dc_h
Active Member
Good work Curt and Bonnie for raising visibility! Awesome to see social media work well.
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Almost two weeks passed, two production X VIN 2xx (264/251) to be delivered tomorrow.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-P90D/page23?p=1388073&viewfull=1#post1388073
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...duction-P90D?p=1387708&viewfull=1#post1387708
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-P90D/page23?p=1388073&viewfull=1#post1388073
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...duction-P90D?p=1387708&viewfull=1#post1387708
Another production P90D X delivered over last weekend. VIN 2xx. The delivery report is still sporadic, doesn't sound like volume delivery of X.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...duction-P90D?p=1375454&viewfull=1#post1375454
But it looks a lot of signature X hasn't been delivered yet
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...del-X-owners-NOT-receive-their-car-yet/page15
I think the material good X news should come after all signature X being delivered. Even TSLA rally $14 today and potentially more tomorrow, but without good X news, it'll most likely to fade out and provide opportunity to accumulate.
I'm thinking the issues with the seals or whatever other parts is holding up Model X is causing a situation similar to the rear seat issues with the P85D's. Remember this thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/39409-First-P85D-adopters-stuck-in-black-hole
Many of the first production weeks of cars were set aside and had to be re-worked or finished. As parts came in, the assembly lines built new ones as the vehicles that were set aside were re-worked or finished. Unfortunately for the Model X, I think there were at least 4 major teething/parts availability issues - panoramic windshield, falcon wing door hinge/motor issues, door seals, and 2nd row seats. It could be that the door seals have had multiple rounds of issues. I'm thinking that some Model X's are shipped to service centers and the remaining parts are shipped there for final re-work and inspection. Hence the relative secrecy behind Model X photos at service centers these days, plus the 1-2 weeks hold at service centers.
One of the problems is then communications - what does someone say when they are fixing a problem but don't have an answer yet? Then when they have the problem solved, they need new parts. So then the new parts availability is unknown. Plus, your order might be one in the black hole, so they aren't quite sure when black holed vehicles will get reworked, depending on which problem is causing the black hole. The fact that some of the issues are door seals, the black hole isn't just at the factory and they can ship the vehicle to the service center for final re-work which helps take load off the factory. So until the black holed vehicle is scheduled for final work, the DS doesn't quite have any updated info.
As for the integrity of the place in the queue, a lot of people haven't finalized their orders including many signature reservation holders, so the orders are all jumbled up. Plus, un-even parts availability plus batching causes some orders to come out much earlier than others.
If the final parts are really the final parts and their availability is due to increase dramatically soon, then we could see a flood of Model X's coming. Of course, we don't know the timing.
Certainly, the fear for a long right now is Tesla's ability to scale up manufacturing of the Model 3 as a result. However, I think the Model 3 won't try to break all this new ground and Tesla has a much better idea of what they can strive for and what to leave off the initial versions of the Model 3. Therefore, I don't think that the TSLA bears are correct in predicting 2019 or 2020 for volume Model 3 production. The short term stock price will in some part reflect Tesla's ability to build the X in numbers, even if the Model S continues to defy expectations in volume. In any case, even if Model X doesn't ramp to high volume in Q1, the Model 3 reveal should provide a short term catalyst.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/39409-First-P85D-adopters-stuck-in-black-hole
Many of the first production weeks of cars were set aside and had to be re-worked or finished. As parts came in, the assembly lines built new ones as the vehicles that were set aside were re-worked or finished. Unfortunately for the Model X, I think there were at least 4 major teething/parts availability issues - panoramic windshield, falcon wing door hinge/motor issues, door seals, and 2nd row seats. It could be that the door seals have had multiple rounds of issues. I'm thinking that some Model X's are shipped to service centers and the remaining parts are shipped there for final re-work and inspection. Hence the relative secrecy behind Model X photos at service centers these days, plus the 1-2 weeks hold at service centers.
