Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

It is true that previous reveals and presentations (X deliveries, unveiling the D) did not help the stock in any way. My hunch is that this is different.

We will see long lines outside of Tesla stores. We will see staggering numbers of deposits. These will put upward pressure on the stock.

It is also true that the market wants to see less sizzle, more steak....which is why we're not at 350 right now. But the X ramp was delayed, not cancelled. When we see X deliveries take off in Q2 (and Tesla Energy ramp up in Q4), the bear argument that Tesla can't deliver will be much more difficult to defend.

 

[PaulRocket]

Here are some reasons one should not sell before the reveal:
1. Expecting a HUGE line at every store on 31st.
2. All recent positive analyst comments
3. By the Model X reveal last year, tsla reached $270ish. This is model 3, the hype is even larger.
4. Market is trending up. Fed is on our side with 2 hikes vs. 4 this year
5. Tsla is on a V shape recovery, huge uptrend. It just knocked out 200 days MA
6. Gigafactory activities, powerpacks/walls
7. Expecting announcement for a china partner by june, could be any time.
8. X ramping up has been obvious, no reason for delay or not meeting 16000 deliveries.
9. I am lining up on 3/31 for my $25000 tesla (after tax refund).
10. 34 million shares short must be freaking out right now.
I am holding all options until 3/31 unless we reach $270 before then

Yes! Also don't forget all the things Elon hasn't been talking about in recent weeks. They will soon reveal the snake charger, higher supercharging times should be coming some time...

Is there a thread were I can read more about the china partner?

 

[hershey101]

So for those of you who don't know already, Model 3 reservations for employees are already open. My friend reserved his on Friday, and the confirmation claims deliveries begin late 2017... (I don't believe that)

 

[Krugerrand]

My friend reserved his on Friday, and the confirmation claims deliveries begin late 2017... (I don't believe that)

Well, at least Tesla's communication is consistent with employees apparently being told the exact same thing as everyone else.

 

[chickensevil]

Yes, the Model 3 might be Tesla's holy grail, but the question is more about execution.

Can Tesla really pull off the car by the end of 2017? Maybe they will sneak by a few founder edition cars on Dec 31, 2017. Then, it could take them 3-4 months to hash out issues before they start making non-founder deliveries. And then scaling/ramping might be difficult (ie., when has Tesla ever had a smooth ramp?). So, maybe they deliver 5 founder cars on Dec 31, 2017. 3,000 cars in 1st half 2018. 20,000 cars in 2nd half 2018. Then, in 2019 maybe they ramp production but it's not that easy as they need a lot of investment to ramp. So maybe in 2019 they produce/deliver 100,000 Model 3s. In 2020, maybe 175k Model 3s.

So the car might be great, but the real question is if Tesla can really ramp production and hash out problems before production. They don't have a great track record with this. And with high Wall Street expectations, I wonder if Tesla will be able to meet those expectations. Also, Tesla is responsible with giving those expectations as well (ie., 500k cars by 2020). If Tesla doesn't meet or beat the expectations they've given to Wall Street, then don't expect the stock to perform well.

This is exactly what I was trying to get at with regard to figuring out the impact the reveal itself would have on the price.

It isn't about them releasing a great product. Everyone expects that. It isn't about it hitting price, performance and range metrics, we have known roughly all three of those for a long time. So to Wall Street, what new thing are they going to get about this reveal?

There is but one thing, and that is demand levels. If demand can be shown to be off the charts for a prototype that many people never saw, and those that did likely only saw pictures/video and even fewer got to see and touch in person... Well then that might have value to the market. How much value is unclear, especially since we get nothing but the same promise we have been getting for the past 2 years, that the Model 3 would hit the streets by the end of 2017.

What will have changed? Likely nothing... And if there is perception that the price is ramping up because of the anticipation of new and impactful news then there will certainly be a drop on the 1st of April when the market opens.

Now come the 4th, delivery numbers, that could have good impact on the price. So it might be a short lived drop, but I really not anticipating market value to right on a promise... A promise that has been made already...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

We broke $220 and $230 levels, 200 day moving average with ok volumes.
Ok, but not great.
I'd love to hear Jesse's take on it, but in admin's infinite wisdom, he's still banned. It really sours me on TMC.

In my own pedestrian ways, I've been doing what everyone with options has been doing, peeling off shortest and riskiest assets (and moving them into '18 leaps). Pace of doing it is the question here. I now have 50% left of June, high beta calls. It scares me to have that many, but, it's fastest way to get portfolio back where it was - if it works...

 

[The Blue Owl]

This move with giving employees early access for the Model 3 registrations is brilliant on so many levels.

