lango
Member
No, it was projected just three months ago in their Q3 CC
"Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think it's likely that we could be in that 1,600 vehicles to 1,800 vehicles range, per week range, in Q1. I mean, I'm guessing we'll probably be towards the lower-end of that range, but then maybe exceed that, the high-end of that range, towards the end of next year if things go well. I mean, there are some caveats there, depends on what macroeconomic conditions are like around the world next year. But right now, we do see that 1,600 vehicles to 1,800 vehicles per week on average as occurring in Q1."
What I am saying here is, if they guided their production to be at least 16k a week, and they only delivered less than 80k, wouldn't this be them overestimating demand? Of course, less than 80k delivered could be caused by a number of factors like a possible global economy recession that limits people's purchasing power ("some caveats"). But still, based on their latest forecast of their own business, less than 80k deliveries this year is not a win for them.
Oh and for the other stuff (powerpack/wall, M3, etc.), I replied in the other thread... Sorry for the mess up as I thought I answered it. I do think those are all positive news.
1600 a week for Q1 on average... for that to happen X needs to start doing 800 a week before mid February. I think that is unlikely. We need to see an explosion in VIN assignment and delivery updates first.
As for the total year production number. I don't think it matters that much, what will matter is per quarter throughout the year and the guidance for the next quarter. So if they reach 1800 a week in Q4 2016 and have a good guidance for 2017 then it does not matter if the first half is not that good and they miss the total number for the year. That is the good side with short sightedness . In the end we will be fine if X gets moving. The problem in Q1 will be a thing in the past and won't be a significant liability even if it means missed full year forecast. Now how this effects the cash balance is another matter.
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