Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

I agree. I always take my investment advice from reliable sources, such as an internet bulletin board with anonymous members with acronyms such as Hogfighter, Familial Rhino, chickenlittle etc.

Now to the stock price today: what happened after the strong open? Dropping on surprisingly low volume.

Um.....ya got me there. At least Hogfighter is my real name.

 

[BriansTesla]

Looking at the right side of the veiled photo, with some pictures of a car's profiles, can anyone deduce if that's the detail on the covered car? In other words, "Enhance, anyone?"

Did you see this one?

 

[Julian Cox]

For what it's worth AAPL also more than doubled in 2007 after the iPhone presentation in January that year.

To some degree this is a war of credibility between longs and shorts and it will get increasingly harder for shorts. Sooner or later the market will realize who's story is correct..

I always thought that the whole point of investing was to get it right before everyone realizes you were, then they pay you.

Right now my most nagging investment thesis concern since Musk's tweet is, believe it or not, whether the frigging Wombat has actually called the timing of a greater than 500,000 unit capacity in 2020 themed fundraiser with greater accuracy. I am starting to think there is a 50:50 chance he might have, which would be vaguely embarrassing. This by the way would essentially translate in ball-park figures to $300 sooner rather than $400 later.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

RSI and MACD reset before picking a direction. Forming a base ~ $230. The lack of volume is interesting. Shorts are probably not expecting Elon to announce anything interesting, or are expecting the Model 三 to be a so so vehicle.

Elon wouldn't Tweet about possibly needing to increase production plans if Tesla wasn't confident about demand.

Some variation of the Model 三 has existed for a few months. It's always possible the version Tesla will release is completely different from what existed last month.

Months back, a number of people mentioned they saw the Model 三 but couldn't says anything because of NDA.

I'm guessing Tesla is planning to begin deliveries sooner than expected. The unveiling and initial demand will be a gauge of real demand for Tesla's suppliers. This will influence how much Panasonic and others are willing to invest, and how soon they will make the capital available.

I'm confident there are a number of companies planning to try to order a few hundred or a few thousand Model 三。 The other question that won't be answered tomorrow is how many vehicles built on Model 三 platform Tesla plans to release and what a time frame is for when they will be available.

Goldman Sachs, Gen III SUV, Model X 2015, from Tesla site

Recall the video I posted of an oil investor meeting that took place on March 5th? The entire presentation focused around the idea that the Gigafactory is 3 years behind schedule and only a drunken idiot would believe Tesla can sell more Electric Vehicles than all of the big automobile manufacturers.

Remember the days when every analyst was saying Tesla wouldn't be able to sell 12,000 vehicles annually? Tesla hasn't updated the 500,000 vehicle figure in a while. Tomorrow might be the right time.

 

[sunhelm]

Did you see this one?
View attachment 169289

No, no, I get the veiled car. Am referring to the pictures hung on the right, behind some bros having a chat.

 

[ssq]

Looking at the right side of the veiled photo, with some pictures of a car's profiles, can anyone deduce if that's the detail on the covered car? In other words, "Enhance, anyone?"

I see what you are asking about now, anyhow attached is the edge detection output

 

[RobStark]

As you so succinctly illustrate only in a world without choice of something materially better.

Just so - BASF and TDK had serious brand loyalty among brands of VHS tapes - arguably they still do assuming they both still exist.

Brand loyalty for $2-$25 products is nothing compared to brand loyalty for ~$35k products.

There is not much risk in switching technology in a low cost product.

In addition to the many pros Model 3 will also have relevant cons for many people. Charging times and range for people without access to overnight charging. And charging times for people that regularly do long distance driving.

 

[Tenable]

Prices dropping into the close. Color me confused.

 

[MartinAustin]

The number of people who'll plunk down $1,000 for a Model 3, according to that CNBC poll... is now up to 12,696.

 

[MartinAustin]

Prices dropping into the close. Color me confused.

