+ 1, no more Julian and other whole bunch of cheerleaders. I should had put them in ignore list long time back, instead of checking their "stupid" noise for amusement. Even I fought hard with those cheerleaders hard in TMC, but I got more or less influenced by their optimism and adjust my pessimism. I paid the cost and lost big in 2016.
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The huge volume in the past few days with almost no stops suggests that institutions are dumping Tesla. They are generally better informed than TMC where any negatives are spun around to show only positive impacts.
jesselivenomore
Member
Like I mentioned before, after we broke 180 there was a vacuum all the way down to 150-120 created by stops going off and weak/moderate longs selling. You can clearly see the acceleration the day after we broke 180. Once that resolves itself we should get a snap back rally, perhaps to 170s.
That's all technical. What you are looking for is where will we be in 12 months+. That is dependent mostly on the macro environment. I posted a few weeks ago on here that I shorted all the major indices. Right now price action is starting to confirm the beginning of a bear market. People are taking comfort in NFLX, FB, AMZN etc crashing as well, meaning the issue is not Tesla specific. This is a major false sense of security. Because whatever Tesla specific issues that arise, I am confident that Tesla can resolve and TSLA can quickly recover. However, in a market-wide revaluation in a bear market, there is nothing Tesla or Elon Musk can do to change that. TSLA can go from 5x sales to 2x sales without anything changing within the company and it would still be fairly valued. (AAPL was consistently valued at 2-3x sales when it was growing at 50% after the launch of the iphone) It is all dependent on investor sentiment on what valuation is given. And with leading stocks all coming apart, the market is signalling the beginning of a bear market.
So to answer your question, what you really need to figure out is how long a potential bear market will last. Mild bear markets like 1990, 1987 recover within a year. You should be ok in this scenario. Major ones like 2000, 2008, 1970s last for years. 2008 took 5 1/2 years to fully recover. When dealing with options instead of stocks, that could potentially render your holdings worthless. Again, like I've stated numerous times here, I do not believe this will be a repeat of major bear markets like 2000/2008. However, if I am reading you correctly, you are dealing with money you cannot lose? In that case, you need to evaluate every scenario carefully, even the worst case that is unlikely to happen. I am a trader foremost, not an economist(they are wrong 50% of the time anyways), so I can not answer this for you. Off the top of my head I would say there is an 80% likelihood that this is a run of the mil mild bear market given its underlying issues. Maybe you can do your DD and put your own probability on it. Then the question is, are you willing to(afford to) bet your money on that probability not hitting.
It can't be simply attribute to macro and manipulation now, TSLA must have fundamental issues retail investors don't know.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Totally agree.
What are your short term moves?
Selling stock?
Getting rid of calls?
Puts as protection?
Do you think EM would have tweeted in case he had good news?
I'll go with BMW 26% decline being all we can attribute to the macro environment and attribute 10% to the Model X delay and apparent hinge issue. I don't consider 10% indicative of sellers who "know" something selling.
What gives You this idea?
And why did the cheerleaders vanish?
Because this company didn´t get a grip about those doors (or simply neglected it), and I don´t care hinges, sensors, pumps, seals etc...
for the last 6 (!) if I generously add 2 years back for development off the beta and presentation type phase (2012).
Me being long- I never thought to post those statements- but todays "medium", Dan Galves, who might be one of the more knowledgeable insiders
finally provided 20/20.
dc_h
Active Member
The stock may rise after ER or fall, I don't know. But readers should take EV "enthusiast" input with a grain of salt. He has gone all in shorting the stock and is trying to talk it down. He is not above outright BS, although will back off when called on it, and say he meant something else. We've had plenty of perma-bulls do the same when they had calls out there, I suppose.
I am not stating an opinion, EV-e has stated he has shorted the stock and is counting his money. Congrats to him, but note that he is not an objective commentator.
I am not stating an opinion, EV-e has stated he has shorted the stock and is counting his money. Congrats to him, but note that he is not an objective commentator.