One of the problems is then communications - what does someone say when they are fixing a problem but don't have an answer yet? Then when they have the problem solved, they need new parts. So then the new parts availability is unknown. Plus, your order might be one in the black hole, so they aren't quite sure when black holed vehicles will get reworked, depending on which problem is causing the black hole. The fact that some of the issues are door seals, the black hole isn't just at the factory and they can ship the vehicle to the service center for final re-work which helps take load off the factory. So until the black holed vehicle is scheduled for final work, the DS doesn't quite have any updated info.
As for the integrity of the place in the queue, a lot of people haven't finalized their orders including many signature reservation holders, so the orders are all jumbled up. Plus, un-even parts availability plus batching causes some orders to come out much earlier than others.
If the final parts are really the final parts and their availability is due to increase dramatically soon, then we could see a flood of Model X's coming. Of course, we don't know the timing.
Certainly, the fear for a long right now is Tesla's ability to scale up manufacturing of the Model 3 as a result. However, I think the Model 3 won't try to break all this new ground and Tesla has a much better idea of what they can strive for and what to leave off the initial versions of the Model 3. Therefore, I don't think that the TSLA bears are correct in predicting 2019 or 2020 for volume Model 3 production. The short term stock price will in some part reflect Tesla's ability to build the X in numbers, even if the Model S continues to defy expectations in volume. In any case, even if Model X doesn't ramp to high volume in Q1, the Model 3 reveal should provide a short term catalyst.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah this is a common question. I believe incremental solar can easily supply this energy. Let's do a little math.
An EV is driven about 40 miles per day and needs about 10 kWh. One kW of solar produces about 3 to 4 kWh on an average day. Thus, about 3 kW of solar is sufficient to power one EV.
Now 1 mb/d oil is offset by 25 M EVs powered by 75 M kW = 75 GW of solar.
Let's suppose we sell 25 M EVs in 2025. Will there be enough solar installed to handle this? Last year 57 GW was installed worldwide, and this has been growing at 30% per year for decades. Continuing at that pace leads to 786 GW installed in 2025. Thus solar can supply more than 10 times the power needed for EVs.
One wonders in that scenario how can the global grid accomodate that much solar power? Well for perspective global generation capacity today is about 6000 GW. By 2025 capacity could be twice that so 750 GW need not be too far out of scale. But specifically to accommodate the daily harvest of solar power, I believe daytime charging will become widespread. So I envision alot of work site charging infrastructure. Negative wholesale prices at midday will become quite common. So grid operators will offer daytime charging to balance the grid at super low prices. When 25 million new EVs are rolling onto the road each year, this won't seem surprising at all. This sort of infrastructural will emerge not because people lack the ability to charge overnight or because EV drivers are willing to pay for lots of charging, but because it creates enormous value for the grid to cheaply tap into batteries to balance the grid. So this is why I don't worry about charging infrastructure. This is also one reason why future EV owners should want to saturate the grid with renewables. An extreme duck curve is a huge opportunity for EVs.
I still remember that. But once seat gate fixed, the flood of P85D out of the door, we see many delivery, driving experience activities around forum. But for X, TM already claimed twice that production is accelerating (assume TM has confidence major issues being fixed), one in Q4 ER one in Jan. 3rd statement, but it's conflicting with what we observed from X forum of sporadic deliveries and many customer complaints.
Before that happen, we should be able to sense it from X forum although it's a small sample.
Model 3 is a catalyst, but it would be much more powerful if convincing model X ramp up happen beforehand.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So what's the most important part of a smartphone for its phonemaker to hold onto? So maybe the drivetrain in an EV is the essential thing, but when automakers give up making the drivetrain, what do they have left? If all they do is assemble parts, is there much margin in that at all? It will be curious to see where this goes, but I do think some surprising changes could be in store for industry. Perhaps software will become the essential thing. Software is what integrates the whole vehicle and user experience.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think I can provide some insight into possible answers to this question. I have always driven relatively inexpensive Honda and Subaru automobiles. My current ride is a Honda Civic, and with proper maintenance it will last a long, long time. A Honda from the mid-1990's could easily last 15 years, with the limiting factor for these older cars typically being body corrosion from road salt. More recent engines will last 300k+ miles. Manual trannys about the same, and I'd guess about 50-66% that for an automatic (unless it's an older 5 gear automatic from the early 2000's, which were not very good).
