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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes, you're right about existing storage. I meant the existing market. Or rather I'm talking about capturing the future growth in this market. Just take data centers: if that market grew x10 in size since 2011, is there any reason it won't grow at least x10 in the next 5 years??? With the growth in cloud computing and the sheer amount of data collected every second you know there is going to be some serious distributed data storage built out in the next 5 years. Yes, data storage is getting less power hungry per Tb processed (more power efficient computers, solid state drives replacing mechanical drives etc) but those gains in efficiency are going to be dwarfed by the sheer amount of growth of this segment. In absolute numbers I'm positive that the global sum of all data centers are going to consume x10 of today's energy (in GWh/year or whatever metric you pick) in 5 years.
Ah I misunderstood your "market" in your post. Yes I agree. Until a cheaper option appears, Tesla has all the market to themselves. Last time I checked (nearly a year ago after TE was announced), cheapest lithium battery for storage was about $500-600/kWh. Can't really remember where I got this number.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I certify the translation as accurate.
Another interesting note. Shengzheng will be geeting the Approval later than the other cities. Shengzheng is the silicon balley of China, this part needs a bit of a push.
dc_h
Active Member
Tesla Energy doesn't have to be competitive with on average utility. They need to attack at the margins and they can define the scope they think they need to sell 100% of their product, which may be the 10% most expensive peak markets. Examples are:
- Germany and Denmark, which have peak renewable production above 100% of their needs and high peak costs when renewables are not producing.
- Hawaii, where liquid hydrocarbons are imported at high cost and can be replaced by renewable + storage.
- Other markets where disruption costs are high like data centers and class A real estate properties.
- Markets where disruption events are high, like India and new production and wire infrastructure can't happen fast enough.
Tesla themselves. Feel free to be shocked. Bottom table on this official webpage for Powerpack.
Powerpack | Commercial and Utility Energy Storage Solutions
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Only if you make some bad assumptions. For example lobbying state PUCs is forever a defence against consumers and voters gaining access to cheaper electricity or that the grid is the only way electricity can be supplied to customers or that central generation is the only way to achieve economic production. All of this is BS.
Cheaper than grid 24/7/365 electricity can be installed at the community level immediately including an annual percentage of long term amortization costs and the financing to amortize it - and mortgage linked battery and solar will e cheaper than tbe grid on a per customer level writhin 2 years.
If you think three guys in a room in Nevada can lock out every other citizen in the State from experiencing a better standard of living due to lowered living expenses then you might want to rethink that premise.
Same principle applies to every citizen of the entire world. The US economy is held hostage by the fact that Anercan consumers refuse to pay much more than $4 for a gallon of gas while the Chinese and EU consumer is perfectly happy to pay $7 or $8. It is unreasonable to imagine that US citizens or any other will be happy to pay $0.12 cents a KWh in full knowledge that it is only a politician and a bunch of lobbyists that keeps him from paying $0.05 cents instead.
The fact that some legacy supplier is standing there like an idiot with a fully bought and paid for coal fired generator or a gas turbine trying to supply 12 cent elecricity is no barrier to competition or investment in new technology with a fresh 30+ year amortization period - it's a sitting duck for new competitors and investors to carve up.
This will also go really fast.
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I think Beijing is key. In Shanghai or Shenzhen, you can get a plate by outbidding others. But in Beijing, you can't use money to get one. Have to play the lottery system and let fate decide you wait 3 months or 3 years to get one.
Got it - thanks. This 81 - 83% efficiency that you are quoting at approximately 80% is the inclusive of of bi-directional inverter system efficiency. The 92% Powerwall efficiency is higher because it is net of the household or office inverter.
Appreciate learning something.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Small interruption coming, some personal ramblings so please disregard this post if you're in information scavenger mode.
Since last ATH I had slowly somewhat lost touch with TSLA, slowly becoming slightly complacent, observing but not thinking critically enough about TSLA, my by far biggest investment.
I would like to thank DaveT for holding the Google hangout with jesselivenomore. I would also like to thank AlMc who allegedly brokered/was the seed of the idea. That talk together with the lucky circumstance of me for once having a free weekend with time for reading, reflecting on and synthesize information.
One personal example for me is the Model X. I was exited about owning this car. I had EU reservation #5 (not signature). But having absorbed all the info and then finally seeing the car live my gut said to cancel. And I did. Now it seems to me, from a consumer perspective, that this was the right thing to do. Lots of issues with early Xs, much more than with S even though S was their first mass produced car. Today I learn has taken up living quarters at the Model X QC (I love this btw). So in retrospect I see that my gut feeling was sound. Intuition is nothing but your understanding of a large and complex body of information.
It's like when you've been married for some years, everyday life steals all of your focus, the passion cools off. Then you suddenly have a weekend with your wife, just the two of you, in a romantic city far from crying children, unfinished work and chores. And you fall in love again (hopefully, or you realize you want a divorce).
Well this weekend I took the time to go back and check my old notes, projections and not least my trading history. Guess what: it holds water. Things have played out according to Elon's plan and my projections (which were mostly aligned with Elon's). In many areas reality has even far outweighed fantasies/very optimistic projections. And the trading history holds water, sure there have been losing trades but the bottom line - the end result of every buy, sell and option trade - has beaten a buy and hold strategy by at least x2. That's saying something and gives me confidence. Me, the guy who just had started investing in index funds a few years prior, whose first ever individual stock purchase was TSLA at $27 (still holding these), who taught himself the basics of options trading through the great people here and investopedia, beats not only the NASDAQ and the SP500 with over 100% but even beaing straight TSLA buy-and-hold over a three year period... That should give me confidence - not in the way where you're being overzealous but in the way where you objectively look at your trading performance historically as the ultimate measure of your edge over the market in TSLA.
