Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Te MS: His filing suggest $4.8M and 18 investors. I don't know the truth of that. Can any one trigger an audit?

Let's have a witch hunt!
Someone said something bad about Tesla! Can we get an audit?!

If you don't know the truth of his SEC filing, why don't you call the SEC and share your concerns that he may not be telling the truth. Based on your in depth analysis, perhaps that can trigger an SEC investigation.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Thanks to Tesla Motors' Brilliance, Some Auto Suppliers Face Rapidly Approaching Challenges -- The Motley Fool

Thanks to Tesla Motors' Brilliance, Some Auto Suppliers Face Rapidly Approaching Challenges

Tesla's ability to rebrand the electric vehicle and push major automakers to develop EVs will hurt automotive suppliers not ready to adapt.

Daniel Miller
(TMFTwoCoins)
Dec 1, 2016 at 10:12AM

 

[Krugerrand]

+looks like a small toaster

Does it make toast? THAT is a true sign of great vehicle (as I have eluded to in recent past). If it makes toast....well, that could be the death knell of Tesla. You heard it here first.

 

[techmaven]

(Inaccuracies highlighted in bold)

• Not available now.
• Seats less people (a lot less)
• It's not 30000 cheaper, Bolt's price, as equipped, will be 43k
• It has less highway speed range
• And of course should not be even compared to.

and that's just one sentence from the presentation...

I still think the safer entry point will be in end of January, but this presentation is probably indicating bottom for TSLA.

Well, it is essentially $30k cheaper, and its availability is essentially now. But of course, they are not comparable. Anyone thinking rationally is going to realize that they compete at completely different segments and the cross over of buyers is pretty low. There is a large pent up demand for the Bolt, especially amongst those that covet a Model S but can't afford it and are not in line for a Model 3. But that is normal for Mr. Spiegel, where he does present a slew of information, but the interpretation is the big problem. It is true that various automakers have announced plans to make EVs in the coming few years. But the interpretation that such a thing represents existential risk to Tesla is the problem. A world where Tesla leads the electrification of transport and the storage of renewable energy has not been priced into the stock. At 40-60% of the world's production of advanced lithium ion cells for transport (cutting out non-competitive LiFePO4) in 2017, 2018, and 2019 and likely 2020, it would be difficult to see how the trickle of legacy automaker BEVs introduced in 2018 through 2020 would really affect Tesla. It would only serve to remind us how far ahead Tesla is with their plans. Add to it leading the charge on automated driving and it would be an interesting situation for legacy automakers with their stranded assets. VW is talking about laying off 30,000 jobs but labor laws in Germany will make things difficult for them to restructure at will. A temporary lull on the pressure for the major American automakers to make BEVs is a very dangerous thing... GM has to decide to build a battery plant in the next year and commit somewhere around $5 to 10 billion dollars. If they perceive that the Bolt sales does not support them dropping that kind of coin, they will be very late. The major automakers have been dropping major coin but haven't gotten nearly the return on investment that Tesla manages with their investments. We are near the end of the period of wilderness where it is possible to doubt Tesla's stated plans. Sure, things don't always work out the way Musk and Tesla have hoped. But there's plenty of evidence that Tesla is on the right track and everyone else is still sorting it out.

 

[Krugerrand]

That only makes sense if that's Teslas goal. Considering they have spent years working for a cheap mass market car that's not their goal.

Neither is true.

The first is not true because Tesla's path is ever evolving. The end goal remains, accelerate the advent of sustainable transport/energy. But nowhere in that final outcome does it say anything about how much market will be ours. Sure, initially being the major market holder was not even on Elon's radar, but look where we are now.

Tesla's goal never involved a Gigafactory...ever. They did that because nobody else was.
Elon's goal was never to stay on as CEO of Tesla. That's changed now. He's not leaving the position as soon as Model 3 is massed produced. In fact he's changed his whole Tesla view and has publically hinted at making it a 'family' company (ala Ford).
Elon never talked about market evaluation for his company because that was never on the map. Now he mentions a way to a $1T evaluation.
Tesla confirming working on a semi. They'll definitely do Model Y, a pick up, another Roadster of some sort. That's a full line up and then some.
First we had Tesla, then we had Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy, now we have Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, and Tesla Solar. And Tesla Michigan. And Tesla Germany. And Tesla Tilburg.
The list goes on and on and on.

The second is not true. The Model 3 is not a 'cheap' mass market car. It's a 'more affordable' mass market car. It's not an econobox car in anyway shape or form. And I doubt Tesla will ever go that route because compelling is a cornerstone of the brand.

I have no clue how this turns out, but I hope to be around to see it. I envision fireworks of epic proportions.

Rest assured the path to the end goal will change as needs be, including world domination/empire.

 

[tinm]

It is Gandhi.

First they misspell you.
Then they misquote you.
Then they mistreat you.
Then you sue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Let's have a witch hunt!

I'm in, but I want to start with you.

