Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Let's talk about demand.

• Model S took more than 25% market share of the US Large Luxury Vehicles in 2015
• Company does not see impact of the turmoil in the Financial Markets on the rate of incoming reservations
• Rate of increase of incoming orders exceeds rate of production ramp. Customer deposits grew 10% year over year (from $257,587 in 2014 to $283,370 in 2015) at the same time as deliveries grew by 51% YoY.
• Company confirmed expectation for further growth of demand in the most mature market - NA

Thank you for pointing this out. This is one of the first things I check on every ER for years. While this is not a perfect indicator due to distortions by higher priced Signature deposits, it is clear, that ever since the S launch this number gets higher despite quadrupling production/deliveries in the same timeframe.

To me this is the strongest indicator of demand continuing to outstrip production.

PS: not that I don't expect a natural drop in Q1 as pent up reservations of X are fulfilled, those 40 grand sig deposits will disappear and will have an effect, but we can kind of do the math on that and factor it in.

 

[AlMc]

Had a college trip with my daughter today so missed most of the action. (I think my wife scheduled on purpose:scared. She was nice enough to put the CC on the phone/car loudspeaker as we were returning home:wink:.

I really like Wheeler. Seems to be well prepared and knew exactly what the market and stockholders needed to here. I like EM but I would be OK with JB and Wheeler doing the CCs. They directly answer the question..no EM tangents..which while occasionally very illuminating, tend to drag on a bit much.

Opposite of the LNKD ER/CC where there was good ER/soft CC resulting in total meltdown. TM: fair ER/ great CC:guidance resulting in AH pop.

I agree it will be interesting to see the battle that goes on 'spinning'. This is where I think Wheeler was brilliant..he did not leave room for spinning....cost containment/self funding/no need to raise more $.

Congrats to all who held firm. I hope the days ahead show a nice uptick. My LEAPS could use some help.

As for stock. I will wait a bit before buying back in. I don't see a short squeeze..yet.

 

[schonelucht]

Rate of increase of incoming orders exceeds rate of production ramp. Customer deposits grew 10% year over year (from $257,587 in 2014 to $283,370 in 2015) at the same time as deliveries grew by 51% YoY.

15 000 new Model X reservation * 5k minus 200 delivered signatures*40k = $67M of the increase is from Model X deposits. That means model S deposits declined by $67M - $26M = $41M / $2500 = 16400 cars. That is impossible. What is wrong with my math?

 

[nienco2]

These were very strong results, and the 2016 guidance is stunning. However we should not be surprised when the bear/short-backed analysts spin all this any way they want tomorrow and through the week. There are all sorts of ways to continue negative discussions about Tesla's future.

OK I'll bite, at the risk of getting flamed, and just in case tomorrow is not a rocket ship ride up, the results for Q4 are very a hard to spin positive. The Q3 call was nearly half way through the 4th quarter, should they not have been able at that time to indicate perhaps small eps profit was unlikely? and if the visibility 6 weeks out was so poor how are we to believe 9 months out? IMO AH move is short cover looking for worse deliveries, similar to after last earnings call.

 

[techmaven]

OK I'll bite, at the risk of getting flamed, and just in case tomorrow is not a rocket ship ride up, the results for Q4 are very a hard to spin positive. The Q3 call was nearly half way through the 4th quarter, should they not have been able at that time to indicate perhaps small eps profit was unlikely? and if the visibility 6 weeks out was so poor how are we to believe 9 months out? IMO AH move is short cover looking for worse deliveries, similar to after last earnings call.

Likely because it's all based on Model X ramp and they didn't know exactly when that would turn the corner. There's no choice but to slog through each issue until it's done. And it looks like it's at the point of the real ramp now, instead of two months ago. It is often easier to forecast what is going to happen in 6 months than in the next month as things are changing rapidly. They can be confident of going past the ramp period in 6 months, but they can't tell you if it is this week or next week or the week after. Of course, it does affect overall cost to then achieve the same numbers if they are very far behind.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Having read the shareholder letter (but not listened to the CC. I'm relying on you guys/gals for the live updates on that -- thanks!), I think it takes away a good portion, though not all, of the uncertainty.

