Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dmckinstry]

A push towards the $240, could be done without putting up to much capital, since it would be assisted by some short covering.

On the other hand, - this also indicates that support would stop after January 1.

That's why I haven't been expressing any exuberance over the recent gains. SP was $240.01 on EOY last year. It had gone up from ~ $230 in the last week of the year, but fell $16.60 on the first trading day of 2016 and fell to about $148 by Feb. 8. On the other hand we didn't have as much positive news potential then, as we do now.

 

[racer26]

NASDAQ still down nearly 0.5%, but TSLA now flirting with green. There's certainly some strong support in this area.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Our P100D that we ordered in early December and confirmed ~2 weeks ago just entered production. The car will be delivered in ~March in Tilburg. So Tesla has officially switched from US production to producing EU cars.

 

[racer26]

Our P100D that we ordered in early December and confirmed ~2 weeks ago just entered production. The car will be delivered in ~March in Tilburg. So Tesla has officially switched from US production to producing EU cars.

Makes sense - unlikely that a car produced today stands a chance of being delivered even in Fremont, CA by the end of the year.

 

[techmaven]

Our P100D that we ordered in early December and confirmed ~2 weeks ago just entered production. The car will be delivered in ~March in Tilburg. So Tesla has officially switched from US production to producing EU cars.

I expect that most of the last week of production goes towards overseas... that's why there would always be an overhang.

For Q1, I expect less visibility into the delivery numbers and again, low U.S. estimates in the first 2 months. That's mainly because there's less overhang this quarter, there's the higher dollar versus euro, and a lot of cars going to Hong Kong in particular as well as China and UK. We don't have visibility into HK numbers beyond small sample anecdotes. Chinese numbers lag and come out in strange, unpredictable ways. UK numbers lag significantly, and we're talking still the first deliveries of RHD Model X worldwide. But of course, ER is about half way through the quarter and there are other things to occupy ourselves with by that time.

 

[JRP3]

I'd also like to point out that it was him who pointed our attention to the recent step-ladder behaviour that was actually something you could trade on (and I have making very nice gains in options). So he can be bullish as well and while not all his predictions have panned out a fair number have been reasonably close and technically articulated.

So what you are saying is when he's not bearish he's made positive contributions...Hmmm....I see a theme here...

So I'd say he does provide a valuable counterpoint to the generic enthusiasm and is far less trolling than most shorts we've had come through here.

Damning with faint praise?

 

[SBenson]

TSLA holding up very well

Usually TSLA is labelled as a high-beta stock and it would be more-red than Nasdaq.

 

[Curt Renz]

The video of a Tesla Model X yesterday detecting the imminent collision between the two cars in front is now on YouTube.

 

[SunCatcher]

German Environment Minister makes a statement; this is what German Automakers should be building, and are not;

German government officials most often use German cars as their official vehicles since the German auto industry is one of the country’s most important industries and a source of national pride. That’s why it made the national news this week when the German Environment Minister for North Rhine-Westphalia bought a Tesla Model S as his official car.

German Environment Minister buys a Tesla Model S, takes a swipe at domestic automakers in the process

The fact that it’s an American car isn’t the main focus. The 110,340 euros ($115,000) price tag is not helping public opinion, as the vehicle has been ordered with public money through the Ministry of the Environment.

Ouch!

Tesla automobiles are the Gold Standard for the industry. Oh, and Consumer Reports recently affirmed this too, as you all know.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is a huge day. If Tesla can break to upside in a strong fashion, "the" short squeeze we all savour may be in the cards.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Trump going to pound the table on Tesla after the bell. IMHO.

 

[racer26]

Yesterday's close seems to have a fair amount of resistance. We've bounced off it a couple times now. I'm expecting us to close mostly flat, somewhere in the 218.50-220 range. If we break much above the 219.53 of yesterday, we could see a decent run - it represents more or less the upper trendline in @myusername's graphs and also the upper bollinger band.

 

[racer26]

Trump going to pound the table on Tesla after the bell. IMHO.

For those out of the loop:

Trump to unveil 'positive' economic move for U.S. workers: spokesman

This seems to be the announcement to which @CALGARYARSENAL refers.

Certainly seems like Tesla could be a part of it. Perhaps announcing some federal funding to accelerate growth of American manufacturing jobs? Much as Trump seems to dislike corporations suckling at the taxpayer teat, I don't really see what else he could announce that would be unquestionably good for US workers. Mucking with international trade agreements is risky business.

