TSLA may be down 3% in premarket but the quantity is only 25,000 shares. This is not hundreds of thousands of shares as we have seen in the past. I may buy at open price, it just might be the lowest price of the day. Thoughts anyone?
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jhm
Well-Known Member
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
If you happen to catch the low, you may get a bear market rally. That being said, you will likely wake up in a day or two sub 200.00. Accumulate slowly. This is an all out bear market and you will have lots of opportunity to accumulate imho.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Planning to do the same thing. Premarket seems to swing around 210-214, but tending more towards 210. Just like the previous two days the price on open was 4$ below that, so I expect a drop to around 208$.
Anything lower than 210 on open, I buy.
Anything lower than 210 on open, I buy.
AprilDelivery??
Member
Good reminder. I remember picking up a bunch at $198 that morning. The dip was short, only a few minutes.
It's important to note that if there is only one thing Elon has been consistent on for the entire history of Tesla, and in fact for all of his companies it is this statement: "If you want to take on an industry with large incumbents, you can't just be a lot better in some way, or a little better in a lot of ways, you need to be considerably better in every way than the competition or people won't be motivated to make the switch."
What you are suggesting just completely flies in the face of that philosophy, which is the guiding philosophy for an Elon Musk company.
The model 3 base model WILL be a fantastic car, and certainly worth buying and attractive to customers. I can say this with near certainty because no Elon Musk company has ever failed in this regard. Even the model S40 as an example. The company decided that it just wasn't compelling enough and immediately discontinued it before actual delivery. The base 35k model 3 will absolutely be a compelling vehicle and good value, it also will not sell very many units, because at Tesla you don't buy a trim, you pick and choose options. There will be a number of options that people just don't want to pass up bringing the car to 37k or 40k etc. That will also be so compelling that only a small segment of price conscious customers will ignore them and actually purchase the on it's own compelling base. For instance, if self driving package is offered for 5k like the current price, the large majority of buyers are extremely likely to option to it and take the car to 40k for want of an amazing feature.
TLDR, the base model 3 will be very compelling on it's own, but will still not sell many units. It will NOT be a car which no one wants to buy.
Scott Ales
Member
I have heard from a number of friends who invest regularly they sold most if not all their positions (non TSLA) before the end of the year. I seriously doubt they and many others will re-enter until something really significant occurs. Like it or not, we could test new lows which are market driven. Not indicative of the companies performance.
Or the car for that matter!
I'm hanging out for mid $100s.
Or the car for that matter!
I'm hanging out for mid $100s.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
She ain't a buy the dip market anymore. They "may" buy the gap down this am as a tester, but my thoughts are "this time it's different." I wouldn't buy the dip.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Shooting up from the $213.70 low.
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That doesn't make any sense. The car will have over 200 miles of range, from a smaller battery, which means it gets more miles per kWh, which means it will charge faster on a miles per hour basis.
Given the same size battery it will. But if the battery is smaller on a kwh basis it will charge slower. But it will still get more miles per kwh so it is likely to charge at about the same speed by that measure. This is assuming both the S and 3 have the same battery chemistries at the time.
Maximum Pain for tomorrow is $225.
VIX index is only at 23 (half of what it was last August). So contrary to the gloom on this thread Mr. Market doesn't see the current global meltdown in the same light as it did last August.
Thinking there will be an upward bias through end of close tomorrow.
Sold some $220 Puts hoping to capitalize on my thesis.
VIX index is only at 23 (half of what it was last August). So contrary to the gloom on this thread Mr. Market doesn't see the current global meltdown in the same light as it did last August.
Thinking there will be an upward bias through end of close tomorrow.
Sold some $220 Puts hoping to capitalize on my thesis.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I respectfully disagree.
The macro economic conditions are much better than the media is reporting. The U.S. economy is doing well. This isn't 2008 all over again (as Soros is saying).
TSLA has been in a trading range between 210-240 for the past 3 months. There's lots of support around the 210 figure. There are too many positive events upcoming between now and March to keep the price down too much.
I'm all in right now, so I hope I'm right! Best of luck to all.
To build on what Stealthology pointed out earlier, what matters to the short term is the the lag between now and when it becomes generally obvious that Tesla's Q1, Q2, Q3 2016 will most likely be FCF positive and probably non-GAAP profitable as Tesla transitions out of its 2015 of heavy development spending for Model X and into a 2016 dominated by sales of its three product lines S, X and TE (while Model 3 and Gigafactory spend will be relatively muted prior to the big push to build out M3 production capacity - with M3 reservations in-hand).
What I would suggest that this means is that we have an information advantage that would dictate a short term strategy relating to seeking an entry point prior to much improved medium term fundamentals becoming generally obvious. Personally I chose an entry of Nov 13 2015 @ $207. This I called on the basis of exactly the same thesis as I am suggesting here. My thesis did not account for macroeconomic effects. Will there be a better entry than $207 as a result of macroeconomics? Not so far, and I think probably not.
Naturally more active traders with brilliance I don't possess could have gone in at $207 sold at $240 and gone back in again @ $213. I happen to like big inflections for big reasons and I think the shorts being fundamentally wrong about the fundamentals is the big reason going forwards in the runup to the M3 unveil.
This is definitely not like 2008 but every indicator is screaming recession in the US. Atlanta Fed is estimating 0.7% GDP growth for Q4 which is very close to recession. And this was for what should be a good holiday quarter.
It's important to note that it's an unrealized loss, this whole downturn on China is pretty irrelevant and provides a buying opportunity rather than any real long term issue, especially in the us. It's not like we export a ton of things to China, and the tech stocks even less so. This is just wall street being irrational as usual.
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Yeah but why? No one who is predicting a major down market had given any reasons. Low oil doesn't matter (we couldn't even export in the us until just recently) so that just means more buying power. Unemployment filing first time numbers continue to drop, unemployment rate continues to drop, earnings reports continue to be good. Give me one good reason the market SHOULD drop. I'm serious, if there is a real reason I'd love to know it. Honestly it sounds like people may just be reading too much cnbc lately?
Let's see what the Q4 GDP looks like. 0.7% estimate is as close to recession as you get. The trend for the past year has been down as well.
Overall for the US that is of course true. However........this is the TESLA thread, after all. Lessened consumer purchasing power because of the stock market meltdown, most particularly amongst the higher-flyers, combined with the wrong direction on the USD/CNY forex, is a double whammy that Tesla does not need.
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