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jesselivenomore
Member
The Russell is now down 11 days in a row. This is unsustainable. Recession or no recession, we should get a bounce soon.
Krugerrand
Meow
Got any children to sell? Perhaps a spouse? (Yeah, trying to lighten the mood in here. When in a room of lemmings, be a cat I say.)
Maybe TSLA at 200 has already priced 500,000 cars in 2020. What new thing brings it to 300? There seems to need to be further major equity dilution to build out the gigafactory.
I got out when Musk started talking about transcontinental Summons in two years. If he has had a stroke or similar neurological event I don't want to be holding the stock.
I got out when Musk started talking about transcontinental Summons in two years. If he has had a stroke or similar neurological event I don't want to be holding the stock.
OK, so we definitely bounced right off the flash crash lows, as I suggested yesterday and this morning. Now, let's hope it holds and pushes higher. I have a good feeling from here.
I am enjoying your commentary on TSLA and trying to not let it create a confirmation bias for me.
One thing I haven't seen is some commentary on what happens to TSLA when the world puts a price on carbon. Any thoughts on the affects of that from a short/long term perspective?My .02 are that the COP21 agreement in Paris is the foundation of that happening. In my work with a volunteer organization that lobbies congress over 95% of US Congressional Reps are interested in solutions to climate change - even though publically many may not lead people to believe that. The science is clear that we need to essentially be off fossil fuels by 2050 (I am 44 years old - so hopefully in my lifetime) and the longer we wait the more expensive it gets. Time is ticking on all carbon based fuels and TSLA, IMO, is sitting pretty to take advantage of the change the world is about to embark on. It's one that reason that I am uber long on TSLA and in the short run just try and ignore the massive swings in TSLA stock price.
It may or may not, but projections are a moving target. When and if we get to that 500K cars or as we progress, projections and targets will be projected out even more... So as GF1 progresses and Model 3 reveal occurs. As Tesla continues to develop product that generates cash, this will bring us to the next level. I don't think there will be major equity dilution only because there's going to be a period of time where internally generated cash will be put into the factory. In addition, the buildout is occurring in phases while the factory is operational so it will be paying for itself over time.
Also, I've been keeping track of CES and NAIAS and the reveals/concepts just showed iterations of vehicles and entry and focus in a different segment of the auto market. The tech that was revealed was concept in nature and iterative of the current systems today. There was nothing that stuck out to me that would leapfrog Tesla. Yes there was the Bolt but that was the only "serious" EV entrant that seems like it would come to fruition soonest. Tesla's game, as per usual, will remain based on execution.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
jesselivenomore
Member
Well, despite my caution to you guys so far, can't help myself from buying some here if only for a trade. If its a real bottom, great.
If you're asking about the swift change in the fortunes of TSLA:
It took only three trades of about 20,000 shares and one of 33,000 to bring the price up from the $197 level to the $204 level, and in seven minutes. That is suggestive, though not conclusive, of market maker + large investor (usually a fund management company) ummm....interaction.
Nice turnaround!
virtuesoft
Member
Hopefully a massive, market wide bear trap to catch the pigs at the trough.
I've found that monitoring the levels of boasting on Twitter and on here is a brilliant technical indicator. When the bears come on here saying I told you so, and crow on Twitter about how they were so right it's usually a bottom. And there is plenty of that going on at the moment. This goes both ways of course. Over confidence in a bull market is usually a good indication of the top.
sub
Active Member
Crazy to be selling here, I'm stuck sitting on my hands because I can't put another penny in right now, I'm tapped.
Actually the opposite. If you pull up IWM (index that TSLA seems to be following hte most) you will see it is doing the exact same thing just a bit more exaggerated (higher beta)...the reason is because there is probably a lack of market makers involved in TSLA so the price is less stable in ups and downs of the market (or IWM)...but because it is almost tracking it exactly today (just exaggerated) I would argue that there are no big buyers or big sellers in TSLA today at all and that it is just caught up in the tail winds of the general market (IWM in TSLA's case) but with a higher degree of exaggeration (Beta).
If it was a higher degree of exaggeration much more favorable in one direction with IWM then the other then one could argue that perhaps there is a big institution that put on a VWAP order to accumulate shares (or sell shares) but because today it is exaggerated to almost the same degree both ways (when the market fell and when it just came back) I would just say there is a lack of 'real trading' going on in TSLA and it is just following the market as best it can without many market makers involved in TSLA to help stabilize it
dreamingof3
Member
TSLA does not have a lot of shares floating around.
A big buyer can move this stock quickly.
Most of the shares are locked up by institutions and ELon
Wondering how this stock can move so much- maybe I just answered my own question - Low float high volatility. Once we hit 500 I see a 10 for 1 split to reduce volatility.
A big buyer can move this stock quickly.
Most of the shares are locked up by institutions and ELon
Wondering how this stock can move so much- maybe I just answered my own question - Low float high volatility. Once we hit 500 I see a 10 for 1 split to reduce volatility.
Can you imagine the buying pressure when shorts start buying to close their positions? Who really wants to take profits below 230 or 240? I just don't see many sellers once we start heading up.
That said, if you look at the trajectory of TSLA today, it is very closely following the DOW and NASDAQ. A blast-off of TSLA looks like it will depend upon a surge in the broader markets to get it started.
1) Model X tracker shows a lower delivery activity in 2016 than 2015. There are also fewer reports on the forums. I believe the sample size is enough to be significant.
2) When you look at the Model X sighting thread, most of the pictures we see are from Model X's waiting in service centers rather than being delivered. We also know that these cars are spending longer in the SeCs than usual because part of QC has been pushed from factory to the local prep guys. Again, not a great sign of actual deliveries.
3) There is comparatively little buzz on social media. There are little to no reviews. While the impact on demand is irrelevant, I believe with more buzz on model X deliveries we would've seen more interest in TSLA from casual investors and therefore upwards price pressure on the stock.
ludicrousspeed
Member
Sometimes it may seem like all the projections are already built into the stock price, for example when we recently fell 7% the day after announcing 50K+ deliveries. But that is certainly not the case.
A simple calculation of 2020 financials would yield a valuation substantially higher today. Let's assume they sell 400K vehicles at an average selling price of $55K. Also assume they sell ~$1B in Tesla Energy this year and grow those revenues at 50% as well (will probably grow faster). Then assume that Tesla has absolutely no other revenue source (extremely unlikely). That's already $27B in revenues for 2020, on the VERY conservative side, a number that is already higher than the current valuation of ~$26.5B (implying a Price/Sales ratio of less than 1). Since Tesla's margins are about 2-3x those of their average competitors, TSLA will demand a much higher price/sales ratio than 1. Another key here is that Musk thinks revenues will continue to grow at 50% through the following five years, making over $200B in sales by 2025.
Another major reason it's obvious that all the future projections aren't built into the current SP is the short interest. Naturally, as Tesla continues to grow at ridiculous rates, grow positive brand awareness, meet all of these projections, and most importantly reduce the investment risk (successful completion of GF and M3) the shorts will begin to cover and move the SP up faster than if TSLA had a normal amount of short interest. At some point, Tesla will become a mature company with less than 5% short interest (currently well over 20%) and there will be some short squeezing along the way.
There is a lot of growth built into the SP and we may hover around the 200 level as long as the macro environment stays uncertain. However, I'm going to use this opportunity to load up at these levels because we will see substantially higher valuations by 2020. At that time, there will be "crazy" five year growth projections for 2025 just like we have today for 2020. Just be patient, don't invest money you need over the next couple of years, and enjoy the ride.
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