Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

Johan, your avatar is cracking me up.

 

[sundaymorning]

Maybe it's time for some changes in trade agreements.

This is exactly what I am thinking. Companies that enter China is usually looking to make a quick buck, Tesla brings much more than that--clean air. As a shareholder I'm ok with giving the Chinese a partial split, but Tesla should get something in return. I suspect the recent visit of India's prime minister, Narendra Modi was to subliminally get Elon to think about India.. A few companies have recently been divesting out of China, take for instance Samsung, opting to build a $3 billion factory in Vietnam instead. With China massively polluting itself, Elon and Tesla does carry a lot of pull. I'm sure they'll be able to work something out. I wouldn't under estimate Elon's auera right now, especially after the massive demand for M3.

 

[theschnell]

Best guess as to Friday closing price?

Or if that's too far out, tomorrow's closing price?

 

[Johan]

Wouldn't it be great to at least get a hint as to if there have been significant reservations made anywhere else in the world apart from the US. China would be the most interesting, also EU broken down per country (I saw media coverage of a lot of activitity in Germany). If they gain traction in China with reservations that may pave the way to some type of deal. It wouldn't be the first time if Elon/Tesla blazed a trail.

 

[geneclean55]

Best guess as to Friday closing price?

Or if that's too far out, tomorrow's closing price?

Wondering how much of todays action is based around the general model 3 excitement, or the positive analyst statements/ factory speculation. Would be informative ahead of Musks tweet.

Also, I would love the major stock indices to go green sometime this week

 

[sundaymorning]

India car sales were 2.2M in 2015.
China car sales were 17M in 2015

Premium car sales as a percentage is also far lower in India.

Western Luxury cars are about ~40k units per year.

The Chinese market is huge, but with Tesla being able to sell every car they produce, it won't make a difference where they put their factory. China has refused Tesla equal treatment, I suspect bc Tesla has no weight in China. By "weight" I mean a factory that employs their citizens, (why should we give you any incentives when you offer us nothing?) but with Tesla dangling a potential factory contributing to clean air, it's imminent the Chinese will revisit the "incentives" conversation.

 

[everman]

Question for you guys: how much farther along could Freemont be than we know about regarding Model 3 production capabilities?

I think of the huge capex spend last year and wonder what percentage of the line is already prepared or close.

I ask this with the overall philosophy that Elon is treating this launch differently than every other launch. Everything bends to the one purpose, which I think could be summed up simply: everything regarding Model 3 is wrapped in success, or beating expectations.

Could it be that they are able to start building them next spring or summer?

I need your guys help to complete this preparedness checklist:
- paint shop (100%)
- body in white line
- panel stamping (100%)
- general assembly
- battery pack assembly
- motor manufacturing
- seats / leatherwork
- ___________
- ___________

Etc...

Edit for on topic: I think we see ATH by end of next week, on the beginnings of the squeeze.

 

[Stretch2727]

Wouldn't it be great to at least get a hint as to if there have been significant reservations made anywhere else in the world apart from the US. China would be the most interesting, also EU broken down per country (I saw media coverage of a lot of activitity in Germany). If they gain traction in China with reservations that may pave the way to some type of deal. It wouldn't be the first time if Elon/Tesla blazed a trail.

Model3Tracker.info

So far we only have 842 reservations listed. Less than 1% of the total. Only 1 of 842 from China. Many from the EU.

We need to get many more people to enter their reservations here so we have an idea of the geographical mix. My guess though is China will always be a low percentage represented due to the language barrier and lack of knowledge of the tracker.

I am co-admin for the site.

 

[theschnell]

Edit for on topic: I think we see ATH by end of next week, on the beginnings of the squeeze.

I highly doubt this but I hope you're right.

Edit: I misread your quote. I thought you said by end of this week. By end of next week also seems unlikely but better chance than end of this week.

 

[Johan]

Model3Tracker.info

So far we only have 842 reservations listed. Less than 1% of the total. Only 1 of 842 from China. Many from the EU.

We need to get many more people to enter their reservations here so we have an idea of the geographical mix. My guess though is China will always be a low percentage represented due to the language barrier and lack of knowledge of the tracker.

I am co-admin for the site.

I agree, it will be hard to get Chinese people to register there. @maoing and some others here on TMC, who are bilingual, have been very helpful before with reporting from Chinese forums and media, I hope to hear some news via them eventually.

BTW thanks for creating the tracker. I have registered my reservation. I was impressed by the interface, the zooming maps, etc.

 

[Electrifying]

I was born in China. Based on the traffic at MODEL 3论坛_手机汽车之家 , my guess is that total reservation of Model 3 in China has already broken 100 thousand.

