everman
Member
Equipment calibration and maintenance will be the challenge there. It's going to be a long time until humans are really removed from manufacturing.
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Equipment calibration and maintenance will be the challenge there. It's going to be a long time until humans are really removed from manufacturing.
Quick question. I started to watch the shareholders meeting a couple hours after it started and just got kicked out, says the broadcast has ended. Does anyone know if it will be available? Trying to watch it before I read the thread and all the spoilersI'm weird like that.
I found this:
It's only partial so far.
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larmor
Active Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
You got me. I will be sent from the future to guide mankind. But then, I will know you were going to ask that.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Aaaaah this is so frustrating. Elon says 50/50 revenue going forward with cars/energy but no one thinks to ask about Tesla Energy gross margin?!? But they will ask any other fricking stupid thing they can come up with? Including Solarcity stole my bikes??? Aaaaah.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I liked the content of the shareholders' meeting, mostly because I'm a fan.
However there was scant information for investors. It's not like he said (for example) "we're out of the woods on the Model X ramp-up now, and are consistently producing about 950 per week, give or take" or "we passed 425,000 Model 3 reservations" or "we're tracking nicely towards our goal of 80,000-90,000 cars this year." None of that.
Even though Elon spoke about increased eventual production capacity at the Gigafactory, an eventual 50-50 TE/TM revenue split, and so on, I don't think there was anything firm enough for the investment community - they need something more concrete to make the stock jump up. Didn't hear anything bad either, but, I reckon it will open lower tomorrow due to the slight pressure release of anticipation of something materially cool - that didn't materalise.
However there was scant information for investors. It's not like he said (for example) "we're out of the woods on the Model X ramp-up now, and are consistently producing about 950 per week, give or take" or "we passed 425,000 Model 3 reservations" or "we're tracking nicely towards our goal of 80,000-90,000 cars this year." None of that.
Even though Elon spoke about increased eventual production capacity at the Gigafactory, an eventual 50-50 TE/TM revenue split, and so on, I don't think there was anything firm enough for the investment community - they need something more concrete to make the stock jump up. Didn't hear anything bad either, but, I reckon it will open lower tomorrow due to the slight pressure release of anticipation of something materially cool - that didn't materalise.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Not directly connected to TSLA, but to the question from one chap about how they are scaling up Superchargers to meet demand from Model 3 and increased fleet generally, well... there are twenty Superchargers under construction in North America right now. Way more than I've ever seen before.
dc_h
Active Member
Regarding Q&A: get questions ahead of time. Answer most salient at end of presentation and the rest online. Call out question owners and acknowledge them.
Regarding plant efficiency: I think he sees this as an iterative constant improvement program. Identifying the most labor intensive or slowest points on the line and attacking by changing product or production. Watching recent plant video of the new line, it was surprising how much is moved on hand carts. Hopefully the SX line will be closer to 150,000 capacity by end of 2017. If final assembly labor is 15% of cost, that could add almost 5% to margins, less added capex and increased engineering investment. Gains that would also make the 3 more competitive and profitable.
Regarding plant efficiency: I think he sees this as an iterative constant improvement program. Identifying the most labor intensive or slowest points on the line and attacking by changing product or production. Watching recent plant video of the new line, it was surprising how much is moved on hand carts. Hopefully the SX line will be closer to 150,000 capacity by end of 2017. If final assembly labor is 15% of cost, that could add almost 5% to margins, less added capex and increased engineering investment. Gains that would also make the 3 more competitive and profitable.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
"I'm probably not engaging in life choices that will maximize my life span"
Elon Musk, 2016
Actually, the answer to your question is part of the information that was provided:
- Output of GF will be approximately evenly split between TE and TA
- Revenue from TE in a long term will approx. equal to TA
Together with 3-fold increase of the GF output from the same footprint, and, therefore, with the 3-fold reduction in the GF campus costs per GWh of capacity and output, this is HUGE, but will continue to fly under a radar, until it is not. My guess that 2017 will be a watershed year.
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To me positives were that EM is serious about optimizing production and has a theory how to do it and, secondly, EM is very confident that GF battery operation will be of highest quality and that Panasonic has established a production line already at GF.
On the negative side there seemed to be a disagreement between EM and JB on the magnitude of improvements they can make to the production line. EM was saying 10x or more, JB said 100%. Perhaps they were thinking of different timeframes.
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doggusfluffy
Closed
I am expecting some headlines about the FW door software issues...and a month or so for a fix ETA.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree with your hunch but how do you infer gross margin in TE from what they've said? Automotive GM is talked about in detail in every quarterly report.
I am about to go to bed (1:40 am in my heck of the woods), with a road trip coming tomorrow, so I will leave this as a puzzler for now.
(Will post some details/napkin math later).
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I am about to go to bed (1:40 am in my heck of the woods), with a road trip coming tomorrow, so I will leave this as a puzzler for now.
I'm waiting patiently
My point is why didn't someone just ask what GM they're aiming for with TE?
mmd
Active Member
Honest question here. Do you folks believe this 10x number? I mean, Elon has been involved in Tesla production for many years. They could have done this long time ago if this is doable. Tesla has been production constrained for as far as my memory goes. 10x would have helped a lot.
Besides, volume auto manufacturing is not something new. Big car makers have been doing this for a lot longer. Wonder, if Elon and team have visited the manufacturing facilities of Toyota and other big car makers, and were comparing to theirs or Tesla's own efficiency when they said 10x improvement.
They should really collect the questions in writing and in advance and filter out the crazy. Afterwards they could publish the full list online, so people would see what was excluded, so the process could still be transparent.
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