People like me, who own Civics, Accords, CR-Vs and their equivalents from other reliable manufacturers, can afford to wait if we aren't on a lease. If my Civic is destroyed or stolen, and no Tesla is quickly available, I'll just pick up another cheap Civic or Fit while I wait. Civics and Fits hold their value pretty well. When I'm ready for a Tesla, I can order a Model 3 at my leisure, and then sell the Civic or Fit whenever the Tesla arrives.
A lot of these media types are not car guys, and they are too ignorant to distinguish between hybrids, plugin hybrids, full electrics, FCEVs, and other variants. Everything is lumped in as "green car" for these people.
Honda is fundamentally a petrol motor company. They are philosophically tied to gasoline in almost everything they do, and at the heart of their most advanced powertrains (like that of the new NSX) is a precisely designed and finely crafted gasoline motor. Even their moves towards Hydrogen are informed by a "refueling station" paradigm.
There are hints that institutional change may be in the cards for Honda in 10 or 20 years. The company recently demonstrated a BEV AWD CR-Z, which people actually found to be more fun to drive than the new NSX. The younger engineers said the technology could be used in a Tesla-like vehicle in the future, but it will be many years before these people reach leadership positions.
Yeah, currently the ICE drive-train is the core as no one outsource it, and there is of course a reason for that. I don't see why this would change with EV, except maybe they can outsource the electric motors with no penalty for lower end vehicles. So far ICE seems to be happy to outsource EV drive-trains as much as possible but that won't work for long, especially for premium brands.
One other thing that is interesting with respect to software... the auto industry is so big so everyone wants to work with them, we see that already with Nvidia, Google and mobileye for autonomous, apple and android for infotainment. So even auto companies that are not great with software in-house will "get help" and eventually get autonomous driving and other software products just a few years later than the leaders. The first to market can get more years of lead but eventually the pack will catch up as the addressable market is so big.
chickensevil
Active Member
Thanks for the response, I think my thought process here was more in the entry luxury category. Lexus, BMW, Audi, MB buyers that switch cars like most people switch shoes...
I mean I am the extension of that civic owner you describe... Only I was able to afford the stretch all the way to the model S and did.
The total market is still rather large. And even if you dump out the >70k purchases, SUVs, trucks, and the ultra cheap less than 15k market... That is still a very large market that Tesla cannot fill. How long are these people willing to wait to dump their BMWs and Audi's??? Some will wait, but I'm not sure it will be enough to cause dramatic stoppage of car buying.
I will be happy to be wrong. If in 2020 Tesla only sells 400k M3 but there is a large unexplained drop in new car purchases that doesn't correlate to the increase in Tesla market and is greater than that, and Tesla has some silly wait time of one year, that we will finally have our answer and the consumer will have spoken and big auto will shift full speed to EVs. If that happens, companies will not survive that transition for sure! I am just not certain that perfect scenario will quite play out like that.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The early oughties 5 gear automatics busted early with the torque of the V6's.
Paired with the I-4s they are just fine.
My nephew just sold his 2003 Accord I-4 5AT with 215k miles that he got as a hand me down from my brother in law.
He needed to replace the plugs,MAF,O2 sensors and thermostat to pass CA Smog Check.
He did not want invest the money on a car worth $2.5k.
That is the reason why Accords go to junk yards at 300k miles and Lexus LS400s go past 500k miles.
People are willing to repair LS400s to pass smog checks with 500k miles but not Accords with half the mileage because of Blue Book value.
They can outsource EV battery and drivetrain for now because nobody can make the actual car to put that drivetrain into other than the established players. And nobody has the infrastructure to sell and service such cars. Except for one little company in California.
If not for self-driving I'd be happy if Tesla got out of making the actual cars and would just make batteries and maintain the supercharging network 10-15 years from now. Making cars is something established players already know how to do so once the rug is pulled from under them and they capitulate, they can be re-capitalized and kept alive as marketing brands and car shell manufacturers.