 

[Thumper]

GM's approach to the Bolt reminds me of Schwinn's bungling themselves into bankruptcy. Schwinn outsourced their manufacturing to Giant and Giant soon had all the manufacturing know how and essentially crushed Schwinn. No Hands: The Rise and Fall of the Schwinn Bicycle Company, an American Institution: Judith Crown, Glenn Coleman: 9780805035537: Amazon.com: Books GM has paid for LG Chem to do all the engineering on the Bolt's entire electric drive train. Who ends up with the know how to make EVs? Not GM. It looks like GM has funded therir own demise in the long run.

 

[CatB]

Does it make toast? THAT is a true sign of great vehicle (as I have eluded to in recent past). If it makes toast....well, that could be the death knell of Tesla. You heard it here first.

Nah, first they have to figure out how to slice bread... missing the basics sux.

 

[techmaven]

I just posted this chart at thecontrarianinvestor forum which I visit once in a while as a glutton for punishment. But here is how the war against renewables is faring:

Clearly deployments are rising, but the costs and margins are dropping. We are yet to really understand Tesla's short term nitty gritty intentions with Solarcity. I'm having a hard time picturing the Q4 ER as a result, actually. I'm sure that's not helping the stock right now.

Can someone explain to me how Solarcity posted a GAAP positive Q3 with net income attributable to common stockholders of $56 million, $0.48/share? Everything is negative until one hits "Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interests" and that takes the brunt of it. The filing says:

The net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interests represents the share of net loss that was allocated to the investors in the joint venture financing funds. This amount was determined as the change in the investors’ interests in the joint venture financing funds between the beginning and end of each reported period calculated primarily using the hypothetical liquidation at book value (the “HLBV”) method, less any capital contributions net of any capital distributions.

Is this repeatable? It seems that unlike Tesla's direct leasing which causes a dramatic understatement of Tesla's actual financial performance ($900 million in deferred revenue due to lease accounting or RVG as of Q3, 2016), the Solarcity GAAP accounting might overstate their financial performance? With all this love for GAAP reporting, will the bears howl that GAAP is not properly representative?

 

[dalalsid]

Clearly deployments are rising, but the costs and margins are dropping. We are yet to really understand Tesla's intentions with Solarcity. I'm having a hard time picturing the Q4 ER as a result, actually. I'm sure that's not helping the stock right now.

Can someone explain to me how Solarcity posted a GAAP positive Q3 with net income attributable to common stockholders of $56 million, $0.48/share? Everything is negative until one hits "Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interests" and that takes the brunt of it. The filing says:



Is this repeatable? It seems that unlike Tesla's direct leasing which causes a dramatic understatement of Tesla's actual financial performance ($900 million in deferred revenue due to lease accounting or RVG as of Q3, 2016), the Solarcity GAAP accounting might overstate their financial performance?

I cant speak about SCTY's complicated financials but here is what margins looked like for the solar module makers:

From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026333-state-top-4-solar-module-makers - not as bad as imagined.

 

[JBRR]

Somewhat interesting tidbit:
Trump considering Goldman Sachs president for top post

Gary Cohn is a friend of Elon.

Is Goldman Sachs’ Gary Cohn Ready to Step in for Lloyd Blankfein?
"On Tuesday, Mr. Cohn jetted to San Francisco to watch his friend and client Elon Musk unveil a new electric sport-utility vehicle for Tesla Motors Inc."

 

[EnzoXYZ]

First they misspell you.
Then they misquote you.
Then they mistreat you.
Then you sue.

You made my day!

 

[Value Ev]

I'm in, but I want to start with you.

Thanks for the offer to do a witch hunt with me, but I am not willing to do a witch hunt with you or with anyone else.

I prefer to focus on the issues and topics and not make this a personal attack on people

 

[Paracelsus]

Trading days like today are almost hypnotic to me now - where short and long term resistance lines meet, and negative and positive trends converge, with patterns that are almost 4 years in the making now wrestling with each other. This is a tremendous dance between 187.00 to 187.50 and the outcome could help bring clarity to future movements. It is also interesting to watch the chess game between buys and sells - and how it can result in almost a flat line at these watershed levels. I have admittedly taken a bath at these points with TSLA and SCTY in the past - particularly at the beginning of this year - buying in before the pattern had fully established - as I had not witnessed the game played so well on other stocks I have traded. And once again today I have to sit on the edge of my seat and just watch the screen while resisting the temptation to place an order just yet. My hope for the rest of this week is that too many short sells will be exhausted to sustain the battle - the war of attrition by bigger investors.

 

[FredTMC]

More sector rotation today folks.

TSLA price action is heavily affected.

Won't go on forever. Some talking heads on TV already saying rotation is short-term overdone.

 

[phigment]

Does anyone know when InsideEV will release their estimate for Teslas November sales?

they're up

 

[PaulRocket]

Teslas November numbers don't look that great:
November 2016 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

 

[GBleck]

So what is with the DJIA up NASDAQ down GM, F up, Oil up and Tesla Down today? I assumed today is all reaction to OPEC but I am having a hard time figuring out why this pricing action. Any ideas?

I see the production estimates are up maybe that is why? But why would F and GM be up on oil increase? Are they on track for higher delivery estimates?

Edit: yep GM F on track to zoom past estimates

 

[dha]

InsideEVs just posted November delivery estimates. Not great...