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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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This issue was discussed here when he exercised a big lot 2 weeks ago. At that time, brian(something) mentioned 7.6m shares to be exercised before end of Dec 2016. Now, looks like there are more options(!) and the timeline is just 18 days :(

Perhaps Elon can take short term loans against previously exercised options (shares) to cover the taxes, and then slowly sell some shares over this year.

Not sure if anyone covered this already, but just in case - the beneficial ownership table reports all vested options and options scheduled to vest in the next 60 days. The options reported do not expire in 60 days, it's just a lump sum number representing all previously vested options that have not yet been exercised (regardless of expiration date) plus all options scheduled to vest within 60 days of the filing. No ticking time bomb there. Source - me. I calculate these tables on a regular basis for clients.

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I'm confused about all the talk about EM and JB paying taxes on their options. It is my understanding that there is no taxable event when exercised if these are incentive options, ISO's which is my assumption. Also selling shares after the exercise makes a huge difference tax wise if the shares are not held 1 year. So reading these recent exercises as some important bullish signal is hard to see. More likely just exercised because they are now fully vested and would expire .

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/07/esoabout.asp

No, incentive options are quite rare and limited to 100k value being granted per year. These are nonqualified options and are taxable at exercise.

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No, with all due respect that is for non qualified options, EM and JB and all key employees are ISO's , surely incentive based. Explanation is further down that page and the tax consequences are very different.

No, you are 100% wrong. These are nonqualified options and are taxable at exercise.
 
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We did not get real good steak yesterday but great sizzle....sizzle might mean a real nice steak mid to late year....but it is still sizzle.

2015 was definitely a mixed bag. Model S production picked up nicely, and the expansion of the Dual Motor lineup was a good upgrade to the Model S line in general. Autopilot was late but it did arrive. Delays in Model X were definitely the most absurd and irritating item for investors, but at least the company seems to be getting past these issues.

I think there's potential for more "steak" than sizzle in 2016, as Model X should provide a boost to the company's financials. I am thinking back to 2012, and the frustrating ramp of Model S. 2012 had the "sizzle" of the Model S launch and the first Superchargers. It wasn't until 2013 that the steak arrived.


Regarding the idea that Tesla has to overstate its guidance to keep the stock price from tumbling, this idea plays into the Bear thesis that Tesla is really all about talk and not about performance.

When young bear scouts go to summer camp to learn to become uber-bears and TSLA short sellers, the first merit badge they often seek is the "Elon lies" badge. To earn this badge, a young bear scout needs to understand that Tesla gets more and more carried away with each guidance until it becomes apparent that guidance is pure nonsense, and the whole Tesla empire then comes tumbling down. After all, there's only a small sliver of the car market that all EVs must fight over, and Model X is unbuildable. A true industry visionary such as Bob Lutz knows that Model X is unbuildable and is willing to let the cat out of the bag, but industry newcomers such as Elon Musk and J.B. Strauble are clueless about such matters.

There's probably a lot of psychology at play here. My 2 basic observations about Tesla and Elon are that (1) They have a history of promising big, and (2) They do not meet their deadlines, but eventually accomplish their goals.

The public markets are extremely impatient, which probably reflects society generally in the Internet age. "INTERNET!!! FAST MONEY NOW!!!" has become an expectation in an era where web services can be quickly developed and deployed, and companies like Apple ship tens of millions of newly designed or refreshed iPhones every September. Something as systemically complex as an automobile just cannot be designed, refined, and put into mass production as quickly as an Internet service or mobile phone.

My sense is that many human participants in the markets simply look at production numbers and missed deadlines, and write off Tesla for not meeting those goals. They either leave for the next momentum stock or "fast money NOW" company shares, or join the bear/short camp. They don't get clobbered until Tesla eventually delivers at some later date. Admittedly, I have been one of Tesla's harshest critics where it comes to the Model X rollout, mostly because of the string of missed launch dates and the slow production ramp. I have to remind myself that this stuff is difficult to do. I'm sure this is why Elon does not like the fact that Tesla and SolarCity had to go public, because they are under constant pressure for "results NOW! INTERNET!".
 
Regarding the idea that Tesla has to overstate its guidance to keep the stock price from tumbling, this idea plays into the Bear thesis that Tesla is really all about talk and not about performance.

