Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

@Julian, can you tell us why you were banned from Seeking Alpha again & something about a SEC investigation?

What Model S do you own...you do own one right?

I was barred for calling major inflections in the TSLA stock price correctly to within a dollar for a year (documented and widely acknowledged) here for example: Julian Cox now on TMC . Seeking Alpha is a bear / shill community that I had chosen to take the fight to (rather than preaching to the converted). I did that primarily as a result of the IMO criminal activity of John Petersen in pumping his AXPW penny stock back to back with entreating SA readers to dump TSLA that was appearing in the news ticker on my iPhone stock App - Yahoo Finance has since dumped Seeking Alpha and thankfully SA no longer receives that unwarranted prominence on i-devices. Apart from anything else I care deeply about the aims of the Tesla mission (have done long before I ever heard of Tesla or Elon Musk) and while it needs to stand on its own feet I feel compelled to address misunderstandings and attack sophisticated vested libel considering I understand the subject matter relatively deeply. I was involved in a business with exactly the same philosophical aims and technology that was successfully destroyed by corruption analogous to perpetrators of the attacks Tesla is subjected to on a daily basis and I feel compelled not to stand by and watch it happen if I can help in any way. The two articles I wrote on SA (and fought to get published - and since deleted) were well received and both coincided with a major upticks in the stock totaling $2 billion in market cap. Essentially I was censored for Finding Alpha.

The timing of barring from SA coincided with an all-out bear attack coincident with a Goldman Sachs downgrade. Seeking Alpha refused to supply an explanation for their actions despite a torrent of email complaints and formal requests for such an explanation from their membership. Many of those emails were copied to me. Eventually I reported Seeking Alpha to the SEC on grounds of stock manipulation - the result of falsely misrepresenting themselves as a source of crowd-sourced investment opinion while aggressively deleting one side of the debate via unbalanced moderation. Unfortunately Seeking Alpha conspicuously lacks an address for service.

I trust that answers your question.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I don't care what any of you fanboys say about me. I have been right and you have been wrong. Watch the air pocket at 204.00 and tell me who is the idiot.

 

[farzyness]

I don't care what any of you fanboys say about me. I have been right and you have been wrong. Watch the air pocket at 204.00 and tell me who is the idiot.

Ban Hammer?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Not a nice day.

Update:
Horrible.

 

[theschnell]

I don't care what any of you fanboys say about me. I have been right and you have been wrong. Watch the air pocket at 204.00 and tell me who is the idiot.

How's that GM call you made several months back working out for you, All Knowing One?

 

[tftf]

The two articles I wrote on SA (and fought to get published) were well received and both coincided with a major upticks in the stock totaling $2 billion in market cap. Essentially I was censored for Finding Alpha.
(...)the result of falsely misrepresenting themselves as a source of crowd-sourced investment opinion while aggressively deleting one side of the debate via unbalanced moderation. Unfortunately Seeking Alpha conspicuously lacks an address for service.

So you think your two articles moved the stock? Ok. If you are that good at picking stock inflection points and price moves I assume you are enjoying life on a private island by now.

About the alleged "censorship". How come SA keeps publishing TSLA articles representing the bull side as well?

Three pro-TSLA articles were published on SA in the last two days alone:

The Footprint Of A Tesla Killer

Roger Pressman • Mon, Jan. 11

Chevy Bolt Won't Compete With Tesla Model S

Bill Lobner • Yesterday, 10:11 AM

Tesla: The Empty Threat Of The Chevy Bolt

Mark Hibben • Yesterday, 2:31 PM

 

[Lump]

I was barred for calling major inflections in the TSLA stock price correctly to within a dollar for a year (documented and widely acknowledged) here for example: Julian Cox now on TMC . Seeking Alpha is a bear / shill community that I had chosen to take the fight to (rather than preaching to the converted). I did that primarily as a result of the IMO criminal activity of John Petersen in pumping his AXPW penny stock back to back with entreating SA readers to dump TSLA that was appearing in the news ticker on my iPhone stock App - Yahoo Finance has since dumped Seeking Alpha and thankfully SA no longer receives that unwarranted prominence on i-devices. Apart from anything else I care deeply about the aims of the Tesla mission (have done long before I ever heard of Tesla or Elon Musk) and while it needs to stand on its own feet I feel compelled to address misunderstandings and attack sophisticated vested libel considering I understand the subject matter relatively deeply. I was involved in a business with exactly the same philosophical aims and technology that was successfully destroyed by corruption synonymous with the attacks Tesla is subjected to on a daily basis and I feel compelled not to stand by and watch it happen if I can help in any way. The two articles I wrote on SA (and fought to get published - and since deleted) were well received and both coincided with a major upticks in the stock totaling $2 billion in market cap. Essentially I was censored for Finding Alpha.

