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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Also, the paint shop capacity of 500,000 per week you cited seems way too high compared to the other production components (one car out of the paint shop evey 1.2 s if operating 24/7 :scared:). Did they mean "per year"? Or will they offer a monthly color change option ;)?
500k per week must be an error.

EDIT: I initially wasn't realizing that the *per week* rate was the error. Nor did I notice hobbes question of whether they meant per year. I notice Gerardf's source stated per year and since I found it anyway here is another one:

Elon Musk said:
And I think we've got a lot accomplished there. For Model 3, the biggest single item is the paint shop. So the paint shop is sized to be able to do 10,000 cars a week. So we've laid the foundations for that rate in the paint shop.
And here is another article from last year:
Dürr receives largest robot order from Tesla | Spray Finishing News

Anyway the 500,000/yr number for the paint shop is not an error. EDIT: but the 500,000/wk certainly is.
 
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So far four different german ministries haven't reached a deal on incentives for EV's.
Sectretary of finance Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Kauder, head of the christian party bundestag members are opposing the proposal three ministries agree on.
Both are from southern germany (Daimler, Audi and BMW). Mr. Kauder has opposed incentives for EV's as long as i can remember.
 
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From my SOS TDAmerica news page:

By William Boston

GENEVA--Volkswagen AG's emissions-cheating scandal is giving a boost to discussions across Europe, especially in Germany, on how to create public policy that will promote development of electric vehicles, a senior executive at TM said Tuesday.
"Dieselgate was a catalytic moment and has probably accelerated certain developments," said Diarmuid O'Connell, vice president of corporate and business development.
Mr. O'Connell said a discussion in Germany about providing taxpayer financed rebates on electric car purchases shows that the policy debate may be "shifting from supporting research and development to consumer incentives to draw the consumer into the market."
 
Sorry, turns out not much new. The indices had a chance to confirm a bottom today based on the charts I look at but ended up reversing instead and maintaining status quo - confusion. Depending on the close I was going to take my hedges off, but had to keep them instead. It is unfortunate, because the macro markets is the missing piece for me before I can play TSLA more aggressively.

TSLA did end up holding up and forming the hammer reversal candle on the monthly chart. At the same time bears and agnostic traders looking at short/medium term resistance are selling 195-205. My view is that long term technicals always supersede shorter term ones - in this case long term reversal candle(that not many are looking at) > short term resistance(that everyone is looking at). This dynamic has the making of a bear trap especially if we get above 205. This would have been significant had macro markets obliged, but as is I wouldn't act on it until further confirmation.

One more thing, after TSLA's monthly reversal, I am now no longer willing to buy it on weakness, but rather will buy(add to) it on strength. This might be counter intuitive, but the reason is because TSLA is now set up technically to go higher - so when it confirms this and actually does go up I will press and be more aggressive. However, if it acts differently than it is "supposed to" and goes down instead, I will sell. Pulling back to 180 would be fine, but anything below 160-70 would ring alarm bells. On the other hand, if we break above 205, and especially 220(the original price I said I would reenter at) it would be major buys and tipping points for shorts.

This looks a lot to me like feeling in the dark through scenario that I had illuminated months ago. I have not seen the need to say a lot lately because I don't think there are any really gross misunderstandings to debunk. TSLA has exited the period of gross volatility that I was on and on about prior to showing some of the numbers and guidance for the year and is now on the first upward leg and has been since ER. Pre-market currently $194.70. For sure there will be some resistance to break through at $200 and $220 and each time the curve will very likely accelerate upwards more steeply. Each to their own but for my taste insurance right now is an expensive indulgence. The next thing I am concerned about is a practically guaranteed bear attack surrounding the Model 3 unveil but not sooner than a week before and if a bear attack comes and if it has any effect at all then that effect IMO is unlikely to endure for more than two weeks afterwards. If there is a sell on the news following the Model 3 unveil then that I think the subsequent recovery will be steep indeed considering the consumer media will go nuts for the Tesla brand and drown out the bears - and that would offer a perfect set-up for a short term options trade.
 
Model X Signatures are invited to configure in the EU.

Price list in Norway, according to a Signature reservation holder on the Norwegian elbilforum.no:

70D base: 709000,- NOK ($82000)
90D Upgrade: +133000,- NOK (plus to 70D, including Air Suspension) (+ $15376)
P90D Performance Upgrade: +304300,- NOK (plus to 70D, including Air Suspension, Performance) (+ $35188)

Pricey.
 
So far four different german ministries haven't reached a deal on incentives for EV's.
Sectretary of finance Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Kauder, head of the christian party bundestag members are opposing the proposal three ministries agree on.
Both are from southern germany (Daimler, Audi and BMW). Mr. Kauder has opposed incentives for EV's as long as i can remember.

Looks like they agreed on ev incentives of 5000 euro:

http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/01...-car-subsidy-with-automakers-contributing-40/
 
I don't have much time so I'll just make this short. I was skeptical about the delays in the X ramp, but I drove the X over the weekend and was blown away... The P90DL quite literally feels like an A380 taking off from 0-100... So big, so fast, and yet, surprisingly, it feels amazingly safe doing launches in that car! I'm not a reservation holder but I was very tempted to reserve one the moment I got out of it... Also the falcon wing doors are amazing! The test car was a founder's series so it obviously had some of the early bugs, but nothing you would notice unless you were looking for it. The white on white looks amazing in person, and is really the only way to configure the car imo. also the 6-seat option is fantastic. It's a great car for moving people, not so much for lugging cargo (definitely lacking of storage space relative to other SUVs). Overall I think it's going to be a huge hit. Elon wasn't exaggurating when he said X is a better CUV than S is a sedan.
 
Somewhat confusing that this "incentive", purportedly intended to reduce the higher costs associated with emerging technologies, is partially being borne by the manufacturer.

Not really.

In this case the manufacturers will pay into a fund (maybe based on cars sold?) and then money will be claimed from the fund by purchasers.

The effect of ZEV credits is really similar: there's an effective cost per car sold because they need to get credits, and then they try to minimize the overall cost of the ZEV credit requirements.
 
Model X Signatures are invited to configure in the EU.

Price list in Norway, according to a Signature reservation holder on the Norwegian elbilforum.no:

70D base: 709000,- NOK ($82000)
90D Upgrade: +133000,- NOK (plus to 70D, including Air Suspension) (+ $15376)
P90D Performance Upgrade: +304300,- NOK (plus to 70D, including Air Suspension, Performance) (+ $35188)

Pricey.

Loaded MX in Germany is 172000€. Crazy.
 
Loaded MX in Germany is 172000€. Crazy.

What's the pricing like for a fully loaded GLE AMG, X6M, Cayenne GTS? I'm not entirely sure of Euro pricing there. For what you get in the X (plus fuel savings) it's almost apples to apples. I say almost because the Model X will spank them in performance. Driving the car is so futuristic it's bananas. In addition, you have companies like Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati, and Bentley making SUV offerings costing WAY more.
 
With the the major indices up over 1% and TSLA hovering around the $195 price, where do you guys think the stock will go in the next couple days ? I feel a pullback coming into the market fairly soon (maybe in the next 2 weeks) based on how much stocks have risen over the past couple weeks but I could be wrong and TSLA could very well continue to rise in anticipation of the Model 3 debut. What are you guy's thoughts ?
 
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