Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SW2Fiddler]

"If it sells, it's creative."

-David Ogilvie Ogilvie On Advertising
FaWD may be a sinkhole of money, time and attention in some sense, an important functional component of the best XUV TM could aspire to make in another sense, and a marketing investment or gamble in yet another sense.

Visible from hundreds of feet away like a billboard, animated and eye-catching like a TV ad, connected to the product more directly than subtly engaging print ads.

You spot this door opening over the tops of other cars and stop whatever you're doing, if you're close enough you draw closer and see the doorway is unobstructed on all four sides. The doorway frames a sculpture, er seat that should invite you in if it was executed properly. (They have said outright they wanted this image to be artistic and appealing etc.)
The potential buyers who take the next step and get in (at a showroom or courtesy of a generous owner-advocate) get to see the "Helicopter View" even from the second row. Then THAT will be a WOW Moment the person talks about, unless they get a ride and launch!
We'll see whether this "progression of awareness" is typical or not, but if I am even close with the scenario, the three pesky design elements FaWD, Sculptural Seats, Vista Windshield will be 2014-15 marketing cost that in 2016 keeps on selling and selling and...

 

[Crowded Mind]

So deliveries up 60% from 2014, almost entirely from Model S. Pretty impressive. Would have been up 44% if they had made guidance of 35k LY.

 

[Papafox]

Here are quotes that include Model X deliveries, from the Yahoo finance article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-delivers-17-400-vehicles-170000910.html

PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwired - Jan 3, 2016) - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q4 deliveries consisted of 17,192 Model S vehicles and 208 Model X vehicles. (507 Model X vehicles were produced during Q4 with the remainder to be delivered in early Q1.)

Model X deliveries are in line with the very early stages of our Model X production ramp as we prioritize quality above all else. That ramp has been increasing exponentially, with the daily production rate in the last week of the year tracking to production of 238 Model X vehicles per week.

Edit:
If 507 Model X vehicles were produced in 2015 and 238 of them in the final week, that means that 507-238= 269 Model X vehicles produced prior to final week. With 208 of those 269 Model X vehicles already delivered, we do not see a large number of Model X vehicles awaiting repairs prior to delivery. Thus, I'm feeling rather optimistic about Tesla's ability to get the Model X vehicles to customers in a reasonable time frame once the X vehicles roll off the assembly line. Surely a few X vehicles produced in the final week were picked up at the factory in 2015, but I think the numbers are small enough to not distort the picture too much.

 

[Hogfighter]

My guess is that the market will shrug. Wasn't really a 'beat', and we don't have guidance for 2016.

Overall, good numbers, but not unexpected.

 

[phigment]

My guess is that the market will shrug. Wasn't really a 'beat', and we don't have guidance for 2016.

Overall, good numbers, but not unexpected.

My guess is starting the day low with slow downward momentum due to fire incident and 'low end' guidance. Tuesday will start to climb again once people remember all that is coming in Q1.

 

[30seconds]

Leaving the year on annualized 70,000 delivery rate with 2016 target at 75,000. A lot less heroic than the Q3 to Q4 2015 step up.

 

[Scott Ales]

While it's a solid number for long term growth, it's substantially less than I expected given the commentary from so many folks within the delivery process. With no commentary on the Norway situation things look dismal to me. I expect an immediate down trend and the likelihood I'll watch my Jan. calls evaporate to zero. Oh well, have to rely on my Mar. 16 and Jan 17 calls now. I'll try to snag a few puts in the open.

I doubt we'll a SP in the tall $200s for quite a while. Of course, I would enjoy being wrong!

 

[FredTMC]

My guess is starting the day low with slow downward momentum due to fire incident and 'low end' guidance. Tuesday will start to climb again once people remember all that is coming in Q1.

nah. This is a big win. There was a ton of negative sediment that tesla could hit their guidance at all since it was a huge increase YoY.

We we will see how market reacts. Clearly the incident in Norway may factor in somewhat.

 

[anon]

nah. This is a big win. There was a ton of negative sediment that tesla could hit their guidance at all since it was a huge increase YoY.

We we will see how market reacts. Clearly the incident in Norway may factor in somewhat.

I think also the confirmation of a few hundred/week Model X production removes some uncertainty and will be viewed favourably - it is a good indicator that Q1 deliveries are on track.

 

[mrdoubleb]

nah. This is a big win. There was a ton of negative sediment that tesla could hit their guidance at all since it was a huge increase YoY.

We we will see how market reacts. Clearly the incident in Norway may factor in somewhat.

Last time there was a fire (the garage incident) TSLA did not react much, so we'll see. I know the 2013 hysteria still stings, but the TMC community's obsession with the event may not be indicative of how much the markets will care. Unless this points to a design issue that would result in a major recall (not likely at this point as this is the first SC fire incident ever recorded), this should not even cause a blip. We'll see how mature the reaction will be.

As for the delivery targets, most headlines I saw went along the lines of "Tesla hits delivery target" which bodes well for Monday. It all depends whether 50k cars was priced in or investors had doubts and will now be relieved. In any case, the "demand is falling" story should be killed off by this impressive jump over 2014.

 

[Hogfighter]

Leaving the year on annualized 70,000 delivery rate with 2016 target at 75,000. A lot less heroic than the Q3 to Q4 2015 step up.