The timing of barring from SA coincided with an all-out bear attack coincident with a Goldman Sachs downgrade. Seeking Alpha refused to supply an explanation for their actions despite a torrent of email complaints and formal requests for such an explanation from their membership. Many of those emails were copied to me. Eventually I reported Seeking Alpha to the SEC on grounds of stock manipulation - the result of falsely misrepresenting themselves as a source of crowd-sourced investment opinion while aggressively deleting one side of the debate via unbalanced moderation. Unfortunately Seeking Alpha conspicuously lacks an address for service.

I trust that answers your question.

Appreciate the reply, it helps having the back story.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

How's that GM call you made several months back working out for you, All Knowing One?

Sorry, but how is that relevant to short term TSLA price movements?

 

[aznt1217]

We need to curtail the cashflow positive thinking. At most, we have enough time in the lull between the transition of ModelX to startup of Model 3 R+D spend to have one quarter of positive cash. Provided that the new delay of X full ramp up is less than 1 month and provided that no feature creep happened with model 3 that increases RD spend. The recent news and sentiments of increasing efforts in autonomous driving says that R&D spend will probably go a lot more up than actually go through a lull.

I agree. Notice I didn't say Q1 positive CF. I'm entertaining the possibility is there (if at the very least to prove the business model works). It's there as long as TSLA doesn't decide to accelerate the pace of developments (which is good Cf spend) and there is less feature creep on Model 3 (I believe there will be, because of what they learned with Model X). If anything the over development of the X will provide the rift needed between max market and upper echelon of vehicles for Tesla to justify increased cost and therefore higher margin.

I think R&D will remain constant as a % of revenue where it will go up but not exponentially because of the increased revenue drivers at this time. I viewed 2015 as a year where Tesla was investing in Startup 3.0 costs to prepare for the critical mass market phase of the company and the addition of Tesla energy.

 

[Julian Cox]

So you think your two articles moved the stock? Ok. About the alleged "censorship". How come SA keeps publishing TSLA articles representing the bull side as well?

Three pro-TSLA articles were published on SA in the last two days alone:

The Footprint Of A Tesla Killer

Roger Pressman • Mon, Jan. 11

Chevy Bolt Won't Compete With Tesla Model S

Bill Lobner • Yesterday, 10:11 AM

Tesla: The Empty Threat Of The Chevy Bolt

Mark Hibben • Yesterday, 2:31 PM

The articles I wrote were coincident with stock movements. Check the link to the annotated chart. Did they move the stock? I will never know. Seeking Alpha sells subscriptions to its premium services on the basis that its articles move stocks.

The positive-leaning TSLA articles that are allowed through are generally speaking relatively weak, and each is bombarded with dishonest commentary from the likes of Logical Thought (normally the first poster) and 'tales from the future' in addition to torrents of bearish trolling to a standard that is explicitly disallowed by SA's own published commenting guidelines. Decisive counter-arguments and rebuttals are selectively deleted by SA moderators to an overwhelming extent regardless of how carefully such rebuttals are crafted to cause no conflict with SA's published commenting guidelines, leaving predominantly weak hands like the self-declared semi-jobless 'Surferbroadband' defending an overwhelming torrent of nonsense. 'Value Horizon' by the way is excellent. Whoever you are, I salute you.

Hibben's article for example (yesterday) contains a grossly misleading factual error of the Tesla Model 3 base price - he states it as $42,500 before incentives instead of Tesla's publicly announced figure of $35,000.

Obviously to a blind man the Chevy Bolt won't compete with the Model S - meaningless piece.

Footprint of a Tesla Killer is a rambling essay. Nice to see a first-stab to at least bring Anton's blatant shilling for vested interests into some kind of objective framework that includes the concept of value for money but suggesting Mission-e isn't lost in space-time on any scale that matters is to miss the point entirely.

I get something out of Randy Carlsson's writings especially regards power services in the storage market - but again his material suffers a weakness that it leaves the trail of logical deduction and departs into unconvincing bullishness.

IMO there is only one thing necessary to bring the shorts to heel on the subject of TSLA stock sentiment. Explain the non-obvious and tell the damn truth.

 

[dalalsid]

So you think your two articles moved the stock? Ok. If you are that good at picking stock inflection points and price moves I assume you are enjoying life on a private island by now.

About the alleged "censorship". How come SA keeps publishing TSLA articles representing the bull side as well?

Three pro-TSLA articles were published on SA in the last two days alone:

The Footprint Of A Tesla Killer

Roger Pressman • Mon, Jan. 11

Chevy Bolt Won't Compete With Tesla Model S

Bill Lobner • Yesterday, 10:11 AM

Tesla: The Empty Threat Of The Chevy Bolt

Mark Hibben • Yesterday, 2:31 PM

It takes a lot to get a bull article published. I've personally got notes from moderators that my articles (identical to bear article but making the opposite conclusion) saying this:

" there really isn't a strong, well-developed and convincing investment theses attached to it. At this point, the details and observations are pretty straightforward and do not add materially to the investment perspective. We would need a considerable revision with a focus on making this distinct and focused on theinvestment case for this to work."

