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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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That's what I've been wondering too. At some point I think Tesla has to start doing more to reward/protect their early adopters/customers (i.e. their largest and most effective salesforce) when it's possible. Obviously they can't do this with every feature/improvement, but with AP being such a huge, visible, and much-discussed part of Tesla's future I would hope they would be forward thinking enough to at least install the wires needed for a future AP upgrade. Then in a few months announce something like "All MX and MS produced since January 17th have AP2.0 upgrade capability."

I think they will have the ability to reward their early adopters with something. They made a 400 miles battery available for Roadster owners, so I can see something similar being offered to early adopter Model S peeps. Maybe additional cash towards trade in of a new Model S or something.
 
That's what I've been wondering too. At some point I think Tesla has to start doing more to reward/protect their early adopters/customers (i.e. their largest and most effective salesforce) when it's possible. Obviously they can't do this with every feature/improvement, but with AP being such a huge, visible, and much-discussed part of Tesla's future I would hope they would be forward thinking enough to at least install the wires needed for a future AP upgrade. Then in a few months announce something like "All MX and MS produced since January 17th have AP2.0 upgrade capability."

With Musk talking about full autonomy in two year, it is not too early for cars to be AP 2.0 upgradable, especially the Model X. Tesla will need to make this clear within a year or it could produce an Osborne effect. We certainly do not want customers to be delaying purchase now because autonomy is coming within 2 years. That would only add to the delay as people wait for the Model 3.

Naturally, they will cross this date silently and announce it after old inventory has cleared. It's just an internal change that would be hard for customers to detect. So we cannot know if Tesla has already made this chage. My personal hope is that all AP vehicles are already AP 2.0 upgradable. All will be revealed in due time.
 
There are two sides to this story and I cannot yet foresee which one will win in the short term. Gut feel, net 10 years of obstruction is excessive.

1. The existing cars with existing Autopilot hardware will be statistically safer to deliver themselves to a location than hiring a delivery driver to perform the task. Tesla will have the data to be able to prove this in a Congressional hearing and also to challenge any regulatory obstruction in a court of law, for example the Supreme Court.

2. There will be a huge amount of well funded lobbying with the aim of generating vexatious regulatory obstruction.


Statistical significant sample size takes time to accumulate if the lawmakers are not anal enough to require stats for just the summoning data from garage on owner's private property. That's why I project 10 years as optimistic. And judging from what's been happening from the last few years since 2007, regulatory entrapment by entrenched interest always wins. Cyprus, Greece, single payer health care, oil.

Maybe if we get past the current doom and gloom cycle I will be more optimistic. But I am seeing an uptic in scams and petty theft recently that suggest daily life if us peasants are getting disrupted. Worst thing is, the statr has no funding to punish these crimes.
 
I speculate that the drop in the Chinese market is related. Perhaps there are some Chinese investors who also own Tesla and need to sell TSLA to help their liquidity issues with their Chinese investments.

Yeah, indices sold off at the open and dragged us down with them. Instinct tells me that every time we have dropped close to or below 200 in the past, we have been significantly higher in a matter of weeks/months because too many buyers come out at those levels. I'm not sure this market mini-panic is done playing out, but people may get bored of it soon and start panic buying.
 
Does Tesla explicitly say that the Summon feature should only be used on private property?

Does the Summon feature work on public streets or in large parking lots where you might need to park far from the store you're going into, or might need to move your vehicle from a Toby spot for any number of reasons?

In the long term, this will eliminate any inconvenience created by finding a parking space.

Going to check out data on parking trends in major cities later today. Very curious to know how much time the average person spends finding a parking space in specific cities and trends regarding accidents in parking lots. My guess is that a significant number of accidents that occur, that happen in parking lots are due to very predictable variables, that sensors would by definition be better at detecting. Tesla should in time be able to use data from the Model S and Model X to support the claim that autonomous parking is safer than non-autonomous parking.

Some staggeringly large amount of inner-city traffic is people circling looking for parking. Any sort of non trivial (like the current feature is) automated driving/parking would be a traffic godsend. Cars can move to out of the way garages and be summoned/scheduled when needed. Garages can even be retooled to be 2-3 deep or something that would be obnoxious for human drivers but cars wouldn't mind, increasing density of existing structures.

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There are two sides to this story and I cannot yet foresee which one will win in the short term. Gut feel, net 10 years of obstruction is excessive.

1. The existing cars with existing Autopilot hardware will be statistically safer to deliver themselves to a location than hiring a delivery driver to perform the task. Tesla will have the data to be able to prove this in a Congressional hearing and also to challenge any regulatory obstruction in a court of law, for example the Supreme Court.

2. There will be a huge amount of well funded lobbying with the aim of generating vexatious regulatory obstruction.

I have said it before and I will say it again. I expect local lawmakers to go all-in on supporting autonomous driving. One of their *main* jobs is trying to figure out how to fix traffic. If you really zoom out, there isn't a solution. Adding lanes, links, bridges, HOV lanes-- no city has ever "solved" traffic. Cars fill the available capacity and jam points move around. Autonomous driving is the solution. cars can syncronize and avoid the traffic-causing break-waves, space out instead of bunching up etc. Autonomous driving converts existing infrastructure into efficient transport, like nothing else can. Lawmakers tasked with spending money on traffic will embrace this to the point that I expect it ot be *required* for highway driving by 2030 or so.

Edit: The other beautiful thing about autonomous driving from the point of view of policy makers: The cost is bourne by the driver. They just have to write the laws.
 
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