Working at Tesla is known to be highly meaningful and highly stressful for its employees. It's one thing to work tirelessly for an abstract goal or sense of the mission, as noble as it is. But to go to the factory every morning, or evening, or whatever time it is, to build your own piece of history, is on a whole other level. This mindset will be shared by a large number of employees (maybe even a majority), so it will permeate the whole place. They won't be toiling only to deliver other people babies, but their very own, and that buzz will be unstoppable.

From the unconditional 8-year warranty for the battery, to the 90-day happiness guarantee, to Elon guaranteeing the resale value of the Model S with his own money, and now to Tesla's workers and engineers personally invested on a large scale, it all screams to the world Tesla's commitment to their product. When the car starts rolling off the line in numbers less than 2 years from now, skeptics will be left on the side of the road feeling not just that they missed an opportunity to make money, but more importantly an opportunity to be part of something big. That kind of bitterness stays with you forever.

 

[jhm]

My 10-year-old just spotted her first Model X, Decatur, GA. I asked how she knew it was a Model X. She said it was the door handles close together. That's my girl, one up on her mom and dad.

 

[Curt Renz]

...I could care less about the looks of the car...

Sorry, but this was also a pet peeve of my late mother.

 

[dc_h]

Sorry, but this was also a pet peeve of my late mother.

Irregardless, I could care more.

 

[jhm]

My 10-year-old just spotted her first Model X, Decatur, GA. I asked how she knew it was a Model X. She said it was the door handles close together. That's my girl, one up on her mom and dad.

Follow up...

It turns out that the Decatur store is having a Model X Meet event. The store is only a block away from where we were having lunch when my daughter spotted the X. So we went to the store and saw 3 Model X. Beautiful car. For my family of 3, the Model S fits us better, but I'm sure alot of families are going to love the X.

Additionally the store parking lot was loaded with more Model S than I've seen at this store, and they were receiving shipment from two semis. So it looks like Decatur will deliver a lot of product this quarter.

Go Tesla.

 

[Xpert]

Yes! Also don't forget all the things Elon hasn't been talking about in recent weeks. They will soon reveal the snake charger, higher supercharging times should be coming some time...

Is there a thread were I can read more about the china partner?

Yeah possibly snake charger and P100D at reveal. On 3/31 i will take a day off work and will be standing in line at fremont or dublin store before 8am Pst with my sell button (june 16 calls) ready if I dont see a huge line. If the line is long, the press will be all over this by mid day and Tsla might shoot up the roof. I will let you know how long the line will be!
Heres an article on china partner first half this year and factory in 2 year.
Tesla wants a factory in China, and fast

 

[Krugerrand]

Follow up.

We play a revised game from childhood, count the (fill in the blank - used to be Beetles when I was a kid). 1 point for a Model S spotting, 10 for a Model X. Can't count vehicles at a Tesla store. Must be out in the wild, but you can count the whole kit and caboodle if you spot the transport truck first.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

We play a revised game from childhood, count the (fill in the blank - used to be Beetles when I was a kid). 1 point for a Model S spotting, 10 for a Model X. Can't count vehicles at a Tesla store. Must be out in the wild, but you can count the whole kit and caboodle if you spot the transport truck first.

I would score a lot of points here in Norway then today I saw 4 Model S in random parking spot. They're all over the place! Still no Model X though, but they'll be plenty..

My guess is Model 3 will be the most sold car for years to come

 

[Chickenlittle]

This move with giving employees early access for the Model 3 registrations is brilliant on so many levels.

Would love to know how many applied for the model3 reveal lottery. It would be a good indication of demand for model 3 reservations

 

[jhm]

Yeah, thanks Auzie for adding the words "sight unseen" (my bolding) to this discussion. So true, and that really says it all as far as demand is concerned.

And adding to the sentiments Julian has recently expressed, I can honestly say I have had in my own mind a desire to have a Tesla-type car long before it even existed, probably before Elon was born. Of course, I couldn't picture how it would be, but I had a very clear understanding of everything that was wrong with the status quo. Oil, oil wars, pollution, much more wasted heat than useful motion from an ICE, dealerships, insurance...and at every step the car owning costumer is hostage to racketeering on an industrial scale. It has offended me for the whole of my adult life.

Dare I say it...that there could be latent demand for an escape from this legallised form of racketeering in almost every hostage (I mean adult person) alive today?

The problem is...we haven't found a way to express it.

IMO, if Model 3 specs turn out to be anywhere in the range of our expectations, people will suddenly find a way to say that which those like me could never say before.

