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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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You are engaging in mental gymnastics. If you want to consider the carry over from 2014Q4 to 2015Q1, then you need to consider the carry from 2015Q1 into Q2. These likely net out to a small number compared to 2100 orders.

Not really. Please remember the backlog in 2014 was exceptionally large due to port strikes. On the contrary, the delivery of model S went exceptionally smooth in 2015 with a lot of US customers ordering in December still getting their car in the same month and international orders timed to empty the pipeline (something Tesla had said they would not do anymore).
 
This is exactly what I meant. So the end result is Tesla expectation (guidance) > production = demand. That's the rootcause of continuous guidance miss in the past 2 years, which prevented SP soaring higher.

The root cause for guidance misses is it's hard to scale production while constantly improving the product, with quality maintained and while introducing new products being built in parallel on the same production line.

You're making a straw man argument here.

Elon's talk about the July 1st deadline as the hard deadline that must be met but won't be met gives us access to his thinking.

Demand is a prerequisite for growth but not a primary driver. Just like access to capital, raw materials, regulation, service centers, delivery specialists, factory workers, machines for production, software etc. etc. are prerequisites. The important question is has there ever been a point in time where lack of demand has been the limiting factor for continued growth? The answer is no and is still no. That is the main thing I need to know as an investor.
 
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If there are very few EU orders on the assembly line, they have negligible effect on the MX delivery lead time in US.

But it it relevant to the conclusion that Tesla is farther ahead in the ramp of the X and there are still not enough orders to dramatically fill the production line for the next few months.

We, of course, do not have an accurate picture of the shape of the ramp-up curve, but I would venture to say that TE can probably sell 2 to 3 GWh of storage in 2017. This could contribute $400M to $600M of FCF in 2017.

Ok, that's a useful benchmark for TE. Net margins of 50% on 2GWh of sales in 2017. I am not quite that confident but for me there is too little firm information to either refute or confirm this hypothesis at this point.
 
I own it no problem. But then it's also funny that I haven't heard any of the not-demand constraint theorists admit that the reduction in average waiting delivery time is evidence against their hypothesis nor why Tesla felt the need to throw away 2000EUR in gross margin on incentives during a large part of the last 12 months. The reality is simple, order rate it up, theoretical production capacity (for the S) is even more up.
Because they were having trouble rapping up Model X and have to stimulate Model S demand temporarily to compensate in order to meet guidance. If production was truly not an issue, with the stimulated demand especially in late Q3 and Q4 2015, they should still be able to produce equal or more than they delivered. But they couldn't as we've seen in Q4 2015. Now, are they still offering that much incentive or they just raised the price of Model S?
 
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I just shared this with my friend in Singapore and he told me import cars are subjected to a 250% import duty. Licence plate fee is another 60k SGD. So a base BMW 3 series would cost a consumer in Singapore nearly $150k USD. The Model 3 rebate is good but small compared to the import duty...

Tax Structure for Cars | Costs of Owning a Vehicle | Owning a Vehicle | Roads & Motoring | Land Transport Authority

If Golf Carts and Electric Motor Bikes are exempt from import duties, it seems likely all Electric Vehicles will ultimately be exempt.

According to this website, the only duties on Tesla vehicles being into Singapore are the 7% sales tax, and the 20% Excise tax.

HS tariff codes, import duty & taxes for Tesla electric car

It seems likely the strange $13,000-$15,0000 emissions tax will be changed soon.. I can't find anything about import duties for Electric Vehicles being imported into Singapore.
 
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Pulled out a quote from original article:

"Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan pointed out that even though electric cars do not produce tailpipe emissions, the process of generating the electricity used emits carbon: "The greenest form of transport is public transport. So do follow me - if you cannot be a 100 per cent public transport user, at least be a part-time public transport user."

He added that the Transport Ministry would also look at adopting electric vehicles for public transport, as it urges commuters to move towards a car-lite Singapore."

Rules will probably change over time to restrict privately owned real EVs too. Now taxi fleets maybe another story...
 
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Tax Structure for Cars | Costs of Owning a Vehicle | Owning a Vehicle | Roads & Motoring | Land Transport Authority

If Golf Carts and Electric Motor Bikes are exempt from import duties, it seems likely all Electric Vehicles will ultimately be exempt.

According to this website, the only duties on Tesla vehicles being into Singapore are the 7% sales tax, and the 20% Excise tax.

HS tariff codes, import duty & taxes for Tesla electric car

It seems likely the strange $13,000-$15,0000 emissions tax will be changed soon.. I can't find anything about import duties for Electric Vehicles being imported into Singapore.
I can't find it either. From their official website it seems that EVs are not subjected to any special tax, but it doesn't say it is exempted for the tiered registration fee either?
 
Your scenario listed is possible. With 14K Model S, it's the same number of Q4, still no growth in two sequential quarters. I'm afraid 6K model X is disappointing number consider what Tesla claimed 750/week rate in Q1 delivery report. But my hope is Tesla can beat the guidance with big (10+%) marin in July, otherwise model S demand growth is for sure a question.



It's my gut feeling and observations from EU delivery thread. Norway is a typical example, you can check the QoQ, Y/Y growth from 2014 till now Tesla Europe Registration Stats. With Model S delivery and guidance decline or no growth for at least two quarters, there is no proof that demand is growing. But overall Tesla delivery could still grow in 2nd half of 2016 due to full ramp up of model X.



I'm not sure what exactly 45% and 160% based on. It's not reflected as QoQ growth from delivery guidance at least, and we need to see the delivery number and financials through the sizzles.
I'm very very sorry, but when you pick the most extreme outlier and call it a typical example, my demand for your gut analysis suddenly falls off the carpet and drops through the floor. Figuratively speaking, that is. :cool:
 
Recent Bear Activity

Ok scouts, listen up.
We've seen a lot of bear activity in these parts lately, but no worries, it's going to taper off dramatically soon. Bear attacks are most common towards the end of their active periods. With black and brown bears, we call it hyperphasia prior to hibernation, but with Tesla bears we call it anxiety prior to the end of a downtrend. Use your compasses to stay on course and we'll be out of the woods soon, quite possibly beginning this week.
 
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I frequently type Tsla into google to see price in premarket and usually some articles pop up. This morning I noticed that it included this thread, JHM profile pic popped up with a link to page 800 of this thread. Anyone else notice this before or is this new? could mean more new posters
 
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I frequently type Tsla into google to see price in premarket and usually some articles pop up. This morning I noticed that it included this thread, JHM profile pic popped up with a link to page 800 of this thread. Anyone else notice this before or is this new? could mean more new posters

Personalized search results?

(I'm not getting this on my phone or my work computer)

Jim (@jhm) needs a new profile picture with some nicer curtains in the background. Seriously.
 
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First time loading a pic....

I was wondering if it was due to my frequent visits to this thread. Probably personalized if no one else has the same results.
 

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Go go last minute rally!

Edit: And I'm out at 208. I'm guessing there's some psychological resistance at 208 today. It was sitting on that number for a pretty long period of time earlier. Don't know if it'll get too much higher than that. Only made 35~ dollars today. Well, not too terrible considering how I just do this for fun. Kind of sucks gaining 50 and having to pay 13.90 in commission fees.

Edit2: Nevermind. I should just bet against my intuition every time from now on.
Use robin hood to trade, pay 0 commissions
 
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