The CC items about resolving Model X production and quality issues are encouraging. If the ramp-up finally gets up to speed by Q2 and Tesla becomes self-sustaining with the boost from Model X, it will be a huge huge relief.

In the short term I expect TSLA to get a bump up from some de-risking, but we are still contending with macro events. A solid Q1 '16 report in May with #'s that reflect upwards production and Model X production will further de-risk the need for additional capital in an uncertain environment. I see potential upside in early May '16 if this occurs. A Q2 '16 report in August that confirms full Model X production and sales, as well as financial #'s to show the benefit, will result in huge upside as it would almost completely remove financial risks related to Gigafactory and Model 3. The road ahead may still be rocky, but 6 months of patience could pay off.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

[...]
I agree it will be interesting to see the battle that goes on 'spinning'. This is where I think Wheeler was brilliant..he did not leave room for spinning....cost containment/self funding/no need to raise more $.

Congrats to all who held firm. I hope the days ahead show a nice uptick. My LEAPS could use some help.

As for stock. I will wait a bit before buying back in. I don't see a short squeeze..yet.

Nice to see the positive SP reaction during AH trading.
I expected the slow X ramp to have a bigger impact on financials.
Let's see tomorrow's price action.
All the best,
EV-E

 

[AudubonB]

Why are analysts so off in their projections?

* In the most looked-after number, the consensus view was for a gain of 10¢ per share; TM reported, after backing out extraordinaries, a loss of 87¢. That's pitiful performance from Wall St.

and now, the

Mod Note:
As is the case with public forums in general, this forum's administrators and moderators do not discuss the particulars of all that lead to thread changes and to disciplinary actions. Nevertheless, it is no secret that time-outs, aka banishments, can be short, longer or permanent. Bans never are emplaced because of a poster's views, the quality or lack thereof of a post or a forecast or whether, in the case of the Investors' sector, whether a poster is bullish, bearish, fishish, furrish or weaselish. The way to a ban is bad behavior, plain and simple. Irredentism and recidivism are a close to sure-fire path for longer bans. Accuracy of prognostications and quality of content neither will prolong nor shorten a ban.

 

[Buddyroe]

Color me not very impressed. I guess I am tired of having the carrot dangled in front of me. Every bad quarter, there's a big forecast to ease it - when the future gets here, it's disappointing, but THE FUTURE looks bright. When will this great "future" get here? When is the last time Tesla met a date or forecast or a target? You expect me to believe, in February, that they will achieve GAAP profitability in 4Q16 any more than they delivered the 55,000 they predicted last year? And just how many years late IS (not was, because a few hundred cars is NOT production in my mind) the Model X? The more cars Tesla sells, the lower the GMs get, and the more money they lose.

I'm telling you. People are starting to see through this charade. I'm REALLY starting to wonder if we'll ever actually get the carrot myself. You may be impressed with all the "promises" for the future, but I'm looking back on all past predictions that were either not met, or were months/years late.

My message to Musk - it's time to make this work. Demand for the cars is CLEARLY there. If you can't make a decent profit (or at least close to it) selling high margin luxury cars, you sure aren't going to make a profit selling lower margin, economy cars. Did Musk even mention the complete stopping of the supercharger network build-out? I guess we WON't have to raise more capital if we STOP growing the business. That's REAL good. Here we are at Feb 10th, and we've had ONE supercharger going into construction this year in the U.S. That pretty much assures us that we won't see but the remaining 2 superchargers under construction (in the U.S.) go live in the next 3 months. Just disappointing for someone whp spends half their day defending Tesla in the comments section of articles about Tesla. My confidence is wavering.

