Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Regarding the lawsuit mentioned in the article, it looks like the two people mentioned in the article actually did file a lawsuit in Massachusetts (Twice?), according to Justia.com. Case numbers (1:2016cv11010) and (1:2016cv11009).

According to the info in the links below, they are being represented by Julie M Tolek, "The Legally Blonde Lawyer", who operates "Think Pink Law", a law firm does not appear to get involved with these types of cases. Strange. Anyone have any idea what's going on here? Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer.

Home - Think Pink Law

First filing:
Gibbs et al v. SolarCity Corporation
Second Filing
Gibbs et al v. SolarCity Corporation

 

[Curt Renz]

Regarding the lawsuit mentioned in the article, it looks like the two people mentioned in the article actually did file a lawsuit in Massachusetts (Twice?), according to Justia.com. Case numbers ( 1:2016cv11010) and (1:2016cv11009).

According to the info in the links below, they are being represented by Julie M Tolek, "The Legally Blonde Lawyer", who operates "Think Pink Law", a law firm does not appear to get involved with these types of cases. Strange. Anyone have any idea what's going on here? Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer.

Home - Think Pink Law

Gibbs et al v. SolarCity Corporation
Gibbs et al v. SolarCity Corporation

There exists a SolarCity thread which I initiated among the investors forums over two years ago.

 

[Tenable]

With about $1.7B of stock just sold at about $218/share, one would expect $218 to be a strong support price. .

Was the raise done at $215 or $218? I'll try and look it up again, for some reason I thought the raise was initially thought to be targeted at $208 but pleasantly ended up at $215. If it was done at $218 this is (very nice) news to me.

 

[MitchJi]

From Thinkorswim Tesla news:

Sterne Agee CRT initiates coverage on Tesla Motors with a Buy rating and a $300 price target.

From Thinkorswim Tesla news:

Sterne Agee CRT initiates coverage on Tesla Motors with a Buy rating and a $300 price target.

Added: “We forecast revenue under $9 billion in 2016 but growing to $32 billion by 2019E.”

Edit to link Benzinga article: Sterne Agee CRT Starts Tesla At Buy With $300 Target; Sees $32 Billion In Revenue By 2019 - Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Added: “We forecast revenue under $9 billion in 2016 but growing to $32 billion by 2019E.”

I think that he counted TE as zero!

 

[Jayjs20]

Bouncy

 

[Papafox]

Was the raise done at $215 or $218? I'll try and look it up again, for some reason I thought the raise was initially thought to be targeted at $208 but pleasantly ended up at $215. If it was done at $218 this is (very nice) news to me.

I vaguely remember someone saying $218/share but looking over the news stories just now I see $215 as the amount, so you're probably right about the $215/share. Maybe the difference is what the buyers paid vs. what Telsa received per share.

 

[geneclean55]

It is just the beginning of analyst upgrades. It looks like walstreet now wants short squeeze, easy way to meet their annual performance goal in a few days. who better than TSLA in that regard?

My predictions:
1) Adam Jonas of MS will be next with $450+ target
2) GS will upgrade a notch up and revise target to $300+

And more...

Maybe wall street has been listening to the important parts of the shareholders meeting, and elon's recent talks. Perhaps they are waiting towards the end of this short week/ beginning of next full week to make some moves/upgrades. Fingers crossed.

 

[MitchJi]

On the Elon Code video Elon said that:
"I think we are basically less than two years away from complete autonomy, complete."Safer than a human."


And Regulatory approval will require billions, not millions of miles of validation data.

Quick quiz:
Who is getting (now, much more after the M3 ramp) one million miles of data every ten hours?

So who do we think is going to get regulatory approval first ?

 

[MitchJi]

Maybe wall street has been listening to the important parts of the shareholders meeting, and elon's recent talks. Perhaps they are waiting towards the end of this short week/ beginning of next full week to make some moves/upgrades. Fingers crossed.

I think there are two problems:
Most of the market is not smart enough to figure out what is happening.

And this point they don't believe Elon's prodictions.

I think it's going to take some actual results before we get much movement in the SP.

 

[Krugerrand]

In 5 years, my TSLA shorts will gain 95% (after paying 5% in borrowing costs for 5 years), while yours will be worth.. exactly what? Even if Tesla will hit AAPL market cap (LOL, that's another story I will need to revisit in couple of years), your upside is zero due to ongoing dilution to cover the red ink. It won't matter how much more money the professors at the Eccles building will print.

Your personal attack says more about you than it does me, so I have no need to address that portion of your text other than it confirms what I said earlier that you are not capable of conversing in a respectable, honest manner.

