Launch postponed for a day due to lightning in the area.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Let's face it: you would not pay credence to that statement, or any statement, no matter what Mr. Musk did or said. Good luck with that seeking thing.
Well, that just really nails it.
Thank you for the word of caution. Although you do not appear confident enough in yourself to provide any details in your profile besides location "unknown", you must be applauded for implying with your screen name that you have earned a doctoral degree. That is honorable and certainly enhances your credibility. What was your area of doctoral studies? At which institution? In what year did you receive the degree? What was the subject of your doctoral thesis? If it was related to car manufacturing or the analysis of growth companies disrupting major industries, then we would certainly appreciate hearing much more from you. If it was related to seeking the value of established companies in stable industries as I learned in college, then this may not be the right forum for discussion.
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The
This I don't think so. I made some calculations before and think a 10% gross margin, even in the first year, is reachable. Because most would be loaded with options. For the basic $35k ones, yes, I think it won't have good margins during the 1st year.
I'm paraphrasing, but that is what I heard. He said Tesla will be ready to provide further info about battery storage in 1-2 quarters.
1) Many people expressing interest in the Model 3 are also expressing interest in the Powerwall.(50:19)
2) Model S demand has increased since Model 3 was announced. (51:30)
3) We won't need to rob from Tesla energy plans (15gwh annually), to satisfy Model 3 demand. We definitely have a way to solve both. There are reasons we have been been buying up more space in the surrounding area. The growth rate on a percentage basis for Tesla energy is certainly going to great than cars.
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This ER and CC painted a great picture for the Model 3. And some nice surprises on S and X (orders, deposits). Plus, I really like how they emphasize on making the Model 3 easier to manufacture. But the actual financial results are still lack-lusting. I think Tesla will do whatever it takes (like throwing out 500k in 2018) to maintain its SP. Wait for a huge beat on Q2 results, then raise capital.
I believe this is the reason..
Why I won’t be on the Tesla call tonight | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
As with all investments, it's a gamble. Since none of my retirement accounts are invested in or dependent upon TSLA, it is a gamble I am willing to take.
From what I can remember, Tesla said very little about the Model X design between January 2012 (concept reveal) and September 2015 (production reveal). The car was never even part of Tesla's original plan, which was to go from Generation 2 (Model S) to Generation 3 (Model 3).
I heard the exact same argument made in 2012, before the Model S went into production. The Model S was only projected to have demand of 20k/year, and it exited 2015 at 50k/year. I understand why risk-averse investors would not want to invest in TSLA however. This is not a value stock. It is a high-risk investment with extreme volatility, and I actively discourage most people from investing in it, because most people cannot stand the volatility. If you are seeking value, as your screen name suggests, then TSLA is definitely not for you.
You ask a very good question. I need to think about that extremely carefully (and I am but there is no quick answer). I said it would be an error to pull the trigger on this guidance upgrade in advance of having all the ammo in the chamber - like the full sweep with a cash flow positive & profitable quarter and beats of everything else. This way around they have announced need for money before proving they might not need it. On face value it is not the same deal. Whether it is close enough to the same deal or a different deal entirely, I seriously need to consider what the correct answer to that is. Not there yet.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?
Yes, yes and yes.
This would make a great signature for Dr Value Seeker's posts.Yes, yes and yes.
--Andrea James
I agree. We have been watching the construction of 1/7th of Gigafactory1 for two years! And we are still not finished. And now Tesla is going to ramp the other 6/7ths by the end of 2018, just 2 2/3 years from now. Perhaps Tesla and Panasonic have discovered a secret method for making batteries and battery packs that uses only one seventh the factory floor space.
Anyone else having trouble plotting out the model 3 ramp? If they produce 100k-200k model 3's in 2017, they likely have less than 5 months to hit that target (I would say 4 months since EM said volume production 'several months' after the July 1st deadline). On the low end, they have an average rate of 25k per month.
In 2018, if they produce 500k vehicles, 350k-400k would be 3's. On the high end at 400k model 3's, they would be running at a 33k/month volume. That would be 50% growth rate, but obviously the exit rate at the end of 2017 should be somewhat above the 25k average rate for 2017.
Being above that 25k average rate to end 2017, it does not seem like they will have much of the exponential growth occurring during 2018.
Overall point here is that it appears exponential ramp up will have to occur Q4 2017 for them to hit 100k. Am I missing something here or are you guys reaching a similar conclusion?
In 2018, if they produce 500k vehicles, 350k-400k would be 3's. On the high end at 400k model 3's, they would be running at a 33k/month volume. That would be 50% growth rate, but obviously the exit rate at the end of 2017 should be somewhat above the 25k average rate for 2017.
Being above that 25k average rate to end 2017, it does not seem like they will have much of the exponential growth occurring during 2018.
Overall point here is that it appears exponential ramp up will have to occur Q4 2017 for them to hit 100k. Am I missing something here or are you guys reaching a similar conclusion?
Krugerrand
Meow
Or, how about you just don't buy your iced coffee there (as a way of protest and to let the company know it's a bad product) and save us all the drama queen law suits?
Since EM indicated the max capacity of the Fremont factory I am going to assume my NDA from the tour I, and another (Jim) TMC member went on last May is 'off'.
So, we were told that the Fremont site could produce up to 900,000 vehicles per year. We were shocked......now, not so.
So, we were told that the Fremont site could produce up to 900,000 vehicles per year. We were shocked......now, not so.
Elon said only 17,000 cars to be delivered in Q2. Better than Q1, but still another losing quarter. However, 26,000 (Elon's preliminary guidance for Q3 and Q4) would be cash flow positive. The event we are all looking for might happen on November 3rd. Not expecting much between now and then. Still long on TSLA.
Actually, the 500,000 unit volume includes vehicles where the cells are made in Japan. Further, the size of the battery pack is smaller than expected, so the about 3/5ths the original size would be needed. But the factory is bigger than initially planned.
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