When young bear scouts go to summer camp to learn to become uber-bears and TSLA short sellers, the first merit badge they often seek is the "Elon lies" badge. To earn this badge, a young bear scout needs to understand that Tesla gets more and more carried away with each guidance until it becomes apparent that guidance is pure nonsense, and the whole Tesla empire then comes tumbling down. After all, there's only a small sliver of the car market that all EVs must fight over, and Model X is unbuildable. A true industry visionary such as Bob Lutz knows that Model X is unbuildable and is willing to let the cat out of the bag, but industry newcomers such as Elon Musk and JB Straubel are clueless about such matters.

And our poor friend Demetri! Can you imagine his wife's mood when she goes to the garage one day soon and finds out that shiny signature-red Model X is nothing but smoke and mirrors? Man, I wouldn't want to be in his shoes when that happens!

Haha, agree. I have a 60 with 74k miles now no autopilot/sensors love to drive it everyday. The wife forgot to turn off her Subaru after driving the X for one day! Once you drive one your hooked. There are millions that will want an m3.
Still hoping we get 100k plus reservations at least and maybe 200-500k in April. I'm looking for a move back to $200+ once X ramp is apparent, reviews come in and reservations are taken for the m3.
 
No, with all due respect that is for non qualified options, EM and JB and all key employees are ISO's , surely incentive based. Explanation is further down that page and the tax consequences are very different.

People often think that because stock options provide an incentive to work, that they are ISO (Incentive Stock Options). However in Sillycon Valley this is almost never the case. The options we are talking about are NQSO (non-qualified stock options). The tax treatment people have been talking about is correct.
 
Hey guys,

Besides TMC, what are some other sources you use for Tesla related discussion/information?

Reddit used to have a very active sub. Now you cannot see it unless you sign up. It was weird one day when I commented there and people ask me if I am Causalien from TMC. These are our future model 3 buyers.

Reddit investing sub has an active hate on with TSLA

Hacker news sometimes have long discussions whenever TSLA makes the news. I'd say half half against/for TSLA.
 
For sales this size, where you wouldn't reasonably expect to have offsetting losses during the rest of the year, the estimated tax is typically due a few weeks after the end of the quarter. It will/ can be adjusted if the shares are sold by the end of the year. Otherwise there is a penalty for not paying the estimated tax.

Also wrong. The tax must be paid at the time of exercise; the brokerage has to remit it. The numbers are so large that the IRS doesn't even give you the chance to wait a while.

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[*]Even at the favorable price, he still had to come up with almost $300K to exercise these options. There is no reason for him to do it at any time except the last day before these options are set to expire - why put up cash if these options belong to him anyway? The only reason for him to exercise these options way before the expiration is to send strong bullish signal to the shareholders - that he is confident in the future of the company and is willing to put cold hard cash to back up his belief.
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Not the only reason (my bolding above). If you're absolutely certain that the stock price will go up significantly, it is worth doing this so that you can hold the stock for the necessary time to push them into long-term capital gains on the difference between the cost basis and what they will be worth when you eventually sell them. While I agree that we receive a very bullish signal from these actions, I disagree that that is the reason they are doing it.
 
Also wrong. The tax must be paid at the time of exercise; the brokerage has to remit it. The numbers are so large that the IRS doesn't even give you the chance to wait a while.

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Not the only reason (my bolding above). If you're absolutely certain that the stock price will go up significantly, it is worth doing this so that you can hold the stock for the necessary time to push them into long-term capital gains on the difference between the cost basis and what they will be worth when you eventually sell them. While I agree that we receive a very bullish signal from these actions, I disagree that that is the reason they are doing it.

It might just be caution, since large amount of money transfers tends to cause hiccups and any hiccups take 1~2 weeks. I expect a continuous stream of exercise happening until end of Feb.

We are very near March now, which by history, marks the turning point of the stock. I'd get my dry powders ready as well.
 
It might just be caution, since large amount of money transfers tends to cause hiccups and any hiccups take 1~2 weeks. I expect a continuous stream of exercise happening until end of Feb.

We are very near March now, which by history, marks the turning point of the stock. I'd get my dry powders ready as well.

I've long appreciated your posts. For the first time I accessed your investing site. Nice job too. Wish I had powder that is dry. My average cost is $36, would have been 29.9 if I hadn't tried to arbitrage (over time). Lost seven shares when I bought back at $252!
 