My prediction is $125 before the next ER - and there better be some better news then or we will go farther down. Elon may not be worried, but I am.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Color me not very impressed. I guess I am tired of having the carrot dangled in front of me. Every bad quarter, there's a big forecast to ease it - when the future gets here, it's disappointing, but THE FUTURE looks bright. When will this great "future" get here? When is the last time Tesla met a date or forecast or a target? You expect me to believe, in February, that they will achieve GAAP profitability in 4Q16 any more than they delivered the 55,000 they predicted last year? And just how many years late IS (not was, because a few hundred cars is NOT production in my mind) the Model X? The more cars Tesla sells, the lower the GMs get, and the more money they lose.

I'm telling you. People are starting to see through this charade. I'm REALLY starting to wonder if we'll ever actually get the carrot myself. You may be impressed with all the "promises" for the future, but I'm looking back on all past predictions that were either not met, or were months/years late.

My message to Musk - it's time to make this work. Demand for the cars is CLEARLY there. If you can't make a decent profit (or at least close to it) selling high margin luxury cars, you sure aren't going to make a profit selling lower margin, economy cars. Did Musk even mention the complete stopping of the supercharger network build-out? I guess we WON't have to raise more capital if we STOP growing the business. That's REAL good. Here we are at Feb 10th, and we've had ONE supercharger going into construction this year in the U.S. That pretty much assures us that we won't see but the remaining 2 superchargers under construction (in the U.S.) go live in the next 3 months. Just disappointing for someone whp spends half their day defending Tesla in the comments section of articles about Tesla. My confidence is wavering.

My prediction is $125 before the next ER - and there better be some better news then or we will go farther down. Elon may not be worried, but I am.

You should definitely double down on your short position since you are so sure

- - - Updated - - -

No one likes trading after hours
you don't get good prices with the spread
so many wait till tomorrow to cover
remains to be seen if there's a lot of covering or Not

I am not claiming a short squeeze but look at last tesla short squeeze, this is exactly how it started

 

[esk8mw]

Color me not very impressed. I guess I am tired of having the carrot dangled in front of me. Every bad quarter, there's a big forecast to ease it - when the future gets here, it's disappointing, but THE FUTURE looks bright. When will this great "future" get here? When is the last time Tesla met a date or forecast or a target? You expect me to believe, in February, that they will achieve GAAP profitability in 4Q16 any more than they delivered the 55,000 they predicted last year? And just how many years late IS (not was, because a few hundred cars is NOT production in my mind) the Model X? The more cars Tesla sells, the lower the GMs get, and the more money they lose.

I'm telling you. People are starting to see through this charade. I'm REALLY starting to wonder if we'll ever actually get the carrot myself. You may be impressed with all the "promises" for the future, but I'm looking back on all past predictions that were either not met, or were months/years late.

My message to Musk - it's time to make this work. Demand for the cars is CLEARLY there. If you can't make a decent profit (or at least close to it) selling high margin luxury cars, you sure aren't going to make a profit selling lower margin, economy cars. Did Musk even mention the complete stopping of the supercharger network build-out? I guess we WON't have to raise more capital if we STOP growing the business. That's REAL good. Here we are at Feb 10th, and we've had ONE supercharger going into construction this year in the U.S. That pretty much assures us that we won't see but the remaining 2 superchargers under construction (in the U.S.) go live in the next 3 months. Just disappointing for someone whp spends half their day defending Tesla in the comments section of articles about Tesla. My confidence is wavering.

My prediction is $125 before the next ER - and there better be some better news then or we will go farther down. Elon may not be worried, but I am.

There is a lot of stuff wrong with your post but I'll just pick the low hanging fruit. 300 new super chargers in 2016. Capex of 1.5 billion in 2016. Does that sound like stopping growth? It's right there in the shareholder letter. Did you even read it?

 

[BornToFly]

Color me not very impressed. I guess I am tired of having the carrot dangled in front of me. Every bad quarter, there's a big forecast to ease it - when the future gets here, it's disappointing, but THE FUTURE looks bright. When will this great "future" get here? When is the last time Tesla met a date or forecast or a target? You expect me to believe, in February, that they will achieve GAAP profitability in 4Q16 any more than they delivered the 55,000 they predicted last year? And just how many years late IS (not was, because a few hundred cars is NOT production in my mind) the Model X? The more cars Tesla sells, the lower the GMs get, and the more money they lose.