They were planning on delivering around 2,000 more cars than they were planning on building in Q4, so there is work yet to be done. But yes, much less heroic than any other past year.

I'm still waiting on a win to feel like a win, though.

 

[Causalien]

We are perfectly priced for this lower end of guidance scenario.

 

[InTheShadows]

I like the numbers. It gives me some reassurance that Tesla can pull it off. The MX launch really had me concerned about the company's priorities. I think they are in a much better position than they were 2-3 months ago and I feel that the share price will reflect that tomorrow.

The fleeting glimpse of the Gigafactory photos that briefly appeared are encouraging as well. There is no doubt Tesla requested the pics be removed. All good signs.

 

[Julian Cox]

We are perfectly priced for this lower end of guidance scenario.

Stock has been suppressed almost all of 2015 on the bear BS that 50K+ deliveries would never materialize. Well it did materialize - and the company is out of the woods with the imbalance of spend to sales that comes as a result of preparing for major production launches. Happy 2016. It will be.

 

[Crowded Mind]

IMO, the fire is a non-issue. I think the market has been viewing Q4 guidance as unachievable up until the run up the last couple of weeks, and still not sure meeting the lower end has been completely priced in. I'd feel a lot better if Chowdry hadn't hyped his worthless speculation. This is a massive QoQ increase which smashes record quarterly deliveries. A 50% increase over the previous high is pretty nuts. This was achieved with minimal discounting from what we can tell. This is a big de-risk to me, especially with confirmation of Model X being produced at a nice rate and initial reviews being largely positive. What short-term risks haven't been significantly reduced from this report?

 

[hockeythug]

I expect a Musk tweet tomorrow regarding the Norway fire if things head south.

 

[Lessmog]

Here are quotes that include Model X deliveries, from the Yahoo finance article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-delivers-17-400-vehicles-170000910.html

PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwired - Jan 3, 2016) - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q4 deliveries consisted of 17,192 Model S vehicles and 208 Model X vehicles. (507 Model X vehicles were produced during Q4 with the remainder to be delivered in early Q1.)

Model X deliveries are in line with the very early stages of our Model X production ramp as we prioritize quality above all else. That ramp has been increasing exponentially, with the daily production rate in the last week of the year tracking to production of 238 Model X vehicles per week.

Edit:
If 507 Model X vehicles were produced in 2015 and 238 of them in the final week, that means that 507-238= 269 Model X vehicles produced prior to final week. With 208 of those 269 Model X vehicles already delivered, we do not see a large number of Model X vehicles awaiting repairs prior to delivery. Thus, I'm feeling rather optimistic about Tesla's ability to get the Model X vehicles to customers in a reasonable time frame once the X vehicles roll off the assembly line. Surely a few X vehicles produced in the final week were picked up at the factory in 2015, but I think the numbers are small enough to not distort the picture too much.

OK, same ballpark, but it seems to me a small discrepancy lurks here. The final week of '15 was not 5 full days, so "weekly rate" of 238 does not necessarily equal 238 X were actually made. Minor nitpick, to be sure!

 

[Bgarret]

Roughly 17,000 Model S sales & deliveries in Q4 shouldn't be underestimated...although it may be tomorrow in the market. Annualized delivery of 68,000 for Model S alone? For a platform that was initially considered demand constrained at 25-30k units/year. Not too shabby.

Would the demand hold up for 4 x 17k? Don't know. But there are still material markets to open up Model S sales in 2016 in Mexico, Korea, Asia and the Middle East. TESLA could deliver 12,500 Model S/qtr (or about 3/4 of Q4 delivery) in 2016, ramp up Model X production to 1000/week by the end of Q1 and coast to 75k-80k deliveries for 2016 for another 50% YOY growth.

And dont forget....leap year - a whole day more of production and delivery in February.

This is is a win that feels like a win. Congrats to all the DS's worldwide that ramped up deliveries.

 

[FredTMC]

Roughly 17,000 Model S sales & deliveries in Q4 shouldn't be underestimated...although it may be tomorrow in the market. Annualized delivery of 68,000 for Model S alone? For a platform that was initially considered demand constrained at 25-30k units/year. Not too shabby.

Would the demand hold up for 4 x 17k? Don't know. But there are still material markets to open up Model S sales in 2016 in Mexico, Korea, Asia and the Middle East. TESLA could deliver 12,500 Model S/qtr (or about 3/4 of Q4 delivery) in 2016, ramp up Model X production to 1000/week by the end of Q1 and coast to 75k-80k deliveries for 2016 for another 50% YOY growth.

And dont forget....leap year - a whole day more of production and delivery in February.

This is is a win that feels like a win. Congrats to all the DS's worldwide that ramped up deliveries.

Completely agree. Market should react well this week.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

I'm fairly certain that the market will reach very positively to the delivery numbers. So much short interest and bear arguments revolve around Tesla not being able to reach their goals. Thus, the current stock price has < 50k deliveries priced in. We now have confirmation that they not only met thal but exceeded it by almost 600 vehicles.

I think it was much more about being within the 50-52K range as opposed to where they fell within the range. It should not be overlooked that Tesla just deliveries a whopping 51% more vehicles than their previously highest quarter.