Not sure if anyone covered this already, but just in case - the beneficial ownership table reports all vested options and options scheduled to vest in the next 60 days. The options reported do not expire in 60 days, it's just a lump sum number representing all previously vested options that have not yet been exercised (regardless of expiration date) plus all options scheduled to vest within 60 days of the filing. No ticking time bomb there. Source - me. I calculate these tables on a regular basis for clients.

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No, incentive options are quite rare and limited to 100k value being granted per year. These are nonqualified options and are taxable at vesting.


No, you are 100% wrong. These are nonqualified options and are taxable at vesting.

non-qualified stock options result in additional taxable income to the recipient at the time that they are exercised not vested, source one of many:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-qualified_stock_option


Well sure looks like more than 100K for JB in Incentive options according to his filing, maybe you should let him know it's in error so he doesn't get a tax penalty :smile:

http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1494727-16-24&CIK=1318605
 
Not sure if anyone covered this already, but just in case - the beneficial ownership table reports all vested options and options scheduled to vest in the next 60 days. The options reported do not expire in 60 days, it's just a lump sum number representing all previously vested options that have not yet been exercised (regardless of expiration date) plus all options scheduled to vest within 60 days of the filing. No ticking time bomb there.

6.7 million must be exercised before 12//3/16--Elon has already exercised about 1.2 million since 1/1/16. The other 2.1 million expire on 8/13/2022.

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[*]I am watching these filing very closely and for the past couple years do not remember any instances when JB exercised and DID NOT sell the shares.
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JB has both ISOs and NQSOs. A summary of his recent form 4 transactions are at http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1494727.htm (last 6 months are behind a pay wall.) His consistent practice appears to be for NQSO --simultaneous exercise/sale and for ISOs--just exercise. See transactions on 9/16/14 and 5/15/15. I concur his motivation for just exercising ISOs is for LTCGs, Note: If you got back to 2011 and 2012 transactions he had several outright sales--likely they were more than a year after he previously exercised ISOs.
 
Also wrong. The tax must be paid at the time of exercise; the brokerage has to remit it. .

Except the employer may be the withholder:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312510068933/dex103a.htm

"7. EXERCISE...
(b) By exercising your option you agree that, as a condition to any exercise of your option, the Company may require you to enter into an arrangement providing for the payment by you to the Company of any tax withholding obligation of the Company arising by reason of (1) the exercise of your option, (2) the lapse of any substantial risk of forfeiture to which the shares of Common Stock are subject at the time of exercise, or (3) the disposition of shares of Common Stock acquired upon such exercise....

10. WITHHOLDING OBLIGATIONS.

(a) At the time you exercise your option, in whole or in part, or at any time thereafter as requested by the Company, you hereby authorize withholding from payroll and any other amounts payable to you, and otherwise agree to make adequate provision for (including by means of a cashless or broker-assisted exercise), any sums required to satisfy the federal, state, local and foreign tax withholding obligations of the Company or an Affiliate, if any, which arise in connection with your option.
(b) Upon your request and subject to compliance with any applicable conditions or restrictions of law, the Company may withhold from fully vested shares of Common Stock otherwise issuable to you upon the exercise of your option a number of whole shares of Common Stock having a Fair Market Value, determined by the Company as of the date of exercise, not in excess of the minimum amount of tax required to be withheld by law. If the date of determination of any tax withholding obligation is deferred to a date later than the date of exercise of your option, share withholding pursuant to the preceding sentence shall not be permitted unless you make a proper and timely election under Section 83(b) of the Code, covering the aggregate number of shares of Common Stock acquired upon such exercise with respect to which such determination is otherwise deferred, to accelerate the determination of such tax withholding obligation to the date of exercise of your option. Notwithstanding the filing of such election, shares of Common Stock shall be withheld solely from fully vested shares of Common Stock determined as of the date of exercise of your option that are otherwise issuable to you upon such exercise. Any adverse consequences to you arising in connection with such share withholding procedure shall be your sole responsibility...
14. ISO EXERCISE LIMITATION.
(a) If your option is an incentive stock option, the aggregate Fair Market Value of the shares of Common Stock with respect to which you may exercise your option for the first time during any calendar year, when added to the aggregate Fair Market Value of the shares of Common Stock subject to any other options designated as Incentive Stock Options and granted to you under any stock option plan of the Company or an Affiliate prior to the Date of Grant with respect to which such options are exercisable for the first time during the same calendar year, shall not exceed $100,000 (the “ISO Exercise Limitation”) unless applicable law requires that your option be exercisable sooner.1
(b) Notwithstanding the provisions of paragraph 4(a), if the ISO Exercise Limitation would prevent you from exercising your option as to vested shares, then the ISO
Exercise Limitation shall terminate as to such vested shares as such shares vest, and you may exercise your option as to such vested shares. Upon such termination of the ISO Exercise Limitation, your option shall be deemed a Nonstatutory Stock Option to the extent of the number of vested shares of Common Stock subject to your option that would otherwise exceed the ISO Exercise Limitation."

