I have a Roomba vacuum cleaner for several years now that does just this. iRobot Roomba 770 docking itself to recharge - YouTube
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Musk is on video at the 2014 London England Tesla Store opening in 2014 stating the 4-5 year no-miracle required roadmap to 380 Wh / Kg. That's 120 Wh/Kg to go from a 260 Wh/Kg base or 46.1% increase in 3-4 years. I was being conservative on the 30% increase in energy density too ;-)
Perhaps this is a matter of semantics
Spot on correct it is a matter of semantics. If the first X launch date they announced was the 29th September 2015 then it would have been exactly on time by semantic standards. By objective (non-semantic) standards it was exactly on time for the business on the 29th September 2015. Timing could not have been any better. Suggest replaying the 2012 shareholders meeting. Two data datapoints. Unit production targets in 2013 and 2014 for MS and MX combined and the suggested launch data of the Model X. They essentially hit the combined production targets even if the only MX they actually produced was one Alpha prototype. If they had seen that they needed the X to make the target numbers then I guess they would have rushed it to market as a basic MS platform extension and the whole business would not have come nearly as far as it has come. Not needing to spend money on Model X in 2013 / 2014 and the ability to real-world validate the Model S before launching the Model X and to do all the globalization with Super Chargers and Service Centers is a huge deal thanks to a very great extent to not needing to rush the Model X because Model S was delivering the numbers called for in the 2012 business plan without it.
dc_h
Active Member
Sometimes the forum is like politics. If you are a bull, every potential mistake or delay was actually planned or beneficial. If you are a bear, anything good is lucky or transient and will lead to Tesla's downfall. Being late on the X was being late on the X. Especially the lack of clarity in Q4. Sig buyers would have liked to have more visibility into the purchase and delivery process. The model X technology advantages are yet to be determined from a consumer utility perspective, meaning will people buy the X like they have the Model S. If the X becomes a leading product in it's segment like the S has, Tesla is going to have a very solid cash flow foundation for the next 2 years. If that allows Tesla to grow to 100,000 S & X sales in 2017, that should fund Model 3 production without a return to capital markets.
Short term, evidence of increasing X deliveries and signaling about cash flow positive in Q1 are the key factors for TSLA. Secondary drivers for TSLA are reporting of deliveries of Power products from the GF. I don't think the future is rainbows and unicorns, but I don't think it is doom and gloom. Tesla will begin to see competitors in the EV and energy sectors. LG appears to be aggressive and willing to cut their margins, or take a loss, to compete in the battery sector. GM appears to have a decent car. The Bolt is not likely to take many\any Model S\X consumers, but it is a sign of rapidly evolving sectors affecting Tesla. A growing EV market is what Elon wanted, but these issues make ripples in the short term interpretation of Tesla's competitive edge and value. These changes are good signs. I think EV's will lead to a quieter, cleaner and more functional future and greater national security. Waiting for Tesla to take over the entire auto industry is not practical or reasonable, but expecting Tesla to continue to lead the change seems likely.
Short term, evidence of increasing X deliveries and signaling about cash flow positive in Q1 are the key factors for TSLA. Secondary drivers for TSLA are reporting of deliveries of Power products from the GF. I don't think the future is rainbows and unicorns, but I don't think it is doom and gloom. Tesla will begin to see competitors in the EV and energy sectors. LG appears to be aggressive and willing to cut their margins, or take a loss, to compete in the battery sector. GM appears to have a decent car. The Bolt is not likely to take many\any Model S\X consumers, but it is a sign of rapidly evolving sectors affecting Tesla. A growing EV market is what Elon wanted, but these issues make ripples in the short term interpretation of Tesla's competitive edge and value. These changes are good signs. I think EV's will lead to a quieter, cleaner and more functional future and greater national security. Waiting for Tesla to take over the entire auto industry is not practical or reasonable, but expecting Tesla to continue to lead the change seems likely.
AFAIR what he actually said was "I'm not sure if this car needed to be made". Sure proud of the achievement and all that, but from the perspective of his decisions in allocating resources of the company that might not have been the optimal way. Possible management mistake, but we'll see how it all plays out.
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Tesla is very well positioned for medium term. Also I don't see an engineering organization that can compete in this space. Nobody combines software development and manufacturing better than Tesla, nobody is even close from what I can see. Plus, even if we get to very dense, cheap batteries soon it doesn't mean market won't still reward a kick-ass premium product. All I'm pointing out is this has to be considered in the valuation models (or, in my case, valuation gut feel guess).
dc_h
Active Member
I think this is the key issue that will allow Tesla to maintain leading margins. If they maintain the engineering edge, they should be able to get iPhone margins against their Android-like low-margin competitors.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm not taking Elon's tweet too literally. Personally, I would not want to put the mileage on the car just to summon it from coast to coast. But it is fun to imagine the possibilities. For example, Tesla might never have to ship a car to a custome. Order online, the car is built in Fremont, and it drives itself from factory to home anywhere in the US. Pretty cool, but would an East customer want to pay for covered shipping anyway to avoid any damage along the way and to take delivery of a car with less than 3000 miles on it?