So basically this weekend I fell back in love with TSLA and I'm making plans to deploy more capital "on the next pullback".
I know my portfolio is already too TSLA heavy for any advisor. Well, I'm just going to say what my old friend Seth (Brooklyn Jew) would have: "Diversification schmersification".
Since last ATH I had slowly somewhat lost touch with TSLA, slowly becoming slightly complacent, observing but not thinking critically enough about TSLA, my by far biggest investment.
I would like to thank DaveT for holding the Google hangout with jesselivenomore. I would also like to thank AlMc who allegedly brokered/was the seed of the idea. That talk together with the lucky circumstance of me for once having a free weekend with time for reading, reflecting on and synthesize information.
One personal example for me is the Model X. I was exited about owning this car. I had EU reservation #5 (not signature). But having absorbed all the info and then finally seeing the car live my gut said to cancel. And I did. Now it seems to me, from a consumer perspective, that this was the right thing to do. Lots of issues with early Xs, much more than with S even though S was their first mass produced car. Today I learn has taken up living quarters at the Model X QC (I love this btw). So in retrospect I see that my gut feeling was sound. Intuition is nothing but your understanding of a large and complex body of information.
It's like when you've been married for some years, everyday life steals all of your focus, the passion cools off. Then you suddenly have a weekend with your wife, just the two of you, in a romantic city far from crying children, unfinished work and chores. And you fall in love again (hopefully, or you realize you want a divorce).
Well this weekend I took the time to go back and check my old notes, projections and not least my trading history. Guess what: it holds water. Things have played out according to Elon's plan and my projections (which were mostly aligned with Elon's). In many areas reality has even far outweighed fantasies/very optimistic projections. And the trading history holds water, sure there have been losing trades but the bottom line - the end result of every buy, sell and option trade - has beaten a buy and hold strategy by at least x2. That's saying something and gives me confidence. Me, the guy who just had started investing in index funds a few years prior, whose first ever individual stock purchase was TSLA at $27 (still holding these), who taught himself the basics of options trading through the great people here and investopedia, beats not only the NASDAQ and the SP500 with over 100% but even beaing straight TSLA buy-and-hold over a three year period... That should give me confidence - not in the way where you're being overzealous but in the way where you objectively look at your trading performance historically as the ultimate measure of your edge over the market in TSLA.
So basically this weekend I fell back in love with TSLA and I'm making plans to deploy more capital "on the next pullback".
I know my portfolio is already too TSLA heavy for any advisor. Well, I'm just going to say what my old friend Seth (Brooklyn Jew) would have: "Diversification schmersification".
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
San Diego Gas & Electric (SD&E) charges $0.48/kWh for peak (noon to 6pm) on their EV plan. Got to be the highest in the nation.
Note sure where you guys are getting all those $800/MWh prices for peaker plants. In the Netherlands for example, bid prices on the imbalance market (production or absorption capacity for immediate, unplanned availability to counter grid imbalances) are well below 200EUR/MWh even at the very worst imbalance situations (600MW up or down). And that's achieved with mostly conventional means. On average such large imbalances nearly never happens and prices are much lower (less than 100EUR/MWh) since they are set by an auction system.
An interesting article about the current election.
Democracy Spring and the US Voting Matrix: How Much of the Electoral Process Is Illusory?
Clearly off topic so I am posting on the macro page with a bit of explanation. (There is a wider audience here.)
Democracy Spring and the US Voting Matrix: How Much of the Electoral Process Is Illusory?
Clearly off topic so I am posting on the macro page with a bit of explanation. (There is a wider audience here.)
An interesting article about the current election.
Democracy Spring and the US Voting Matrix: How Much of the Electoral Process Is Illusory?
Truth Out is clearly a progressive publication but both Sanders and Trump supporters alike will share anger over the complexity of the process of elections. Earlier on this page or the long-run I referenced a book widely used in Government 1 classes across the nation which described our system as “a populist system of elite reconciliation.” The referenced article adumbrates the erosion of those populist aspects by law, the media, and the main political parties. What I find most offensive is the extreme decentralization of voting and the near majority of states permitting tallies by machines without audits through independent paper balloting.
Democracy Spring and the US Voting Matrix: How Much of the Electoral Process Is Illusory?
Truth Out is clearly a progressive publication but both Sanders and Trump supporters alike will share anger over the complexity of the process of elections. Earlier on this page or the long-run I referenced a book widely used in Government 1 classes across the nation which described our system as “a populist system of elite reconciliation.” The referenced article adumbrates the erosion of those populist aspects by law, the media, and the main political parties. What I find most offensive is the extreme decentralization of voting and the near majority of states permitting tallies by machines without audits through independent paper balloting.
10 Charts That Will Have You Rethinking Tesla's Model 3
Quite interesting and telling in my view. Worth reading, not long.
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Have you seen the other 9 charts?
It's getting late in Norway, can anyone calculate inclusive incentives?
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