Previously they took down nearly 300 from the website. Perhaps they presented all three hundred to a wholesaler or a fleet operator or an auction and re-listed the balance after a hundred were sold.
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Thank you Curt. Yes - I was looking at the previous session and had overlooked the date stamp. Well I guess got to pass the confirmation bias test.
'
An Indiana Senate committee was poised to vote on a measure banning automobile manufacturers from selling directly to consumers but backed down amid backlash'
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indiana-backs-down-banning-tesla-221938696.htmlREGARDS DEFEAT OF CORRUPTION IN INDIANA - THIS IS FALSE POSITIVE NEWS! THE CORRUPT BILL HAS BEEN PASSED THERE.
I have just looked at the second video. All Indiana have done is stripped out an amendment that gave Tesla some breathing room and restored the Anti-Tesla bill to its full force. Passed it unanimously and turned it over to their legislature to turn it into law.
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cgiGuy
Active Member
“In the marketing world there’s what’s called the rising star. And then there’s the phase of a cash cow. And then you end up with a dog, where it’s no longer profitable and it goes away.”
Gee, I can't imagine why this guy would get incivility from anyone.
Sorry not to add to all this discussion, but just wanted to say how please I am to have bough 100 TSLA @ $145 then another 300 @ $165 - only regret not buying all of them at $145 but I had to convince the wife... 
My only decision now is whether to try day-trading them or just leave them alone. Any prevailing wisdom on that?
My only decision now is whether to try day-trading them or just leave them alone. Any prevailing wisdom on that?
Sorry not to add to all this discussion, but just wanted to say how please I am to have bough 100 TSLA @ $145 then another 300 @ $165 - only regret not buying all of them at $145 but I had to convince the wife...
My only decision now is whether to try day-trading them or just leave them alone. Any prevailing wisdom on that?
Absolutely. The after hours and pre-market manipulation now seems to be waning. This is the beginning of a break-out accelerated by panic short covering that I think will see $250+ before the end of March.
Note: Media cycle has now very significantly reversed from the one prevalent throughout January and most of Feb. One of many contemporary examples and by the way this one is a beaut: Capital Market Laboratories — The Secret's Out: Tesla is Gaining Market Share...
This is my opinion, not investment advice but I think it will hold true and it fits extensive thesis work particularly with respect to timing that has been in play through the entire 'macro fear' news cycle dip to $143 and in fact prior to it. The only departure of note has been the extent of the dip that you took advantage of. Congratulations.
The basis of the macro fear dip has actually been largely debunked. The FED is no longer a threat to stock prices generally, the market just ignored a broad China stock drop yesterday and Goldman Sachs is recommending shorting Gold for the year (the opposite would be true if the advice was to abandon a bear market for equities).
Maybe I'm a bit thick, but is that advice to hold or trade them?
I won't advise you to do anything. But I can tell you that I am very confident indeed about holding for steep and almost continuous gains between now and exactly 1 month from now.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
If you listen to the testimony from the dealer there is nothing I heard that a manufacturer directly would not provide. If fact statements that they are a buffer and add additional cost are a reason that other business models should be allowed. I kind of laughed when I heard them mention they now have an "internet" sales manager. My experience with the internet sales managers is that they will manipulate you to get you to come in to the store and then hand you off to a regular sales man to "work" you through their normal sales practices. The internet sales managers are paid just on how many people they can get in the door and not on the actual sale of the car.
Anyway, the truth is GM and other manufacturers would love to sell direct to consumers. They just have no way to bridge from the old model to a new model. If they could legally do this and started opening stores the franchises would deliberately hurt the current business (remember many of them have multiple brands) and make them out to be job destroying monsters. The current franchises are their direct customers and no one wants to make you customers mad at you. There was some attempt at this by the manufactures in the 90's with at the advent of the internet and they all failed.
All manufactures should be asking for a level playing field, which means the ability to sell direct to consumers, not the other way around.
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