When Elon exercises the remainder of the 2009 grant, there might be a temporary $450 million increase in the cash balance depending on the proximity to quarter-end.

Mods: Apologies if the above is too much in the weeds for ST Price discussion. Delete/move as you wish
 
Showing off the Model X at car shows is a big step for Tesla because such shows will create demand for X and could potentially shift some demand from S to X. Such a move only makes sense if the company officers are confident the ramp will go well in the near future.

Another big step would be to put Model X vehicles in Tesla stores prior to the March 31 blowout event. If X is in stores and people are lining up to get in those stores on March 31, Tesla will be looking very solid.

Nice! They absolutely need to have the Model X in stores for March 31. You don't miss a photo op like that with all the local press cruising around.
 
non-qualified stock options result in additional taxable income to the recipient at the time that they are exercised not vested, source one of many:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-qualified_stock_option


Well sure looks like more than 100K for JB in Incentive options according to his filing, maybe you should let him know it's in error so he doesn't get a tax penalty :smile:

http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1494727-16-24&CIK=1318605

I actually meant to say taxable at exercise. I was focused on the incorrect info you were giving out re ISOs. Trust me, I know how options and equity comp are taxed. You can read all my analyses on the tax impact of his earlier exercises if you want, check my post history from a couple weeks ago.

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Except the employer may be the withholder:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312510068933/dex103a.htm

"7. EXERCISE...
(b) By exercising your option you agree that, as a condition to any exercise of your option, the Company may require you to enter into an arrangement providing for the payment by you to the Company of any tax withholding obligation of the Company arising by reason of (1) the exercise of your option, (2) the lapse of any substantial risk of forfeiture to which the shares of Common Stock are subject at the time of exercise, or (3) the disposition of shares of Common Stock acquired upon such exercise....

10. WITHHOLDING OBLIGATIONS.

(a) At the time you exercise your option, in whole or in part, or at any time thereafter as requested by the Company, you hereby authorize withholding from payroll and any other amounts payable to you, and otherwise agree to make adequate provision for (including by means of a cashless or broker-assisted exercise), any sums required to satisfy the federal, state, local and foreign tax withholding obligations of the Company or an Affiliate, if any, which arise in connection with your option.
(b) Upon your request and subject to compliance with any applicable conditions or restrictions of law, the Company may withhold from fully vested shares of Common Stock otherwise issuable to you upon the exercise of your option a number of whole shares of Common Stock having a Fair Market Value, determined by the Company as of the date of exercise, not in excess of the minimum amount of tax required to be withheld by law. If the date of determination of any tax withholding obligation is deferred to a date later than the date of exercise of your option, share withholding pursuant to the preceding sentence shall not be permitted unless you make a proper and timely election under Section 83(b) of the Code, covering the aggregate number of shares of Common Stock acquired upon such exercise with respect to which such determination is otherwise deferred, to accelerate the determination of such tax withholding obligation to the date of exercise of your option. Notwithstanding the filing of such election, shares of Common Stock shall be withheld solely from fully vested shares of Common Stock determined as of the date of exercise of your option that are otherwise issuable to you upon such exercise. Any adverse consequences to you arising in connection with such share withholding procedure shall be your sole responsibility...
14. ISO EXERCISE LIMITATION.
(a) If your option is an incentive stock option, the aggregate Fair Market Value of the shares of Common Stock with respect to which you may exercise your option for the first time during any calendar year, when added to the aggregate Fair Market Value of the shares of Common Stock subject to any other options designated as Incentive Stock Options and granted to you under any stock option plan of the Company or an Affiliate prior to the Date of Grant with respect to which such options are exercisable for the first time during the same calendar year, shall not exceed $100,000 (the “ISO Exercise Limitation”) unless applicable law requires that your option be exercisable sooner.1
(b) Notwithstanding the provisions of paragraph 4(a), if the ISO Exercise Limitation would prevent you from exercising your option as to vested shares, then the ISO
Exercise Limitation shall terminate as to such vested shares as such shares vest, and you may exercise your option as to such vested shares. Upon such termination of the ISO Exercise Limitation, your option shall be deemed a Nonstatutory Stock Option to the extent of the number of vested shares of Common Stock subject to your option that would otherwise exceed the ISO Exercise Limitation."