On the other hand Anton Wahlman can get a bear article published even if all the article contains is a list of options on the Model X. The conclusion needs to be negative (or controversial) if analysis-free articles need to be published.

That footprint of a Tesla killer was a good article to read.

 

[Lump]

@Julian, do you have a copy of the 2 articles that coincided with the +$2 billion in Tesla market cap? I am sure many would be interested in reading them.

 

[FluxCap]

I don't care what any of you fanboys say about me. I have been right and you have been wrong. Watch the air pocket at 204.00 and tell me who is the idiot.

No one said you were wrong, but all you do is post one sentence about a bear market with no theses, no data whatsoever. What is your deal, man? Are you losing money and taking it out here?

 

[tftf]

'tales from the future'

That's me by the way (tftf), just to make the disclosure fully transparent.

- - - Updated - - -

It takes a lot to get a bull article published. I've personally got notes from moderators that my articles (identical to bear article but making the opposite conclusion) saying this:

" there really isn't a strong, well-developed and convincing investment theses attached to it. At this point, the details and observations are pretty straightforward and do not add materially to the investment perspective. We would need a considerable revision with a focus on making this distinct and focused on theinvestment case for this to work."

That footprint of a Tesla killer was a good article to read.

SA apparently gets too many article submissions (both bull and bear side) for popular stocks, so they have to make a choice. I can't see any apparent bias on TSLA or other stocks. Both sides of the coin get published regularly.

For example, I had to re-submit my article on an Apple EV / car sector entry three times in early 2015 because it was just deemed a vague rumor at the time. Only when the WSJ and the FT (UK) published additional info on an Apple car project back in February 2015 was my article finally published...

 

[dalalsid]

That's me by the way.

- - - Updated - - -



They get too many article submissions (both bull and bear side) for popular stocks, so they have to make a choice. I can't see any apparent bias on TSLA or other stocks. Both sides of the coin get published.

For example, I re-submit my article on an Apple EV / sector entry into cars three times because it was just deemed a vague rumor at the time. Only when the WSJ and the FT (UK) published additional info on an Apple car was my article published...

I get that they cant publish anything they get but some authors are held to no standard and get a free pass for any garbage they wish to spew. It is not specific to Tesla.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My magic 8 ball says to nibble at 200 if accumulating. Remember, there will likely be a little pop in the am after being down 10 bucks. If you believe in the story, nibble. If not, make sure you sell the pop in the am. In Vancouver the last couple days. Passed by Tesla store dozens of times. Not a single person inside. Saudis are killing the Tesla dream.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Passed by Tesla store dozens of times. Not a single person inside. Saudis are killing the Tesla dream.

So that's your thesis, that Tesla's stores are empty and Tesla cannot sell its cars? And you want to be taken seriously?

 

[dalalsid]

Woah 201.50!

 

[tftf]

My magic 8 ball says to nibble at 200 if accumulating. Remember, there will likely be a little pop in the am after being down 10 bucks. If you believe in the story, nibble. If not, make sure you sell the pop in the am. In Vancouver the last couple days. Passed by Tesla store dozens of times. Not a single person inside. Saudis are killing the Tesla dream.

As a Tesla bear I even concede the price action of the last few days is not even Tesla's "fault" (although I warned that the unveiling of the production version GM Bolt might have an impact). In a possible upcoming bear market, all momentum stocks or companies without solid GAAP earnings in more defensive sectors will be hard hit.

Here's what I wrote on Jan 4, just a few days ago, when another poster argued that breaking the $300 barrier was just a matter of time for TSLA:

Break 200 or 300, that is the question if the market falters in 2016...

Tesla can do everything alright in 2016 and beyond but the stock can still move lower, for example:

Upcoming dilution to finance growth, macro factors/headwinds such as China...remember we are almost seven years into a bull market that started in March 2009. No bull market lasts forever.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 31

We are now at $202. Who still thinks TSLA will break $300 before $200?

Tesla isn't in a bubble. Macro headwinds (depressed oil prices, China and other macro headwinds as well as an aging bull cycle and public debt headaches / ZIRP traps for central banks in major economies since late 2008) will greatly impact TSLA and other momentum stocks in 2016.

 

[farzyness]

My magic 8 ball says to nibble at 200 if accumulating. Remember, there will likely be a little pop in the am after being down 10 bucks. If you believe in the story, nibble. If not, make sure you sell the pop in the am. In Vancouver the last couple days. Passed by Tesla store dozens of times. Not a single person inside. Saudis are killing the Tesla dream.

I think you are going to be vastly surprised when you finally realize that Tesla (and EVs in general) will succeed regardless of the price of gas. A superior product will always win out. Tesla has one of the most sought after cars in the world, and this will carry them even if gas hits $1 a gallon.