CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Futures turn negative after Jakarta terrorist attacks. Furthermore, Sydney Opera House is currently being evacuated.
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dc_h
Active Member
Interested in thoughts on extent of continued fall of oil. TSLA price has followed oils decline, in general. Tesla sales have proven independent of oil but TSLA stock has not. Oil declines are also correlated with an appreciating dollar, which does impact International sales for Tesla. They may continue to ride that out, but it would be easier to increase Chinese and European sales if the dollar were 20-30% less valuable against trading partner currencies. I don't see anything in the way of $23-25 oil. We should start to see capital spending reductions reduce output in many regions, but that will be countered by Iranian oil coming on market. Barring a major conflict or internal strife in Saudi Arabia, I don't see how oil goes up any time soon.
There are lots of longer term issues coming up that may improve our outlook, with Model 3 and Tesla Energy, but right now, oil and global financial markets are the major driver. Is there anything that will stop this oil down\dollar up trend in the short term?
There are lots of longer term issues coming up that may improve our outlook, with Model 3 and Tesla Energy, but right now, oil and global financial markets are the major driver. Is there anything that will stop this oil down\dollar up trend in the short term?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
About 5 more days to go to get a clear picture on a direction. If you've got dry powder. Do a straddle.
*edit: LOL found something familiar and funny. Deja vu.
*edit: LOL found something familiar and funny. Deja vu.
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I stayed up long enough for opening pre-market numbers and I went ahead and placed and order for an exit at a massive loss. 2015 was a very very difficult year for me and it managed to spill into 2016,, both personally and financially, and I decided to make an exit, neither of which I expected nor wanted. I just want to thank you all for the community while it lasted and to say good bye. I wish you all better luck than I had. Take it easy folks....
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Wish you all the best buddy, hope to see you again in the forum soon. I hope that the quote "Darkest hour is just before dawn" will be true for you whatever you're going through in life.
2016 for TSLA seems to have been all about macros. I had hopes for model X ramp up to excite investors but it wasn't meant to be. Can't blame them, the ramp up seems to have fizzled out after new year : most excitement these days comes from another few 1000 customers invited to configure instead of from reports that another few 100 customers got their car. I fear we won't see short term drivers pushing against macros until at least the next guidance report.
Bloomberg: Renault Shares Drop on Apparent Fraud Probe Into Emissions
RNO (Renault) drops by 16% now, UG (Peugeot) by 7%. Cf. VW thread.
RNO (Renault) drops by 16% now, UG (Peugeot) by 7%. Cf. VW thread.
Almost impossible to get this info before earnings since VINs are scattered because Tesla is prioritizing expensive configurations first. Let's not offer false hope to this forum.
Before you patronize me for offering false hope, might I point out that this is your misunderstanding and not mine. I never said Tesla will issue Jan sales numbers.
This: Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Next: Earnings
Next: Model 3 unveil and reservation kick-off
TSLA is at $200 and 27 million shares are sold short because the shorts are stupid, STUPID. There just getting out a bit of inner Trump.
Which bit of the hope in that do you find to be false!!! Buy!
Look, let me serve this up on a silver platter:
In ten weeks time Tesla is going to unveil a vehicle that will turn the auto market on its head coinciding with firm guidance of a FCF positive quarter and very likely a non-GAAP profit quarter too. This is because MX, MS and Tesla Energy are now selling in parallel which is a 180 degree about turn from MS cross-subsidizing the development and staffing-up of the other two profit centers. This will become generally obvious in my opinion within 6-8 weeks. This destroys everything that supports 27 million shares sold short.
There has not been such a perfect setup for a short squeeze since 2013. Justthateasy I am very sad to read your comment. Great decisions are never made out of fear or depression, it is not my business to tell you what to do but please think on that for your sake, darkest hour before dawn etc. Musk is a $billionare because he does things that make sense even if going against received wisdom is as scary as all hell. I am not crazy, I have said in recent days I expected the stock to slide further than $205 i.e. a better buying opportunity and that happened too. If anyone requires a comfort blanket: Look no further Fidelity. These guys are tight with Musk through investments in both SpaceX and Tesla. They are buying while others are selling. That's the house right there, betting against the house is not a good idea.
In ten weeks time Tesla is going to unveil a vehicle that will turn the auto market on its head coinciding with firm guidance of a FCF positive quarter and very likely a non-GAAP profit quarter too. This is because MX, MS and Tesla Energy are now selling in parallel which is a 180 degree about turn from MS cross-subsidizing the development and staffing-up of the other two profit centers. This will become generally obvious in my opinion within 6-8 weeks. This destroys everything that supports 27 million shares sold short.
