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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Next week we close the $240 gap. Which means that model 3 hype will probably push it higher.
So here is what I am expecting.
If the hype is not good, then it drops back down to $240.
If the hype is good, I.e. long lineups 50 000 reservations after April 2ndnd. Good aesthetics, 1 surprise feature that will not overovercomplicate engineering We go to $300 within a month.
So here is what I am expecting.
If the hype is not good, then it drops back down to $240.
If the hype is good, I.e. long lineups 50 000 reservations after April 2ndnd. Good aesthetics, 1 surprise feature that will not overovercomplicate engineering We go to $300 within a month.
I largely agree with your post. I think Wall Street already expects the Model 3 to look good, perform well, have 200mile+ range, etc. So, I think it's going to be difficult to surpass those expectations with the Model 3 event... thus we might have a sell the news event.
However, I think there are a couple areas where Tesla could surpass expectations.
One is demand, like you mentioned. If Tesla can show reservation numbers within a week of opening reservations, and the number is between 50-100k, then I think that would be special and very good for the stock.
Second is the production ramp. Right now, investors are skeptical regarding Tesla's future promises. But if Elon can show more tangible numbers/guidance for Model 3 ramp, then that could be good. For example, how many cars by end of 2017? How many cars in 2018? Or if Elon says that founder cars will be delivered in summer 2017 and regular deliveries by end of 2017, then that would be good as well.
Otherwise, just because Model 3 looks good and is sexy, it probably won't mean the stock will respond well. I'd be more looking for tangible evidence of demand and clear production ramp plans.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Causalien, what sort of hype are you talking about, investors hype or consumer hype? Consumer hype for the Model 3 is a solid good for investors, but investor hype is a fickle thing.
I think Tesla/Elon said that there wouldn't be any Signature versions of the Model 3. But that doesn't mean there won't be any Founders edition, which I'd expect there to be.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Tesla employees have first dibs this time around, and they're getting the most exclusive edition of all: the Maker's edition. Their cars will quite literally carry their own Signatures all over. After that, what would a Founder's edition even mean?
(And I wonder which of those makers will ever sell their car? "Dude, are you crazy? I ain't selling this to you. This is the original. I made it.")
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McMuggets
Member
I must say, I think we could go to $350 by end of May if the Q1 numbers sound good on top of all that is happening. Some possible surprises:
1. Model 3 reservation numbers get announced at the intro of the reveal event. They smash expectations.
2. Model 3 production date gets surprise production date move to earlier. You never know... it's unlikely, but judging by analyst visits to Freemont, it sounds like Tesla is geared up to be punching these cars out fast as possible. See the silhouette of the Model 3 teaser? Superimposed onto the Model S, you can see it is an exact fit. Tesla has never had a fake silhouette for any car reveal teasers in the past. Must mean it's easy to produce with existing designs being very close to the Model S!
3. Tesla announces awesome updates to the Model S and X line. P100D, autopilot v2, etc.
4. Tesla Energy surprises and posts more revenue than expected, since Gigafactory is up and running earlier than expected.
5. Model 3 is almost 100% aluminum. At least in the body panels. This would be a huge wow.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
TSLA is not a bank stock so the investors are one and the same right now.
Most are hft and shorts and I'd guess 20~30% are actual retail investors. Last I checked, TSLA is not in any fund's #1 holding, so investor hype is minimal. We don't have early funding round venture capitals trying to exit, so The only investor hype is probably from Merill since their situation with TSLA is most similar to a series B venture capital firm.
Actually, I like the looks of it. What I meant was I don't buy cars for looks; the shadow of my engineering undergraduate degree in me is dominant, but every time I see that grey MS in my neighborhood I think, gee, it looks great too!
chickensevil
Active Member
Wow, putting a number to it like that, that's quite meaningful. I'm not sure how realistic 50 per store on average actually is, but if we get ~10k reservations before the event even happens that would be pretty significant in my mind.
As I mentioned before, two coworkers that I know of are going to camp the store, so there is at least three people for our store going to be there
although I'm not camping out, I will certainly go put a deposit down right after work just to make sure I am as early in the list as possible.
chickensevil
Active Member
Agreed, except for the note about waiting a week. To avoid a sell the news event on the 1st they MUST push something newsworthy on the 31st.