When Elon exercises the remainder of the 2009 grant, there might be a temporary $450 million increase in the cash balance depending on the proximity to quarter-end.

Mods: Apologies if the above is too much in the weeds for ST Price discussion. Delete/move as you wish

Taxes are most definitely collected by the employer from the employee at the time of exercise and immediately remitted to the irs. At my employer the exercising employee fills out a form indicating how they want to pay and gives it to me - check, withhold shares or delivery of already owned shares. About 95% choose to withhold shares. I then get the tax info after the market closes that day for the tax dept and I work with the transfer agent to make sure the irs gets paid. All has to be done same day.
 
None of that explains the 10% miss in deliveries in 2014. Guided 35k and delivered 31,500.

Yes, there are rational reasons why the should be able to do 80k deliveries. But, even a guidance of 75-85k would have blown people away. What did they gain from pushing the envelope to the very edge? I can't see a beat in the works, so the best they can do is meet. Any hiccups and 2016 will be another miss - even if they deliver 79,000 - which would be DANG good in my book. But, now, with their guidance, it will be nothing more than another Tesla/Musk miss.

This year's guidance, in my opinion, is one of the weakest they've ever done.

Their guidance is basically achievable with zero Model S growth, and that Model X delivery backlog is cleared out this year with maybe half a quarter to two quarter's worth of additional MX production thrown in.

50k MS last year + 26k backlog = just 4k under the lowest bound of their guidance.

A 75k guidance would assume negative Model S growth, with no additional Model X's ever ordered beside the backlog.

I'm extremely confident that they will hit the upper bound, or exceed deliveries this year. It all rests on the Model X ramp of course, but if they go as (currently) planned their guidance will be laughably easy to hit. Videos of Model X's beating high-end sports cars at the drag strip will also generate publicity that'll dwarf what you see of the MS now.

It's not like the Model X removed any capability for Tesla to churn out Model S's at the same rate they did previously, in any appreciable way.
 
Apparently the article referenced above is the recent cover story of Bloomberg Business week. Not the program I saw, but an interview of Peter Coy, one of the authors, and summary of the article is at: Oil Is the Cheap Date From Hell - Bloomberg Business

Best.

That's an excellent article. Thanks!


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This year's guidance, in my opinion, is one of the weakest they've ever done.

Their guidance is basically achievable with zero Model S growth, and that Model X delivery backlog is cleared out this year with maybe half a quarter to two quarter's worth of additional MX production thrown in.

50k MS last year + 26k backlog = just 4k under the lowest bound of their guidance.

A 75k guidance would assume negative Model S growth, with no additional Model X's ever ordered beside the backlog.

I'm extremely confident that they will hit the upper bound, or exceed deliveries this year. It all rests on the Model X ramp of course, but if they go as (currently) planned their guidance will be laughably easy to hit. Videos of Model X's beating high-end sports cars at the drag strip will also generate publicity that'll dwarf what you see of the MS now.

It's not like the Model X removed any capability for Tesla to churn out Model S's at the same rate they did previously, in any appreciable way.

I think so, too. The shared assembly could be a bottleneck though if assembly of the X is slightly more complicated than for S. But should be a minor concern.
 
It may be achievable but I don't think it will be easy to sell 50k Model S when it is a year older and the X is available. That is assuming that they can make and deliver 30k X
I believe it is probable and not difficult at all. The car is not in all markets and no significant marketing. As there are more stores opened and market spreads there will be more awareness and greater opportunity. The state issues will be attacked more aggressively with potentially the courts. Tesla is not applying for dealership in Michigan in hope of them changing their mind, it is to optimize conditions for the courts. As more people own the car and realize the bs written about it the word of mouth only accelerates. Even the bolt mass marketed will encourage people to shop the competition. The spread of the superchargers will also stimulate it. At least 1/3 of the time I supercharge, I am approached by people asking about the car (particularly in areas without much penetration). I see the sales increasing, not decreasing
 
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