Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Stretch2727]

Just out. The supercharger change in book value was just an error. Immaterial. So much for all the speculation on the reason for the change in value.

Tesla Motors - Current Report

 

[mmd]

Wow, looks like Tesla fixed the error in supercharger book value in their 10K. This was discussed to death on SA.
https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160311/tsla8-k.html

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Love that this email was sent out. Simultaneously addresses X ramp and complaints on communication. Really awesome to see. It seems like they are finally confident enough to give people the communication that they have been withholding due to uncertainty. Bought a 4/15 $200 at close as I expect the stock to continue to climb into Model 3 unveiling. I will hold for a couple weeks then sell or roll forward as the 31st approaches.

From what I'm reading on the Model X forums, there is finally substantial evidence of a Model X production ramp:

(1) Several Signature Series vehicles that had been suspended/held without further communication have been cleared for delivery.
(2) The "random Model X sightings" thread has had a lot more activity in the last week.
(3) The above mentioned email from Tesla.

VINs being issued to vehicles going into production are in the 3-4k range, some with March/April estimated delivery, and others with April/May. I am trying to get a sense of how many Model X will be delivered this quarter, but my preliminary sense is 2-3k units total, or about the number of Model S Tesla delivered in Q4 of 2012 (6 months after initial delivery day).

Where short term impact is concerned, I would say Q1 '16 numbers will give an upward push as uncertainty disappears, but it won't be until Q2 '16 that the benefits of Model X will be reflected in the company financials. I believe that hype around the Model 3 reveal will probably overshadow Model X news in the May conference call. My guess is that TSLA won't fully reflect the impact of Model X until the July/August timeframe.

This is annoying, but at least we have Model 3 and the endless drama it is sure to provoke, to keep us entertained in the meantime.

 

[mmd]

From what I'm reading on the Model X forums, there is finally substantial evidence of a Model X production ramp:

(1) Several Signature Series vehicles that had been suspended/held without further communication have been cleared for delivery.
(2) The "random Model X sightings" thread has had a lot more activity in the last week.
(3) The above mentioned email from Tesla.

VINs being issued to vehicles going into production are in the 3-4k range, some with March/April estimated delivery, and others with April/May. I am trying to get a sense of how many Model X will be delivered this quarter, but my preliminary sense is 2-3k units total, or about the number of Model S Tesla delivered in Q4 of 2012 (6 months after initial delivery day).

Where short term impact is concerned, I would say Q1 '16 numbers will give an upward push as uncertainty disappears, but it won't be until Q2 '16 that the benefits of Model X will be reflected in the company financials. I believe that hype around the Model 3 reveal will probably overshadow Model X news in the May conference call. My guess is that TSLA won't fully reflect the impact of Model X until the July/August timeframe.

This is annoying, but at least we have Model 3 and the endless drama it is sure to provoke, to keep us entertained in the meantime.

Great! Do you have any idea on how much QC is still needed for Model X at the service centers? What I'm wondering is, whether the SCs have the capacity to deliver a huge number of Model S (5000) and nearly 2000-3000 MX in a month to meet the Q1 delivery guidance. If the MX QC is fast now, then it could be possible.

 

[geneclean55]

Interesting price action today. If TSLA is so closely linked to oil, then I am hoping a tsunamai of Model 3 reservations in a low oil price environment might change the narrative.

 

[chickensevil]

Be sure to let them know that there's only one place in your home state where they can actually go to buy it/see it/test drive it (and that's just until Augustish 2017) and that your state dealerships are suing Tesla and the DMV to prevent Tesla opening a second store (and rumored SC).

Yes, thank you. I saw this hit my radar when the story broke, I have just been waiting for more details (and actively following the threads on this subject) to be ready to lend any support I can. I will also make it a point to mention this, as it is about 50/50 people who work here who live in VA. So now that the fight is starting happen all over again, I will be sure to get everyone in the office riled up about people forcing their terrible business models down our throats.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Great! Do you have any idea on how much QC is still needed for Model X at the service centers? What I'm wondering is, whether the SCs have the capacity to deliver a huge number of Model S (5000) and nearly 2000-3000 MX in a month to meet the Q1 delivery guidance. If the MX QC is fast now, then it could be possible.

That I do not know. The last time I drove by my local SC a few weeks ago, I could only see 1 Model X parked there, and it was at night so I didn't get a sense of how busy the place was. If I get a chance I will attempt a daytime drive to get a sense of what is going on there now.