Again this is about figuring out the initial direction the price will go up to around 1-2 weeks after reveal. Quarter numbers, X progress, and waiting a week to post demand numbers will all help *stop* the sell the news event, but it won't *avoid* it.
If you are dealing with stock or at least holding shares for three-six months from now (or greater) then this is all a meaningless exercise.
If you are trying to trade on the event itself (up, down, or flat) then this is an important distinction. Especially if you are trading options for an April 1st expiration (that is going to be way too much risk for my blood, and anything I buy will be at least 1 week out.) To avoid IV crush, you need to not only get the direction right, but you need to be expecting something beyond expectations and concensus. This means, lines outside of stores and Elon saying "we had X many reservations before even showing the car... Oh by the way, here it is!"
That or some feature that isn't expected that would *increase* the value of this car to make it even more compelling (note I said value, not cost, value is 300 miles, cost is charging someone 80k in order to get there).
For those interested in the M3 Reservation time detail logistics.
I was able to confirm with both local store and Corp sales that Stores will open at their normal times, typically 10AM. But won't take Reservations until 10AM Pacific, so 1PM here on the East coast. No time zone advantage.
Also covered for my situation:
Outside of the per person limit, a family member can reserve for another member without both needing to be in line- as long as they have the needed info- name, contact, etc.
I was able to confirm with both local store and Corp sales that Stores will open at their normal times, typically 10AM. But won't take Reservations until 10AM Pacific, so 1PM here on the East coast. No time zone advantage.
Also covered for my situation:
Outside of the per person limit, a family member can reserve for another member without both needing to be in line- as long as they have the needed info- name, contact, etc.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
In a fit of nostalgia, I went down memory lane and found this post from 3 years ago today:
On the day this was posted, TSLA stood at $35.08. It went on to close at $43.93 on April 1, $53.99 on April 30, and $110.33 on May 28. If we find ourselves on a spacetime trajectory parallel to that one, on May 28 we should close at... $731.99.
Easy-peasy.
I wonder what posts from the last few weeks will be worth digging up 3 years from now. Hopefully, Julian's.
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Any references to specific securities are for informational purposes only and therefore should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a security. If you need guidance with your investments, please consult your financial advisor. Better yet, take a good look at all the information that is right in front of your nose and make your own decision already.
On the day this was posted, TSLA stood at $35.08. It went on to close at $43.93 on April 1, $53.99 on April 30, and $110.33 on May 28. If we find ourselves on a spacetime trajectory parallel to that one, on May 28 we should close at... $731.99.
Easy-peasy.
I wonder what posts from the last few weeks will be worth digging up 3 years from now. Hopefully, Julian's.
--
Any references to specific securities are for informational purposes only and therefore should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a security. If you need guidance with your investments, please consult your financial advisor. Better yet, take a good look at all the information that is right in front of your nose and make your own decision already.
sub
Active Member
I'm planning to be at the Rocklin CA store with my daughter, I'll be reserving 2. It would be great if we can cover as many stores as possible and report back here before market close, could be some valuable information for anyone wanting to trade the reveal event.
What I'd love to see at the reveal is some type of visual depiction of orders received for Model 3, a board that shows total orders received and is updated once a second, or more frequently than that. With employee purchases and walk-in deposits already taken care of before the event, we'll have a ton of orders to start the event with, and then the board goes nuts as the online reservations start during the reveal event. Coincidental timing? I think not.
Visited with a high school friend I hadn't seen in a few years. He works for a small engineering firm. He's an EE. He said a Tesla is every engineer's dream car at his office. Not a huge sample but interesting. He drives an older Porsche but wants a Model S himself. Most people I meet still have no idea what a Tesla is. They always ask me who makes it. But people who have any significant interest in technology seem to know Tesla and it is their aspiration vehicle. As more people get to drive these cars the more people will buy these cars, especially when the Model Ξ is out and about. For now though the shills and the shorts will manipulate the stock as best they can. Yes "It's not a car, it's a Tesla." I like that.
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