We've known for a long time that CapEx spending in 2015 was going to be huge. Elon said he hoped for positive cash flow Q1 2016, not Q4 2015. Now they are saying that the bulk of the spending is behind them, and it is time to make money. The carrot is getting closer, and we will get there!

 

[nienco2]

Thanks for reasonable reply

Likely because it's all based on Model X ramp and they didn't know exactly when that would turn the corner. There's no choice but to slog through each issue until it's done. And it looks like it's at the point of the real ramp now, instead of two months ago. It is often easier to forecast what is going to happen in 6 months than in the next month as things are changing rapidly. They can be confident of going past the ramp period in 6 months, but they can't tell you if it is this week or next week or the week after. Of course, it does affect overall cost to then achieve the same numbers if they are very far behind.

I think you make a very reasoned explanation. I wish I felt the same about EM. Either he's is burn't out or just not up to total honesty re: X ramp. I think it is very bad customer service if he can explain to wall street analysts the reason for further delay on their cars. If it is really so simple as he said on the CC that "choke points" were things like the "chrome bits" around the windshield or that seals around that same windshield and to be reworked, why not let folks with $40 grand on deposit know that?

 

[Fallenone]

Count me as one not impressed by this ER. First of all, Q4 performance was horrible, let's face that. They even invented "cash flow from core operations" to make it look not that bad. OK so they basically raised guidance in the letter, which is very good, better than I expected. But in the CC, I can't say I feel assured on many issues raised from those attended the call. Especially on the storage energy side. They pretty much avoided this one in the letter and in the CC, my interpret from EM's answer is: it will grow exponentially but 2016 sale depends on when it starts to grow and we don't know when it will happen at what base level. For me, I can only continue to assume negligible revenue from TE in 2016. EM was also super vague on the reveal of Model 3 as well as $100/kWh cost questions, both very important ones. The only thing that makes me smile for the letter and CC was they firmly said they will spend 1.5 b on capex without the need of any capital raise.

Well, if we want to take a positive side of view, I guess we can interpret the vagueness of EM in the CC as him transforming to a more conservative CEO and stop creating targets that eventually missed every time. I hope this is the case.

 

[Chickenlittle]

No, by EM's language it translates to we don't know how much we're gonna sell, but 400-500m is not achievable. Basically they still don't know what is their starting point for their exponential growth and don't know when it will happen.

Are you capable of Vulcan mind meld to interpret his meanings behind the statements. Funny clearly easy to see who is long and who is short

 

[dakh]

The impression that I get about the Model 3 reveal is they have something innovative that would be a competitive advantage to keep to themselves. The car won't be for sale for a while so why give a head start to copy cats? If that's the case and maybe if the feature is physically visible on the car then they'd have to make one proto just for reveal that hides it. Or maybe it's not prominently visible so just a question of talking about it/showing it specifically.

 

[MikeC]

Funny clearly easy to see who is long and who is short

I was thinking the exact same thing. People can second-guess management decisions - for things like not communicating well or falling slightly short and being a little late on an ambitious goal - and completely ignore the trajectory at which the company is single-handedly revolutionizing an industry.

 

[JRP3]

EM was also super vague on the reveal of Model 3 as well as $100/kWh cost questions, both very important ones.

Yeah, I mean why didn't he give away the company's trade secret on battery costs....

 

[Fallenone]

Why did they bring up this number previously then?

Yeah, I mean why didn't he give away the company's trade secret on battery costs....

- - - Updated - - -

LOL I'm short just because I don't think the CC was superb?

Are you capable of Vulcan mind meld to interpret his meanings behind the statements. Funny clearly easy to see who is long and who is short

 

[sundaymorning]

Spotted one today folks, they're out there I hope this is a good sign for short term traders. Either way the stock goes, I don't give a damn!!!! You already know where my bet is..