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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I see today's FUD from Standpoint Research as harvesting the low-hanging fruit. Undoubtedly, the shorts realized that a bunch of new TSLA investors came onboard during the recent climb, many likely to be new Tesla Model 3 reservation holders. Standpoint's FUD message on CNBC was certainly the catalyst for the drop to 250ish, if you look at the timing. New TSLA investors haven't been through this type of FUD attack before, and many likely had fairly tight stop-loss limits set on stock. The net result is a quick drop in SP.

The bigger picture is that Tesla may seriously be looking at raising some capital to speed up the Model 3 launch, but I imagine Tesla wants a stock price above $260 before the capital raise. Thus, many auto companies and even the oil sector has something to lose from a successful Tesla capital raise, and hence a TSLA SP of $260 or above.

As for the availability of short shares, although Fidelity doesn't have any, I just checked with Etrade and they say they have "lots" of TSLA shares available to short, with an interest rate a bit less than 7%. So much for my theory that the shorts are temporarily out of business.
 
I see today's FUD from Standpoint Research as harvesting the low-hanging fruit. Undoubtedly, the shorts realized that a bunch of new TSLA investors came onboard during the recent climb, many likely to be new Tesla Model 3 reservation holders. Standpoint's FUD message on CNBC was certainly the catalyst for the drop to 250ish, if you look at the timing. New TSLA investors haven't been through this type of FUD attack before, and many likely had fairly tight stop-loss limits set on stock. The net result is a quick drop in SP.

The bigger picture is that Tesla may seriously be looking at raising some capital to speed up the Model 3 launch, but I imagine Tesla wants a stock price above $260 before the capital raise. Thus, many auto companies and even the oil sector has something to lose from a successful Tesla capital raise, and hence a TSLA SP of $260 or above.

As for the availability of short shares, although Fidelity doesn't have any, I just checked with Etrade and they say they have "lots" of TSLA shares available to short, with an interest rate a bit less than 7%. So much for my theory that the shorts are temporarily out of business.
The way you put it, I feel guiltily of adding at this level.
 
Does anyone think we'll test a new low on Monday? May have to cut my losses :eek::confused:
My wild guess Is max pain forces are holding it at $250 for today. Absence of news, it might drop on monday. $240 was a strong resistance, which would become a strong support, not so for $250. We saw it broke through $255 which was a strong support, until the guy appearance on cnbc.
Im still waiting patiently for $240 entry point. its really hard to predict at this point, any news could swing the stock price either ways.
Dont gorget macro forces as well.
 
Have a bit of dry powder left to take advantage of this dip so I used some of my lotto winnings and got 2017 calls. Looks like the sideways trend will continue and would hold out until the next ride.

Anyone care to comment on this strategy?
 
Have a bit of dry powder left to take advantage of this dip so I used some of my lotto winnings and got 2017 calls. Looks like the sideways trend will continue and would hold out until the next ride.

Anyone care to comment on this strategy?
If you think it will go sideways for a period of time, you can wait a bit to get in the calls so you don't suffer any time decay. I would put a 20% lower bid limit to take advantage of gap down or sudden dips.
 
What did Elon just do...

Is he really getting rid of supercharging for the base and making it a pay-to-use feature? If so, yikes.

IMO this is the highly preferred model. If I do not want to ever use supercharger, say it's a commuter car, why should I be forced to pay for it?

This is how you get the base price is as low as it can go.
 
I think this is the reason why stock is down > 2% in past hour or so.
What are you referring to... is there some new update on Supercharging the Model 3? Or are you simply discussing the fact that it's going to be an option on the car? (Which ought not to be news... it was an option on the base Model S for a long time.) Clue us all in, thanks...

I don't know of anything else except the CNBC hatchet job that caused the stock to fall seven bucks in short order (right at the time that CNBC thing was playing)... it appears to have found stability around $251 though.

Indeed, the sharp drop midday precisely coincided with a CNBC interview of a Tesla bear rehashing tired old FUD. As usual, stop loss limits set by weak longs were undoubtedly triggered, thus resulting in a cascade similar to that of toppling dominoes.

It's interesting that this occurred on a Friday when weekly options expire with Max Pain at $250. That's another reminder to trade the stock and not the options.

Regarding Supercharging for the Model 3:
1) As a car buyer I prefer Supercharging be an option that I can decline, since for long distances I fly rather than drive.
2) As a shareholder I welcome the added revenue from a Supercharger option.
 
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SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 rocket in about an hour and forty-five minutes, and the first stage will attempt a landing on the barge in the Atlantic. This attempt will have more fuel remaining for the landing, and so its chance of success will be higher than recent drone ship landing attempts. If SpaceX nails the landing, Elon will have a halo effect for a while and we could see a positive short-term effect on Tesla on Monday, particularly if he tweets any positive TSLA info. Watch the after-hours trading of TSLA to see if there's a bump up in the case of a successful landing.
 
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IMO this is the highly preferred model. If I do not want to ever use supercharger, say it's a commuter car, why should I be forced to pay for it?

This is how you get the base price is as low as it can go.

This is also the only way to prevent abusers and also make it profitable as a business in as of itself so other manufacturers "buy in" and invest. Imagine if Tesla Superchargers became the charging standard and you had other companies/energy companies contribute to the pot per se and phase out gas stations and went with a snack bar/juice bar + supercharger combo.

Also, to bring it around with SP. With these rumored price increases, this should help GM on the existing cars.
 
If you think it will go sideways for a period of time, you can wait a bit to get in the calls so you don't suffer any time decay. I would put a 20% lower bid limit to take advantage of gap down or sudden dips.
Thanks. Would it count if it was 20% less from today's high? Because it just dipped further down. Oh well, am really counting on the next catalysts to spark this now moistened gunpowder.
 
Thanks. Would it count if it was 20% less from today's high? Because it just dipped further down. Oh well, am really counting on the next catalysts to spark this now moistened gunpowder.
It's really hard to say at what price one should put the limit buy/sell. Really depends on your risk/greed. Option prices liquidity is not good. So in the case of gap down, you might get nice discounts and leave you more safe zones. On the other side, you may miss the chance.
 
SpaceX will launch a Falcon 9 rocket in about an hour and forty-five minutes, and the first stage will attempt a landing on the barge in the Atlantic. This attempt will have more fuel remaining for the landing, and so its chance of success will be higher than recent drone ship landing attempts. If SpaceX nails the landing, Elon will have a halo effect for a while and we could see a positive short-term effect on Tesla on Monday, particularly if he tweets any positive TSLA info. Watch the after-hours trading of TSLA to see if there's a bump up in the case of a successful landing.
Totally forgot about this, thanks for the reminder. Successful landing which has a good chance, might help on monday open.
 
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