 

[A2Sirbill]

Can someone tell me about when TSLA will need to go back to investors to ask for additional investment? From what I have heard/read before the end of Q1 TLSA will need to ask for a

The video of a Tesla Model X yesterday detecting the imminent collision between the two cars in front is now on YouTube.

Thank you so much for sharing this video. We (my wife and Me) are picking up our new model S P100D this Friday afternoon. This is one of the main reasons why I wanted a Tesla. This will make me feel much more comfortable when my wife goes out in our car.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Can someone tell me about when TSLA will need to go back to investors to ask for additional investment? From what I have heard/read before the end of Q1 TLSA will need to ask for a.

I guess you kind of left the sentence unfinished. But there is no concrete need for new funds. TSLA was just able to secure additional funds of $1B in Q4 so why should it?

 

[racer26]

Can someone tell me about when TSLA will need to go back to investors to ask for additional investment? From what I have heard/read before the end of Q1 TLSA will need to ask for a

Possibly never? Elon has said there won't be a cap raise in 4Q16 (and there wasn't) and that there probably won't be one in 1Q17 or 2Q17 unless market conditions make it a good idea for derisking the business.

You've likely been reading the arguments written by the shorts that don't believe Elon.

For those out of the loop:

Trump to unveil 'positive' economic move for U.S. workers: spokesman

This seems to be the announcement to which @CALGARYARSENAL refers.

Certainly seems like Tesla could be a part of it. Perhaps announcing some federal funding to accelerate growth of American manufacturing jobs? Much as Trump seems to dislike corporations suckling at the taxpayer teat, I don't really see what else he could announce that would be unquestionably good for US workers. Mucking with international trade agreements is risky business.

Thinking some more about this: What could Trump possibly announce? He hasn't yet been sworn in, so this announcement would be something within the power of P-EOTUS and without the approval of congress, even once he IS sworn in, there's only so much he could do as POTUS.

I have a thought that just came through my head about the identity of the mystery buyer behind the current TSLA $10/wk staircase trend.

The tech mogul meeting with Trump happened on December 14th, right around the same time as the current trend broke out of the general noise level of the stock.

The seating chart at Trump’s table of tech giants

TSLA was the only publically traded company represented that actually has significant US manufacturing.

He can't do much as P-EOTUS, but Trump controls significant investing clout through the Trump Organization...

 

[racer26]

Thank you so much for sharing this video. We (my wife and Me) are picking up our new model S P100D this Friday afternoon. This is one of the main reasons why I wanted a Tesla. This will make me feel much more comfortable when my wife goes out in our car.

Can you share with us your VIN (or at least, the VIN without the last 2-3 digits?) Picking up your P100D on Friday afternoon would make you one of the last deliveries in the 4th quarter.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Can you share with us your VIN (or at least, the VIN without the last 2-3 digits?) Picking up your P100D on Friday afternoon would make you one of the last deliveries in the 4th quarter.

I'm picking up VIN 173215 on Friday in Houston. There have certainly been higher VINs delivered well before mine.

If you want to delve into VINs a little further check out the spreadsheet: Model S Order & Delivery 2016

 

[vgrinshpun]

Possibly never? Elon has said there won't be a cap raise in 4Q16 (and there wasn't) and that there probably won't be one in 1Q17 or 2Q17 unless market conditions make it a good idea for derisking the business.

You've likely been reading the arguments written by the shorts that don't believe Elon.



Thinking some more about this: What could Trump possibly announce? He hasn't yet been sworn in, so this announcement would be something within the power of P-EOTUS and without the approval of congress, even once he IS sworn in, there's only so much he could do as POTUS.

I have a thought that just came through my head about the identity of the mystery buyer behind the current TSLA $10/wk staircase trend.

The tech mogul meeting with Trump happened on December 14th, right around the same time as the current trend broke out of the general noise level of the stock.

The seating chart at Trump’s table of tech giants

TSLA was the only publically traded company represented that actually has significant US manufacturing.

He can't do much as P-EOTUS, but Trump controls significant investing clout through the Trump Organization...

The march up actually started on December 5th.

 

[racer26]

The march up actually started on December 5th.

Yes, but when you look at it on the 3 month and 1 year views, Dec 14 is roughly where it broke out of the overall down trend. I could believe that Dec 5-14 was just the random noise, and 14-today was the deliberate actions of a big player.