 

[Fallenone]

I agree, it will be hard to get Chinese people to register there. @maoing and some others here on TMC, who are bilingual, have been very helpful before with reporting from Chinese forums and media, I hope to hear some news via them eventually.

BTW thanks for creating the tracker. I have registered my reservation. I was impressed by the interface, the zooming maps, etc.

Well the excitement in the section for Tesla on one of the largest Chinese forum for cars was quite good recently, before, during, and after the Model 3 reveal. There were lines in front of Tesla stores in China too. But major media outlets and social media in general are less than mediocre IMO.

BTW I am that lone China reservation. Will cancel either that one or my US one depending where I would be in 2018.

 

[Johan]

I was born in China. Based on the traffic at MODEL 3 大家的订单号是多少？_MODEL 3论坛_手机汽车之家, my guess is that total reservation of Model 3 in China has already broken 100 thousand.

Please keep the updates coming! From my Google translate attempt at looking at autohome.com.cn it would seem some users there are jumping to conclusions, interpreting their RN numbers as places in a queue in the 80.000s or 90.000s, while we are fairly certain these numbers aren't sequential.

 

[Fallenone]

I was born in China. Based on the traffic at MODEL 3论坛_手机汽车之家 , my guess is that total reservation of Model 3 in China has already broken 100 thousand.

I highly doubt 100k... There's no concrete evidence/survey, etc. to support this. I think it is simply because some people took their RN sequentially.

 

[Fallenone]

Model3Tracker.info

So far we only have 842 reservations listed. Less than 1% of the total. Only 1 of 842 from China. Many from the EU.

We need to get many more people to enter their reservations here so we have an idea of the geographical mix. My guess though is China will always be a low percentage represented due to the language barrier and lack of knowledge of the tracker.

I am co-admin for the site.

I'll post the tracker on a popular Chinese auto forum's Tesla section and provide some translation maybe tonight. Will see how it goes.

 

[MitchJi]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

Not totally unexpected looking at the European and InsideEVs estimate (which was off quite a bit on Model X).
These excuses are unbelievable. End of Q4: exponential MX ramp. Feb 10 th ER, no mention of supplier parts. Now, the supplier issue emerges from nowhere. I highly doubt the excuse. MX quality issues was the likely culprit.

I agree with the MX quality issues. Even if they were caused by some suppliers, still quality issues.

If you don't trust EM and TSLA management I think you should stop investing in TSLA.

In any case please stop making posts implying that EM and TSLA management are liars. I regard EM and TSLA management as friends, and I find those posts offensive.

Everyone mentions 750 Model X a week, but I would not be surprised if build rate is actually 350/week, and 750 was achieved by push in completing partially assembled Xs that were stockpiled.

Doesn't mean much long term, but I caution against over-enthusiasm.

Beyond lying you think they were intentionally trying to deceive investors?! Good luck investing with that reasoning (you'll need it ).

 

[sundaymorning]

I was born in China. Based on the traffic at MODEL 3论坛_手机汽车之家 , my guess is that total reservation of Model 3 in China has already broken 100 thousand.

Glad to have you on board, if you can help us by visiting the Tesla Chinese forums sometimes and report your findings here or the Chinese thread that would be of tremendous value.

 

[Fallenone]

If you don't trust EM and TSLA management I think you should stop investing in TSLA. In any case please stop making posts implying that EM and TSLA management are liars. I regard EM and TSLA management as friends, and I find those posts offensive.

I never said EM and TSLA managements are lairs, just pointing out the fact that the early phase MX production has quality issues. Just take a look at the MX sub-forum. This is nothing but normal for any car model in early production phase.

 

[mmd]

Wouldn't it be great to at least get a hint as to if there have been significant reservations made anywhere else in the world apart from the US. China would be the most interesting, also EU broken down per country (I saw media coverage of a lot of activitity in Germany). If they gain traction in China with reservations that may pave the way to some type of deal. It wouldn't be the first time if Elon/Tesla blazed a trail.

We saw some photos of Shanghai store on M3 reservation opening in the 'Show us your tents' thread. Nothing like USA. A handful of young people filling up forms.

Note, subsidies for electric cars are going to be phased out in the next few years, as funding is shifted to R&D.
China Will Phase Out EV Subsidies, Shift Toward Funding Tech R&D

 

[Electrifying]

Not sure if this http://seekingalpha.com/article/3962789-tesla-model-3-love-first-sight has already been mentioned.

Randy Carlson predicted the gross profits for the base, medium, and top trim Model 3 are $3018, $6151 and $15452 respectively. Highly thought-provoking I think.