We shouldn't be surprised if the sell-the-news reaction has begun a day early.

(I expected it to begin tomorrow)

 

[Tenable]

I've purchased two additional short term lottery calls today, also added on small amount (125) of shares. Fingers crossed going into next week.

 

[BobSk]

The number of people who'll plunk down $1,000 for a Model 3, according to that CNBC poll... is now up to 12,696.

Model 3 reservation is a whole world event. Most people don't go to CNBC to vote. I think that number times 50 or 100 will be the final reservation number.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

One of the funniest headlines I've seen all month.
Shell owned shares of Tesla?


http://zolmax.com/investing/tesla-m...ased-by-shell-asset-management-co/524262.html

 

[Curt Renz]

We shouldn't be surprised if the sell-the-news reaction has begun a day early.

(I expected it to begin tomorrow)

It appears as though weak longs have been de-risking by selling, and aggressive shorts have been adding to positions for over a week. They may feel they have "learned their lessons" about rises into Tesla events and selloffs afterward. Of course others have been buying, but less forcefully than the sellers.

The net effect has been muted price action going into tomorrow's event. That's unusual and may indicate there could be considerable buying on the news, especially by institutions, if the prototype Model 3 appears to be a winner and reservations are indicated to have been strong.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The number of people who'll plunk down $1,000 for a Model 3, according to that CNBC poll... is now up to 12,696.

And according to the CNBC poll :

82% of the 21,048 people who viewed the CNBC poll, and chose to answer it, said they plan to buy a Model 3.

Note:
TMC has 34,573 members.
Elon has 3.6 million followers on Twitter. His Tweet that did not include a link to the poll was liked 8,341 times.
Tesla Motors has 956k followers.( Neither the link or the poll were retweeted on Tesla Motors Twitter.)

Usually only a small percent of people who read an article with a poll respond to the poll. I forget the typical percent?

I suspect the article was read ~150,000 - 200,000 times. This is how many page views a typical widely read article about Tesla receives. This also includes people who read the article 2 or 3 times, meaning somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 people probably read the article.

In my opinion, the 81% figure is more important than the 12,696 figure.

 

[sunhelm]

And so the reservation begins in Australia...
Tesla Motors on Twitter

Check out those lines.

 

[lango]

I always thought that the whole point of investing was to get it right before everyone realizes you were, then they pay you.

Right now my most nagging investment thesis concern since Musk's tweet is, believe it or not, whether the frigging Wombat has actually called the timing of a greater than 500,000 unit capacity in 2020 themed fundraiser with greater accuracy. I am starting to think there is a 50:50 chance he might have, which would be vaguely embarrassing. This by the way would essentially translate in ball-park figures to $300 sooner rather than $400 later.

I assumed they wanted to be over the price point from the previous raise, but on the other hand with exponential growth it makes sense to do it as early as possible. I don't think they have decided what to do yet (but they ofc have a few options to choose from) and reservations will be a guide for taking that decision and they will not do the raise before the decision is made.

Personally, it would feel better if they did it at a higher price point than this but rationally the value of the company is maximized if they do it as early as they can. Another question then is how much to raise and how much a car factory cost.

 

[Gerasimental]

CarAdvice on Twitter

It has happened

 

[theschnell]

And so the reservation begins in Australia...
Tesla Motors on Twitter

Check out those lines.

Looks to be about 50 - 60 people. I am a little disappointed to be honest...

But all the S owners get priority anyway, so probably very few of them will be lining up now...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Looks to be about 50 - 60 people. I am a little disappointed to be honest...

You're disappointed by 50-60 people waiting at one store to put down $1000 for a vehicle they haven't seen that they will need to wait at least 1 year for?

A lot of people are probably waiting to see what the vehicle looks like and what features it will include, even if they are planning to put down a deposit regardless.

If 100 people make a deposit at every Tesla store/service center in the world before the release, Tesla will have 100,000 + deposits within 48 hours of the release. .