Sometimes you just need a noun or name to get a handle on the idea or object you want to communicate. Until you have it, there is nothing to say...no conversation.

I expect a pandemic of Tesla awareness after the Model 3 reveal. In Europe, the value proposition will be so great that awareness cannot be suppressed. Also, we don't have obstacles to Tesla's direct sales model AFAIK, like there are in so many US states.

And I say again to jhm...it won't be a hard sell, the desire to escape the racketeering is hard wired into every potential customer ...I mean why do some people already pay too much (over a comparable ICE) for an inadequate EV?

All Tesla needs to do is tickle the collective consciousness with an adequate EV. And it's about to happen.

Wombat, I appreciate your enthusiam. How long have you been invested in Tesla? I've continuously held shares since they were priced at $53. I've been through all the highs and lows in between. You will find few investors as patient and bullish as me. I have never fallen for the demand constrained FUD. But I have been there through thick and thin, while other hyped up bulls have lost faith. The emphasis that I place on customer experience and grow thing the customer base methodically is based on a longer-term term view of the company. A solid, well cultivated customer base is a huge moat for Tesla. Consider the advantage Apple has enjoyed having a large, loyal customer base willing to pay a premium for its products. This is something I want for Tesla too, and it is well within reach. There are about 95 million families in the US. By 2025 I'd like to see more that 20 million Tesla families in this country. These families will own new Tesla cars, CPO cars, and Powerwalls. A solid customer base like that puts Tesla on a path toward 20% marketshare in the auto industry longer-term. Fish jumping in boats is thinking too small. We need massive ocean liners.

 

[SureValla]

There is but one thing, and that is demand levels. If demand can be shown to be off the charts for a prototype that many people never saw, and those that did likely only saw pictures/video and even fewer got to see and touch in person... Well then that might have value to the market. How much value is unclear, especially since we get nothing but the same promise we have been getting for the past 2 years, that the Model 3 would hit the streets by the end of 2017.

Totally agree with this being the main event (for investors) and take away from the reveal. As a result I think it's really important for every stock holder to place a deposit BEFORE the reveal event. I fully expect Elon to mention how many people have reservations before seeing the car.

Analysts want to know how much more cash on hand the company will have come the next day.

(10,000 employees + 50/store x 194 stores) x 1000$/reservation = 19.7 million

 

[ggies07]

Maybe they will sneak by a few founder edition cars

My understanding is that there are no special versions for the Model 3, just different packages. This was to make sure the ramp up starts quickly.

 

[McMuggets]

jhm

Wombat, I appreciate your enthusiam. How long have you been invested in Tesla? I've continuously held shares since they were priced at $53. I've been through all the highs and lows in between. You will find few investors as patient and bullish as me. I have never fallen for the demand constrained FUD. But I have been there through thick and thin, while other hyped up bulls have lost faith. The emphasis that I place on customer experience and grow thing the customer base methodically is based on a longer-term term view of the company. A solid, well cultivated customer base is a huge moat for Tesla. Consider the advantage Apple has enjoyed having a large, loyal customer base willing to pay a premium for its products. This is something I want for Tesla too, and it is well within reach. There are about 95 million families in the US. By 2025 I'd like to see more that 20 million Tesla families in this country. These families will own new Tesla cars, CPO cars, and Powerwalls. A solid customer base like that puts Tesla on a path toward 20% marketshare in the auto industry longer-term. Fish jumping in boats is thinking too small. We need massive ocean liners.

This is so very very true. Brand loyalty is growing huge for Tesla, to the point where it almost seems ludicrous (see what i did there?) to buy any other car brand EV or not. Where else can you get a car made by a company with safety in mind first (and truthfully mean it, as Elon once elaborated on) vs. bottom-line first. The best performance by many metrics and green as well. By the time other car makers catch up, if ever, Tesla will be well on it's way to becoming the next great dominant automobile/energy/technology company. Never sell your core shares people, these will pay for your children's college tuition and more.

 

[doctoxics]

It isn't about them releasing a great product. Everyone expects that. It isn't about it hitting price, performance and range metrics, we have known roughly all three of those for a long time. So to Wall Street, what new thing are they going to get about this reveal?

I agree that we know what to expect in the Model 3. We also know that the features and price combine to make the Model 3 the best car at its price point. Not sure that there are many outside of TMC or Tesla that understand this truly revolutionary aspect of the Model 3. Tesla has disrupted the luxury car market. They are about to disrupt most of the rest of the car market. This realization is about to become widely perceived following the reveal. The power of that realization on the perception of Tesla Motors as a company and the stock price cannot be overstated.