Regarding Superchargers, we want robotic charging even if we are not shipping the car cross country. This actually solve the problem of urban charging. Say you live in a high rise with no charging. Just have your car drive itself overnight to the nearest Supercharger as needed. A whole fleet like this can be staggered through the night to maintain available capacity for vehicles in long distance transit and to optimize the power bill. Similarly, if you lack affordable parking where you live. These cars could drive out to cheap lots and arrive in the morning when you need them. But now we are getting dangerously close to a ride sharing model, aren't we? You just want your car to pick you up when you need it and take you where you want to go. So this begs the question of what you need it to do the rest of the time. So if you really can summon a car from CA to NY, quite alot has changed about our relationship with an automobile.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah. Long term, I praise everything TSLA is doing. Kill oil. Autopilot. Insane acceleration, Falcon wing. But those belong in long term thread. Dream, hope, moat, fundamental changes.
Short term... not so much. Just pure execution. Of course, we are all being armchair CEOs. Current price reflects how bad the market think of TSLA's execution.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Logical Anton is a TSLA Bull. His name is a mashup of Logical Thought and Anton Wahlman, two perma bears, and a joke. The real Anton is up to his usual shenanigans: http://seekingalpha.com/article/380...y-bolt-stiletto-heel-versus-nike-running-shoe
jhm
Well-Known Member
Has the blog post not been linked here yet? Well here it is.
Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone | Tesla Motors
Incidentally, many traders I follow are in shock about this as if it's amazing new news. It just boggles my mind how little research many of them do on this company, and how they keep being surprised when we actually roll out features that we told the market existed already.
Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone | Tesla Motors
Incidentally, many traders I follow are in shock about this as if it's amazing new news. It just boggles my mind how little research many of them do on this company, and how they keep being surprised when we actually roll out features that we told the market existed already.
chickensevil
Active Member
Did they miss the part that over 1 year ago they said this would be a feature? I mean... did they not even watch the product announcement/unveiling? These don't seem like they do even the most basic of research into a company.
Did they miss the part that over 1 year ago they said this would be a feature? I mean... did they not even watch the product announcement/unveiling? These don't seem like they do even the most basic of research into a company.
Haven't you followed the dialog? Elon was lying about those features.
chickensevil
Active Member
Noooo! Why did you link one of these... inevitably I click it and waste my time reading his garbage posts, followed by reading the comments... sigh... there went about an hour of my life I'll never get back...
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Oh, right. Forgot about that
Scott Ales
Member
Videos like this should continue to assist in spreading the news.
Jon Favreau Drove a New Tesla - YouTube
I have a very close friend that confided to me this evening that his wife really doesn't care about cars. But she wants a Model X.
Hard to say how many current owners are having these discussions and the impact short and long term.
Jon Favreau Drove a New Tesla - YouTube
I have a very close friend that confided to me this evening that his wife really doesn't care about cars. But she wants a Model X.
Hard to say how many current owners are having these discussions and the impact short and long term.
jhm
Well-Known Member
What else has Musk been lying about?
Seriously, awhile back when Musk started saying that full autonomy was 2 years away, I found it hard to believe. My doubt was based on my daily experience using Autopilot. The more I use it, the more complexity and difficulty I perceive. It's great, but nowhere close to where it needs to be for autonomy. So these quarterly releases are really important markers along the way. I look forward to installing 7.1 on my car and getting a direct sense of how much progress has been made. In 7 more quarterly installments, Tesla should be at near perfection, a level of performance where you would trust your car to take your young child across town without a driver in the car. Pulling out of the garage is a first baby step. Seven more updates, let's see if they can pull this off.
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Man, that was quite an endorsement. You can't buy that with money, but apparently lending out a Model X for a few days does the trick. Very cool.
From the blog post: "Eventually, your Tesla will be able to drive anywhere across the country to meet you, charging itself along the way. It will synch with your calendar to know exactly when to arrive."
They really shouldn't say "your Tesla" will be able to do that, because it's not true. Nobody's Tesla (who owns one right now) will be able to do that because it'll require new sensors not available right now. They ought to say, "Eventually, Tesla cars in the future will be able to..." .
Maybe it's a small point, but things like this really urk me. Tesla ought to be better than this.
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