Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tray loader]

So I know it was posted here but let us look at Dan Galve's note again



Did we discuss this bolded comment? To me that is very reassuring.

Nope.Still waiting on "parts".Could mean anything.Product not ready yet.Everything hand built up to this moment.
Door was status quo being refined in 2012.It´s just not possible to NOT figure out this technique in 4-6 years.
Dan Galves is a medium, not a critical counterpart like (at least this time) Morgan Stanley.
if You take the time to listen to the older records and earnings calls he is the "Gene Munster" of TSLA.

 

[juliusa]

I cancelled my Model X and I'm hoping I get the opportunity to put the 5k USD x3 into TSLA at this level. (Though probably not.)

Let's hope not all X reservation holders do that.

 

[SBenson]

From Barron's, linked in the YahooFinance quote:
"We also note that some of our peers have suggested earnings from energy storage business growth may push into 2017 and beyond, but to this point our conversations with management can neither confirm nor deny those claims."

This is what I'm concerned about. The delay sets up dueling cash flow thirsts for Capex (giga & M3). If TSLA is about to have a big miss, I hope it's a smart one. Better to pull back, like Apple, and focus on one cash drain at a time, so they don't over-extend. It might suck for customers, but managing cash and keeping access to the capital markets is a higher priority.

Ok, this is another bad news which isn't discussed. So now even TE is in a set-back mode?

 

[AprilDelivery??]

Buy FEB 12' 16 Puts 124 at 3.85 TSLA? There's short sell restrictions, puts are the only way.

 

[SBenson]

In the past year or so, Tesla's stock price usually falls after positive news. With that in mind, there is little reason to buy before ER. Ignore the rumor, buy the news at a discount.

With the sentiment around, even if Elon were to merely sneeze on the call, the stock will drop another 25%. OMG maybe he has some sort of deadly virus, what happens to the company after him! oh, the horror!!

In any case I agree, the sentiment is too sour for a quick reversal, that too over ER.

 

[jhm]

The phrase, "can neither confirm nor deny," simply means Tesla cannot communicate on the issue at the present moment. This close to earnings, we should expect this to be the case. How a reader reacts to such a statement reflects more on the reader's fears or hopes than on Tesla's actual situation.

 

[SBenson]

The question is why are the "peers" (as in fellow analysts) saying that?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Like I mentioned before, after we broke 180 there was a vacuum all the way down to 150-120 created by stops going off and weak/moderate longs selling. You can clearly see the acceleration the day after we broke 180. Once that resolves itself we should get a snap back rally, perhaps to 170s.

That's all technical. What you are looking for is where will we be in 12 months+. That is dependent mostly on the macro environment. I posted a few weeks ago on here that I shorted all the major indices. Right now price action is starting to confirm the beginning of a bear market. People are taking comfort in NFLX, FB, AMZN etc crashing as well, meaning the issue is not Tesla specific. This is a major false sense of security. Because whatever Tesla specific issues that arise, I am confident that Tesla can resolve and TSLA can quickly recover. However, in a market-wide revaluation in a bear market, there is nothing Tesla or Elon Musk can do to change that. TSLA can go from 5x sales to 2x sales without anything changing within the company and it would still be fairly valued. (AAPL was consistently valued at 2-3x sales when it was growing at 50% after the launch of the iphone) It is all dependent on investor sentiment on what valuation is given. And with leading stocks all coming apart, the market is signalling the beginning of a bear market.

So to answer your question, what you really need to figure out is how long a potential bear market will last. Mild bear markets like 1990, 1987 recover within a year. You should be ok in this scenario. Major ones like 2000, 2008, 1970s last for years. 2008 took 5 1/2 years to fully recover. When dealing with options instead of stocks, that could potentially render your holdings worthless. Again, like I've stated numerous times here, I do not believe this will be a repeat of major bear markets like 2000/2008. However, if I am reading you correctly, you are dealing with money you cannot lose? In that case, you need to evaluate every scenario carefully, even the worst case that is unlikely to happen. I am a trader foremost, not an economist(they are wrong 50% of the time anyways), so I can not answer this for you. Off the top of my head I would say there is an 80% likelihood that this is a run of the mil mild bear market given its underlying issues. Maybe you can do your DD and put your own probability on it. Then the question is, are you willing to(afford to) bet your money on that probability not hitting.

Thanks Jesse, I truly appreciate your somber tone, and way of thinking that's different than mine. I see fundamental strengths, but want to bet mid-term rather than long term which is a bit of a trouble

I put some serious money to work today (mostly around $153, and some around $146), with long term calls, and selling uncovered puts.
I shell be close to time neutral, but if TSLA SP drops, I'll feel it for sure. My pain tolerance: 10% loss is not a problem, and up to 30% is acceptable. I shouldn't hit -30% until $120 or lower, but also, if we slide to $120, I'm likely to raise one more money tranche and deploy similarly; making my average 0% return around $135.

I keep thinking that Tesla and Elon are active participants, and that they can defend stock if they wanted, to some point even in the bear market. Elon said once stock is overvalued - what if he said stock is dirty cheap? Strategic partnerships with companies that have money? X-model reviews, 3 model unveil, 3 Model reservations.Tesla has achieved so much already that even in the bear market I can't see it under $120.