I've always appreciated your skepticism, your cautious approach, but there I think you're overdoing it.
It's indeed -10%, but look at the whole market today, look at the whole market the las few weeks. Not all is macro related, but we are in pre-ER, the company must remain silent and has to live with all the rumors and all the speculation. Yes there is cause for concern, but there is enough turmoil and fear and we shouldn't add this new layer: institutions know more and are jumping from the ship. Genuine question: if it was the case, the volume would be much bigger, no?
jesselivenomore
Member
I don't know how many times I have read: "Buy low, sell high" in the past few days/weeks. If only trading or investing were so easy.
Something to think about:
Is 200 low or high? 2 weeks ago it was low, now it is high.
In this chart of the SPX, are we low or high?
How about now?
It is never as simple as buy "low" sell "high" when the definition of low and high depends on your perspective.
Something to think about:
Is 200 low or high? 2 weeks ago it was low, now it is high.
In this chart of the SPX, are we low or high?
How about now?
It is never as simple as buy "low" sell "high" when the definition of low and high depends on your perspective.
Every fundamental and technical indicator. MACD, RSI, Twitter, StockTwits sentiment, comments on TMC. I could go on, but you clearly have no intention of listening to my opinion.
It's amazing how common sense derails a lot of the arguments against Tesla's recent downturn. In the same way TSLA had spikes of 10%+ in months and years before, a move like the past week's isn't entirely out of the ordinary.
Things are never as good as they appear, and they are also not as bad as they appear (I'm sure this has been said a billion times on this board.) If institutions were truly leaving the stock, the price action would be SIGNIFICANTLY different from any other tickers that would resemble Tesla (auto or tech, your pick.)
Wednesday's ER will shed a lot of light on the recent arguments being thrown around. I'm still in the camp that most investors (especially the bears) are still completely ignorant to the fact that Tesla Energy and Model X/S continued demand is going to fundamentally change how people view this company - from a growth stock, to a cash generating beast.
Elon Musk elaborates on the Tesla Model X prototype 2012 - YouTube
basically nothing is true of this video.Listen closely.
basically nothing is true of this video.Listen closely.
chickensevil
Active Member
Especially since most everyone I have heard post about being long time short TSLA they are looking for sub 50$ prices. Which means they are likely to continue to pile on here, as opposed to selling off like they probably should.
It should be noted that what we have going on here is simply just the inverse of what happens as we shoot way up... only maybe less so because not everyone can actually short shares. As the price goes up, people keep buying, thinking it will go up forever... until it doesn't. Then someone buys in at 290 and is sad because the price nose dives and they are deep in the red.
Why isn't there talk about the exact same confirmation bias / echo chamber effect happening here (which, yes, there were people who posted caution as we neared tops, granted I suppose those were largely ignored as those talking about bottoms are getting ignored now). Just the other day, someone was suggesting that shorts are buyers here. I am not so certain. See my previous paragraph. Sure, recent shorts may be dumping out (as they are likely the smarter shorts). But those who have shorted this stock since forever ago, and has kept the number of shares shorted over 20M for the past 3+ years. You really think they are likely to cover now? Oh no, they are likely continuing to add to their position because they are about to be super rich for calling the end of TSLA and a return back to "more sane" levels of 30$.
They are very likely piling on more than ever before and new shorts are joining in because they don't want to miss the short of the century! Just the same as buyers kept piling on as we got to the top. Where is the bottom? I don't know. But the question is what has fundamentally changed between today and 1 month ago and 6 months ago?
Nothing really. In August we already knew at that point that X deliveries weren't likely to happen in volume until Q1. We knew what their spending agenda was. We knew they were having issues with the Product (and had been having issues with the product for some time). They reiterated the 50k number (which was hit, granted the lower bound, but that Q4 growth... wow...).