There has not been such a perfect setup for a short squeeze since 2013. Justthateasy I am very sad to read your comment. Great decisions are never made out of fear or depression, it is not my business to tell you what to do but please think on that for your sake, darkest hour before dawn etc. Musk is a $billionare because he does things that make sense even if going against received wisdom is as scary as all hell. I am not crazy, I have said in recent days I expected the stock to slide further than $205 i.e. a better buying opportunity and that happened too. If anyone requires a comfort blanket: Look no further Fidelity. These guys are tight with Musk through investments in both SpaceX and Tesla. They are buying while others are selling. That's the house right there, betting against the house is not a good idea.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So movement in oil primarily impacts stock sentiment with very limited impact on the business itself. So this can be seen as a frustration or opportunity for investors. The opportunity is to buy the stock when sentiment is low.
An average ICE vehicle gets about 1000 miles per barrel and will be driven about 150,000 miles within its first 10 years. Thus the value of an ICE vehicle is short about 150 barrels. This gives us a handy way to track cages in the value of these vehicle relative to changes in oil. If the price of oil goes up $1 per barrel, then ICE vehicles lose about $150 in value. So the decline of oil from about $80/b to $30/b increases the value of ICE vehicles by $7500. Note that this is the size of the federal tax incentive for EVs. Thus, the decline in oil has merely nutralized the tax advantage that EVs enjoy in the US. Moreover if oil fell further to $20/b, this would only add a $1500 advantage to conventional vehicles. These impacts are huge if you are selling something as non-compelling as the Leaf, but I believe Tesla is offering products that are sufficiently compelling that a comparitive value shift of $7500 does not create a material demand shift. This is especially true for Models S and X, where $7500 is just 7.5% of the price of the car. The sensitivity for Model 3 will be higher as these are lower priced cars where $7500 is 15% of the price of the car. But here is where we have a huge timing advantage. Oil is presently low. Suppose it stays low through the first year of Model 3 deliveries. This satisfies the demand of early adopters so no problem. Then suppose that in 2019 oil climbs back up to $60 or $80 per barrel up from $30 at launch. This definitely fuels demand globally for the Model 3. Even without this boost I think demand scales nicely through 2020, but with this oil tailwind stock sentiment should get a huge boost as well. In any case, it is beneficial that the price of oil is low heading into the Model 3 launch.
So while I cannot predict how low oil will go, the incremental impact on demand is pretty minimal. If oil were to fall below $20/b, that could be a wonderful set up for the Model 3. In a few years, oil should be a huge tailwind for the stock.
dreamingof3
Member
279 to 200. Don't discount loss selling now. People that are scare or don't believe in the long term story took massive pain at -28%
I'm average cost 249 which hurts now but I believe in the long term story.
Some advice-Don't calculate portfolio losses during this time. To me this increases fear and the itch to sell.
I think I will average down soon.
I'm average cost 249 which hurts now but I believe in the long term story.
Some advice-Don't calculate portfolio losses during this time. To me this increases fear and the itch to sell.
I think I will average down soon.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Giving people false hope is not helpful. Paul Tudor Jones, known as possible the best trader ever, said the 200 day moving average is the only thing that matters. The SPX closed 8.1% below its 200 day moving average yesterday. So all this info about sales, Musk's glorious endeavors/feats, delivery numbers, VIN#allocations and the like is useless garbage at this time. This is what needs to be said in a short term Tesla forum. Sorry to see some people are losing much of their net worth on this stock. It is very sad to see.
It is paper loss or paper gain until you actually sell. I agree that giving false hope, when given, is not helpful....Nor is 'gloom and doom'. Short term (this thread) either view point may be correct at various times. Long term...noise.
jesselivenomore
Member
Oil is affecting TSLA's share price not because it affects Tesla's business, but because oil is impacting the stock market as a whole. With oil at these levels or lower, there will be bankruptcies and layoffs worldwide in the oil and gas industry. Not to mention mining which is also collapsing. This directly and indirectly affects millions of people.
Now even in the worst case scenarios I do not see this turning into a 2008 type situation. There is no financial crisis. However, is it enough to tip an already shaky economy into recession? The markets are certainly starting to price in that risk.
Now even in the worst case scenarios I do not see this turning into a 2008 type situation. There is no financial crisis. However, is it enough to tip an already shaky economy into recession? The markets are certainly starting to price in that risk.
Buffett buys mostly on huge dips below the 200 day moving average. His performance exceeds that
of Paul Tudor jones, so much for that .
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