CALGARYARSENAL
Member
The shorts do t give a dang about deliveries. They are shorting a bear market. Analysis like this in a bear market is comical.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
The market is pricing risk. the risky chinese debt situation, oil collapse and oil debt risk, slow global economic activity
risk, fed rate increase risk, and the lower earnings risk ahead for this quarter.
Risk equates with price concession.
Its not about tesla, its about general market risk.
Tesla gets hurt even further as it is a riskier venture in the short term.
risk, fed rate increase risk, and the lower earnings risk ahead for this quarter.
Risk equates with price concession.
Its not about tesla, its about general market risk.
Tesla gets hurt even further as it is a riskier venture in the short term.
Last edited:
Chickenlittle
Banned
Nope. TSLA tracking NASDAQ QQQ on no news.
What I have provided is advanced notice of the news.
So you feel the recent downturn of TSLA is not market related but specific to the company?
stealthology
Member
Are you looking at global sales or making the common mistake to look at US/NA sales only to value a company doing business globally?
Renault obviously (almost) sells zero cars in the US and the Leaf had an important product transition in 2015 (which greatly impacted LEAF sales, some dealers still don't have the 30kWh version on the lots).
I wouldn't count out Nissan-Renault as the global EV sales leader over the coming years, especially once the Leaf2 and Zoe2 are launched ca. 2018.
PS: That stat prediction is ex-China and ex-PHEVs, BYD could outsell everyone if we include PHEVs in the sales stats.
Last edited:
This is what I'm looking for:
FRB: Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2010-2016)
March 17th.
flankspeed8
Member
What makes it oversold? I am sitting here in amazement watching the markets plummet, the day after President Obama claimed the U.S. economy was the strongest in the world and anyone who denies that is peddling fantasy. I turn on CNBC and all of a sudden the talking heads are saying the market is signaling recession.
Tell me how Tesla short term is going to move higher with the risk of a global recession? Good luck moving those six-figure cars as the market is crashing. Love the product and the company but really what is the short term reason to buy? Long term no brainer. But by what metric is the market and indeed TSLA oversold?
Once we get into fear based selling where does it stop? We have not had capitulation yet.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Nah. Q1 production will be full steam ahead. Huge MX backlog to work thru and MS ordered today won't be delivered till March
more importantly, Free cash flow will be reaffirmed for Q1 and guidance into 2016 will be solid
flankspeed8
Member
Regardless, how does a general market decline NOT affect TSLA? Lots of people paid for their cars with their gains from TSLA. From that aspect TSLA benefitted from a rising market. Could the inverse not cause some short term pain for TSLA if people start to defer their orders? Lots of good companies get punished in a bear market not because of fundamentals but because of the risk and impact of a prolonged downturn. Does not make people eager to invest $100K in a depreciating asset.
First up, January registrations possibly accompanied by some background of comment from Tesla on the Model X ramp and the commencement of Model X reviews, possibly awards.
Then earnings and Q1 guidance.
Then the onset of the Model 3 anticipation.
Inside of this period I expect to become apparent that the short thesis is fundamentally broken. It is fundamentally broken and that has been apparent at least to me since Nov 13th. 2015 @ $207. The data to prove it I expect to be generally obvious within this window.
Well short term nothing is predictable but Tesla will move as many 6 figure cars as it can make, even short term, and take even more market share from others if there is a recession bad enough to cause the wealthy to pause spending. I mean even their leases end and cars get old and they need to replace cars. Why not with something that depreciates slower than the rest of the competition and has predictable operating costs.
Here is a made up metric by which Tesla is oversold : Stock Price/Cars delivered in the previous quarter
BTW if you had not quoted me out of context you would have seen that I made the case (in 2013) the Daimler relationship with Tesla was Daimler's opportunity of solving the Innovator's Dilemma (for Daimler).
Daimler (and Toyota) blew it. That was Daimler's shot. There is no longer any realistic chance of either of them participating in significantly, nor surviving the transition to EVs.
They, like Nissan are road kill. Note, Nissan is planning on trying to do something to compete with the GM Bolt by the end of the year. They are up against a lower-cost higher volume competitor ten weeks away from taking down C-Class vehicles (3-Series, C-Class, A-4, Lexus 3xx).
Last edited:
Hate to correct you on this but I don't think Toyota blew it. Toyota actually wanted way more volume than Tesla could provide. I believe Toyota will be back, whether or not it will be too late for them is the question that is up in the air.
I think that is probably correct and more to the point Toyota never got themselves tight enough with Tesla nor into any position of leverage as Daimler gained, and subsequently lost.
Last time I checked (and it was a while) Toyota had circa $19.4 billion of cash on the books. Less than double the kind of cash Tesla could raise this year if it so happens to record 500K+ deposited Model 3 reservations which is I think at least 50% likely. With Toyota's futile diversionary tactics with Hydrogen FCVs they have fallen behind the technology curve and by the time they wake up and smell the coffee they will not just have Tesla wiping out their Prius and Lexus businesses they will also have Apple with ten times their cash and a far greater ability top raise more falling on them like a ton of bricks while they bleed customers and margins - and both Tesla and Apple well on the way to launching Autonomous Fleet Services. At that point I think Toyota's production lines will be on fire-sale for pennies on the dollar just like NUMMI was and their line workers and managers ready to walk if they haven't already been laid off.
dreamingof3
Member
In 8 trading days Tesla has lost 17.3% of it's market cap on good news (delivery beats)
Yeah, this market is rational
Yeah, this market is rational
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