The question to ask yourself is do you think they can hit positive EPS and/or cash flows in Q1 of this year (heck I will even take Q2 at this point)? If yes, then this is a great place to buy.
Do you think that they will be able to ramp up Tesla Energy and get those margins to 15%? If so then this is a great place to buy.
Do you think that they are on-track ahead of schedule with the gigafactory in order to hit targets for Model 3 production?
Do you think that they are on-track for end of 2017 Model 3 release?
Can they sell as many Model X as they want (once they sort the production issues)?
I could go on... all of these are fundamental issues with the company that have been discussed ad-infinitum for at least 2-ish years now. Nothing has really changed... And certainly nothing has changed since January, and if anything we have evidence of deliveries happening at an OK rate (contrary to negative opinions here).
Someone else said it best. People with money are using the macro negative situations combined with the same scare tactics that have been used forever on TSLA to drive the price down. Will it hold up? I don't know. Where will it stop? Your guess is as good as mine... But it isn't likely to stop until the ER, so if you were looking to buy back in, I strongly recommend prudence till them. If you are looking to sell? Then I would ask what has changed? If you were a day trader, you should have sold long... long ago... If you haven't sold now, another 20-30$ isn't really going to "save you" any money loss and you might miss a positive ER that now you just threw away all your shares. My 2 cents, for whatever that is worth, is to wait until after the ER before you make any major decisions.
If you are a trader, I would be shorting up until the ER (might as well, right?), and then straddle it through. Because this negative sentiment isn't going away until at least 2 days from now.
jhm
Well-Known Member
In the past year or so, Tesla's stock price usually falls after positive news. With that in mind, there is little reason to buy before ER. Ignore the rumor, buy the news at a discount.
So I know it was posted here but let us look at Dan Galve's note again
Did we discuss this bolded comment? To me that is very reassuring.
Did we discuss this bolded comment? To me that is very reassuring.
From Barron's, linked in the YahooFinance quote:
"We also note that some of our peers have suggested earnings from energy storage business growth may push into 2017 and beyond, but to this point our conversations with management can neither confirm nor deny those claims."
This is what I'm concerned about. The delay sets up dueling cash flow thirsts for Capex (giga & M3). If TSLA is about to have a big miss, I hope it's a smart one. Better to pull back, like Apple, and focus on one cash drain at a time, so they don't over-extend. It might suck for customers, but managing cash and keeping access to the capital markets is a higher priority.
"We also note that some of our peers have suggested earnings from energy storage business growth may push into 2017 and beyond, but to this point our conversations with management can neither confirm nor deny those claims."
This is what I'm concerned about. The delay sets up dueling cash flow thirsts for Capex (giga & M3). If TSLA is about to have a big miss, I hope it's a smart one. Better to pull back, like Apple, and focus on one cash drain at a time, so they don't over-extend. It might suck for customers, but managing cash and keeping access to the capital markets is a higher priority.
I'm pretty close to my limit of what I can buy, but I'm betting on us not going under 120. Risk of margin call be damned - bought more at 146.5. Tesla was cheap at 200, now it's just ridiculous. I cancelled my Model X and I'm hoping I get the opportunity to put the 5k USD x3 into TSLA at this level. (Though probably not.)
I don't see much reason for concern when it comes to any issues with the falconwing doors. Even assuming Tesla needs to spend 100 million on it, that justified the drop from ~240 to ~239 market cap-wise.
I don't see much reason for concern when it comes to any issues with the falconwing doors. Even assuming Tesla needs to spend 100 million on it, that justified the drop from ~240 to ~239 market cap-wise.
cash flow, cash flow, cash flow. that's the big question. what wasn't appreciated about AMZN all those years when they were not "making money" was that they were cash flow positive and basically reinvesting 100% of any profit for growth. the question for TSLA is 1.) if they can get there and 2.) when w/ respect to a capital raise. X + S is a growth business for 2016 even with broader recession, but can they weather the macro uncertainties regarding capital raises.
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