Model X forums still showing about a week from the SC receiving the X, to final delivery to customer. I would guess that the Model S is much easier to get delivered. No idea how labor intensive the X inspection is for the workers.

 

[xhawk101]

Model x delivery deluge imminent appears very bullish for TSLA imo. Trade before this news hits.

 

[Curt Renz]

Yes, thank you. I saw this hit my radar when the story broke, I have just been waiting for more details (and actively following the threads on this subject) to be ready to lend any support I can. I will also make it a point to mention this, as it is about 50/50 people who work here who live in VA. So now that the fight is starting happen all over again, I will be sure to get everyone in the office riled up about people forcing their terrible business models down our throats.

Write your state legislators and ask them how many consumers with possible interest in Tesla cars have asked the government to force Tesla Motors to sell and service through middlemen? Then insist that if the answer is none, they must remove any blockage of Tesla's business model.

Of course you can still make appeals regarding the benefits to consumers of the American free competitive enterprise system. Let consumers decide which are the best products and business models, not government or "economic rent" seekers. Point out that the supposed benefits of intrabrand competition are bogus, since the middlemen compete on markups above the wholesale prices they pay to manufacturers, while Tesla in effect charges the consumer a wholesale price. If consumers don't like the prices, then Tesla will lower them or go out of business. That's how a free market works. However, since there is a long backlog of orders, the prices must actually be too low.

 

[JRP3]

John Petersen is back with his latest rant against TSLA. Surely, we all know the past and it's now time to purchase more stock.

A bullish indicator if there ever was one.

 

[schonelucht]

Just out. The supercharger change in book value was just an error. Immaterial. So much for all the speculation on the reason for the change in value.

Tesla Motors - Current Report

Wow. That does not reflect well on the new CFO at all. $173M error in reported book value : these are mistakes he personally should have caught.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just to make it clear, there was no error in the financial statements sections of the filing - the SC network book value was listed at acorrect $166.6M.

The he error was in the "Trends in cash Flow, Capital Expenditures and Operating Expenses" descriptive section of the report only, which erroneously listed $339.3M book value.

From the yesterday's additional filing:

 

[Hogfighter]

A bullish indicator if there ever was one.

John Petersen? I miss him! What is this, throwback Friday?

 

[Lump]

Wow. That does not reflect well on the new CFO at all. $173M error in reported book value : these are mistakes he personally should have caught.

CFO was too busy concocting his new "cash flow from operations" metrics & now calls $173M immaterial, nice job building confidence with investors.

 

[vgrinshpun]

They call this error immaterial because it did not affect financial statements, only descriptive portion of the filing.

- - - Updated - - -

CFO was too busy concocting his new "cash flow from operations" metrics & now calls $173M immaterial, nice job building confidence with investors.

Let's not get carried away with potshots.

 

[Lump]

Must have been a typo made by an intern.

I am glad they quickly caught & corrected the error :wink:.

 

[FredTMC]

That I do not know. The last time I drove by my local SC a few weeks ago, I could only see 1 Model X parked there, and it was at night so I didn't get a sense of how busy the place was. If I get a chance I will attempt a daytime drive to get a sense of what is going on there now.

Model X forums still showing about a week from the SC receiving the X, to final delivery to customer. I would guess that the Model S is much easier to get delivered. No idea how labor intensive the X inspection is for the workers.

I don't see MX delivery prep and QC as a bottleneck for end of quarter deliveries. Most of the heavy QC is done at the factory. Local Delivery Centers are mainly doing delivery prep: clean the car and inspect for transit damage. I don't believe they drive the car off the property at all.

 

[JRP3]

Haven't there been reports of X's sitting at delivery centers for weeks getting final QC? Hopefully that is no longer the case.

 

[Zaxxon]

As many as 8 weeks, yes. Hopefully those days are drawing to a close.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Must have been a typo made by an intern.

I am glad they quickly caught & corrected the error :wink:.

There are relatively few people in this world that can *create* things, even fewer that can *create* new revolutionary things in a way never done before; and then there are a lot of people that can take things apart and find mistakes in the things created by first group.

I also would've loved if they've found this error themselves, rather than it being found by the "Critic" guy, but let's not get bend out of shape over this - it's just another normal day in the office. A reasonable thing at this point would be to just move on...