 

[jhm]

With the sentiment around, even if Elon were to merely sneeze on the call, the stock will drop another 25%. OMG maybe he has some sort of deadly virus, what happens to the company after him! oh, the horror!!

In any case I agree, the sentiment is too sour for a quick reversal, that too over ER.

OMG, Musk has Zika virus?!

Just kidding, but you can't exactly rule it out, right?

 

[dreamingof3]

My post from a few days ago outlined that the Tesla shorts are a different breed. These guys are still angry from the spike to 290. One merely needs to comb through the garbage on yahoo message boards that has somehow penetrated this current board. I agree with chickensevil on this-these guys aren't covering or we would be seeing some price equilibrium at the very least.

 

[chickensevil]

From Barron's, linked in the YahooFinance quote:
"We also note that some of our peers have suggested earnings from energy storage business growth may push into 2017 and beyond, but to this point our conversations with management can neither confirm nor deny those claims."

This is what I'm concerned about. The delay sets up dueling cash flow thirsts for Capex (giga & M3). If TSLA is about to have a big miss, I hope it's a smart one. Better to pull back, like Apple, and focus on one cash drain at a time, so they don't over-extend. It might suck for customers, but managing cash and keeping access to the capital markets is a higher priority.

Everything I know about the gigafactory and li-ion batteries, especially those Tesla intends to make, is that this funding source is the same thing. They needed the gigafactory for the M3, the added sizing to it and increasing their focus on Tesla Energy (than the minor side project they were doing 2 years ago) is just because they see business there. But as of right now, the Gigafactory is nowhere near large enough to eat into their intended M3 market size. They are mostly filling in their current production so the cells don't just go to waste. Making Tesla Energy products today derisks the Gigafactory in 2017 with the M3. Why? because they will have had a solid 2 years of making their own cells, in their own building before every putting a single cell into a car. This way, if they run into any production issues, or design flaws, you are only blowing up 8-10kWh of cells, instead of 50-100kWh of cells per pack.

Anyway, it's a non-issue, which is all I was getting at.

 

[elliott82]

OMG, Musk has Zika virus?!

Just kidding, but you can't exactly rule it out, right?

Well he is working in Brazil, so...

 

[chickensevil]

OMG, Musk has Zika virus?!

Just kidding, but you can't exactly rule it out, right?

Oh yeah, it was while he was down in Brazil filling in his other full time job of being a police officer.

- - - Updated - - -

Well he is working in Brazil, so...

Beat me to it haha!

 

[Yggdrasill]

Let's hope not all X reservation holders do that.

I was very much on the fence anyway. Lack of folding rear seats was very disappointing, also the currency exchange rate means the Model X will be at least 25% more expensive than I thought at the time of placing the reservation.

Better to invest the money, and then when a Model S with tow hitch, a Model X with folding 2nd row seats or a convincing Model 3/Y becomes available, then I'll buy a car with the gains. (Hopefully.)

 

[larmor]

The news, which was reported by internet publication Elektrek, also claimed that Tesla's sales escalated 271% in 2015 as compared to 2014.
>>>Related articles:
Tesla Motors Inc Strikes Accord with Skellefteå Kraft to Provide Supercharging Network in Sweden | BidnessEtc | Automobiles | By Ghous Zaman

from Android Stocks App
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=org.dayup.stocks

 

[SBenson]

I have an update on Sig #42x! Was finally contacted by Tesla in Denver. It is still in QC, expected delivery is "late February".

Not sure what to make of this. Sig #42x for Colorado late Feb doesn't sound great. Anyone else have a view?

 

[hockeythug]

Not sure what to make of this. Sig #42x for Colorado late Feb doesn't sound great. Anyone else have a view?

As they are currently grouping production by features,color, etc I wouldn't look into the reservation number that much.

 

[Matias]

Thanks Jesse, I truly appreciate your somber tone, and way of thinking that's different than mine. I see fundamental strengths, but want to bet mid-term rather than long term which is a bit of a trouble

I put some serious money to work today (mostly around $153, and some around $146), with long term calls, and selling uncovered puts.
I shell be close to time neutral, but if TSLA SP drops, I'll feel it for sure. My pain tolerance: 10% loss is not a problem, and up to 30% is acceptable. I shouldn't hit -30% until $120 or lower, but also, if we slide to $120, I'm likely to raise one more money tranche and deploy similarly; making my average 0% return around $135.

I keep thinking that Tesla and Elon are active participants, and that they can defend stock if they wanted, to some point even in the bear market. Elon said once stock is overvalued - what if he said stock is dirty cheap? Strategic partnerships with companies that have money? X-model reviews, 3 model unveil, 3 Model reservations.Tesla has achieved so much already that even in the bear market I can't see it under $120.

Yesterday you said that this is the money that you can't afford to lose. Now you're planning to borrow more money to buy more if price drops more?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yesterday you said that this is the money that you can't afford to lose. Now you're planning to borrow more money to buy more if price drops more?

There is nothing incosistent in my statements. Both times I've said that 10% to 30% loss is acceptable. I'm not sure if I need to spell that I can't afford to lose it ALL.

 

[dreamingof3]

Naz bounced, dow bounced, TSLA??? crickets