20. That didn't deter Tesla's sales. The fact that ICE lobby are pushing for weakening Fuel-economy rules, means they simply do not want to compete in the EV space. Forget Bolt, GM will kill it. Utility renewable solar/wind energy is already price competitive with even the cheapest natural gas.

All that ICE and fossil fuel energy industry want is going back to their old ways, which is to keep a steady no-growth business. More I think about it, weakening EPA and Fuel-economy rules will actually benefit Tesla.
+1 for the above. Let the traditional big auto manufacturers slide back into their current ICE production pathway. EVs were going to cannibalize their own sales, so they made them avg to sucky...
 
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