Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tanner]

Sorry, I don't understand. People were asking about the price action, I was reminding the group that big players don't trade in the first hour of the day. If Fidelity was going to buy up a billion shares they wouldn't be doing it right now. This phenomenon is commonly known as the "Amateur Hour".

Perhaps I should have used more words, but we've covered this topic dozens of times in this thread.

Yeah, I think maybe "Amateur" isn't the greatest word anymore as many pros do day trade, but too much history now, it isn't going to get renamed. I guess what it really means is small fish versus big fish. The big players trade later in the day.

I know, but still... Also, I myself have an incredible amount within the first hour some days.

 

[tanner]

OK if I had seen your message a bit sooner I could have been a bit more helpful about the dip in the first five to 45 minutes of trading. The one Johan and I were debating a week ago, but it's still there so.....

I said this dip probably wouldn't get better as an entry than the de-risking dip immediately prior to the event on the 30th to 31st March and so far I have done OK with calling this stuff.

Anyway, suggest picking anything that looks kind of like a bottom somewhere between here and $230 and buy it hard at a fair guess. At worst IMO you need to hang on a week for a flood of analysts to go loopy with upgrades and falling on their pre-anouncemet swords in the hope of snagging a fundraiser. You also have to take a chancer on the Q1 deliveries being at least acceptable to minor beat between now and a couple of days time - but that I think that is reasonably solid (92% confidence level) on the basis that on this occasion rather than ruining the vibe Elon would have signed a personal guarantee of payment for the in-transit balance of the quarter himself if there was any chance of a miss - which there probably wasn't anyway.

Let's hope you're right. I've also read several reports suggesting the 3 could be the demise of tesla (dramatic, I know). But there will still be a plethora of negative reports as well. Also, let's not forget that Tesla will have a SIGNIFICANTLY harder time selling current vehicles now.

 

[Blip]

The big question always remains: should I sell or sit tight and wait for the "hour" to make a U-turn. Who knows...

 

[tanner]

Yeah, I sold all short term calls I had riding from yesterday at market on open, including weeklies, ITM April calls and OTM June calls. One has to stick to one's guns.

I guess the price could settle here around $240 until Q1 ER. Alternatively we'll see strength as the day goes by with a close nearer $250. We could see jumps if Tesla/Elon were to post high reservation figure(s) throughout the day.

How sure are you about that close prediction?

 

[Johan]

Let's hope you're right. I've also read several reports suggesting the 3 could be the demise of tesla (dramatic, I know). But there will still be a plethora of negative reports as well. Also, let's not forget that Tesla will have a SIGNIFICANTLY harder time selling current vehicles now.

Your statement that M3, a car available in late 2017 for a select few, will cannibalize sales of X and S, available today, is baseless, ill informed and foolish.

About the closing price your guess is as good as mine. I have one solid piece of advice though: buy low and sell high!

 

[tanner]

The big question always remains: should I sell or sit tight and wait for the "hour" to make a U-turn. Who knows...

Why not just continually buy/sell and swing trade it?

 

[Xpert]

I am buying more shares here at $240 while waiting for delivery numbers. I think it will hold $240 unless macros get in the way. Last night was a huge de-risk with 150k reservations and counting. Imo This will give them more room to negotiate for the china factory very soon.

Or not, it just fell below $240.

 

[tanner]

Your statement that M3, a car available in late 2017 for a select few, will cannibalize sales of X and S, available today, is baseless, ill informed and foolish.

Chillllll! There's no denying that a decent number of prospective S and X customers will hold off. Plus, that's what several of the aforementioned negative reports have cited. Doesn't mean I wholeheartedly agree.

 

[Johan]

There's no denying that a decent number of prospective S and X customers will hold off.

A number yes. A decent number no. And that number will be far surpassed by the number of people whose eyes now open up to Tesla. M3 to lure them in, then they buy S or X because they can't wait. Just wait and see.

 

[tanner]

236.5 and falling. Yikes.

 

[tanner]

A number yes. A decent number no. And that number will be far surpassed by the number of people whose eyes now open up to Tesla. M3 to lure them in, then they buy S or X because they can't wait. Just wait and see.

That last bit is probably true.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Also, let's not forget that Tesla will have a SIGNIFICANTLY harder time selling current vehicles now.

Nothing to forget, I'm afraid. There is not a shred of evidence for this statement.

 

[sundaymorning]

I hope we see strong support above 235, the delivery results should do the rest.

 

[tanner]

Nothing to forget, I'm afraid. There is not a shred of evidence for this statement.

Except reports from analysts trying to short

 

[Fallenone]

I locked my short term profits at 238. filling the 240 gap is not bad, but not holding it is. Thinking of closing around 230 today

 

[tanner]

Is hoping it hits $250 today wishful thinking?

 

[NicoV]

A number yes. A decent number no. And that number will be far surpassed by the number of people whose eyes now open up to Tesla. M3 to lure them in, then they buy S or X because they can't wait. Just wait and see.

On the registration form, apart from the minimum amount of personal info needed to complete the registration, there was only 1 extra question: 'would you like to do a test drive with a model s?'. You know what happens when you've test driven a
Model S, and now there will be 100k test drives that wouldn't have occurred otherwise.

 

[McMuggets]

End of day this thing will be solidly over $240. This is profit taking happening now folks, it's only been a little over 1hr into the trading day. Once the initial "shock" of oil prices falling and the Dow starting the day with -110 points is overplayed, the rally in TSLA will take hold for the day end.

 

[yngwie_2012]

I have a feeling there is a big short attack? Or is it just making profits?

 

[Larken]

And, following jhm's approach (which I've been doing for the last 2 years), reverse question - if I want to donate appreciated shares in the next 2-3 weeks to some charities, any guesses on when price will be highest? Now? Just before ER? just after ER?.

Definitely after ER, (end May) there's so many positive aspects lined up that Tesla management can easily capitalize on.