In terms of my investment and what it's worth. Let's just say I've long since been way ahead of where you think you're going to be in 5 years. And that's current reality vs your future aspirations. So, yeah, I'm good here. See you in 5 years.

 

[MikeC]

Your personal attack says more about you than it does me, so I have no need to address that portion of your text other than it confirms what I said early that you are not capable of conversing in a respectable, honest manner.

In terms of my investment and what it's worth. Let's just say I've long since been way ahead of where you think you're going to be in 5 years. And that's current reality vs your future aspirations. So, yeah, I'm good here. See you in 5 years.

I'll respond to your post instead of feeding the troll. Paying 5% to borrow a stock for 5 years means 5% per year, not 5% until you [are forced to] cover.

So these clever shorts are paying out every single day including weekends for a chance to make ~75% of their original bet, and risking an unlimited amount of money in doing so. Whereas longs are risking just their original bet for the chance for unlimited upside.

I'm no statistician but I know what side I'm more comfortable on.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think that he counted TE as zero!

 

[Krugerrand]

And Regulatory approval will require billions, not millions of miles of validation data.

Quick quiz:
Who is getting (now, much more after the M3 ramp) one million miles of data every ten hours?

So who do we think is going to get regulatory approval first ?

This is where I'm unsure of the outcome. It's taking quite an effort and a lot of time for Tesla to just sell their cars throughout all of the US with some states holding very firmly to the dealership model as the only model. And in that case Tesla has a lot of public support. But how is the public going to view autonomous cars? It's taken the public quite some time to wrap their brains around fully electric cars and still a large segment doesn't believe an EV is a viable mode of transportation. Will the public back autonomous cars and put enough pressure on regulators to make this the real deal? Can the regulators be pressured enough by Tesla themselves and all their autonomous data?

Adding: If I remember correctly, Elon said in the interview last night (or recently in some other talk) that some countries were going to be easier/faster to get regulatory approval for autonomous cars over others. That makes sense - but what a mess. Why do some of us have to be such cavemen?

 

[tander]

Tesla to deliver Model X to Chinese consumers ahead of schedule - Business - Chinadaily.com.cn

Also, does anyone remember did they say they were no longer planning for cashflow pos at all this year or just for the full year? If I remember right they originally were planning it for the year or for a quarter but then rescinded after Q1.

 

[tander]

This is where I'm unsure of the outcome. It's taking quite an effort and a lot of time for Tesla to just sell their cars throughout all of the US with some states holding very firmly to the dealership model as the only model. And in that case Tesla has a lot of public support. But how is the public going to view autonomous cars? It's taken the public quite some time to wrap their brains around fully electric cars and still a large segment doesn't believe an EV is a viable mode of transportation. Will the public back autonomous cars and put enough pressure on regulators to make this the real deal? Can the regulators be pressured enough by Tesla themselves and all their autonomous data?

If the data shows a reduction in accidents/fatalities then you probably have all the pressure needed. I think that's what they are talking about with needing billions of miles recorded. My understanding is that it has to be considered better than the average human driver; if it can do that it sets a new benchmark for safety ratings and convenience at the same time. Maybe even lower insurance rates too. So the public might be skeptical at first but if they prove it's safer and more convenience and cheaper to own and higher performance/practical that ought to sell itself just like the S. The other thing is that when you get down to the 35-40k price level, you start getting people buying it simply because it costs less to operate than their 3series or whatever.

 

[Krugerrand]

If the data shows a reduction in accidents/fatalities then you probably have all the pressure needed. I think that's what they are talking about with needing billions of miles recorded. My understanding is that it has to be considered better than the average human driver; if it can do that it sets a new benchmark for safety ratings and convenience at the same time. Maybe even lower insurance rates too. So the public might be skeptical at first but if they prove it's safer and more convenience and cheaper to own and higher performance/practical that ought to sell itself just like the S. The other thing is that when you get down to the 35-40k price level, you start getting people buying it simply because it costs less to operate than their 3series or whatever.

That's very logical and makes sense. Somehow, though, that doesn't give me any confidence that the regulatory bodies will move accordingly.

 

[CButterK]

That's very logical and makes sense. Somehow, though, that doesn't give me any confidence that the regulatory bodies will move accordingly.

Agreed. I suspect the NHTSA will operate in a similar fashion to the US FDA. Every country has their own version of these agencies, and our version tend to be more conservative than the rest of the world. A lot of US Medical related companies do clinical trials in other countries and seek approval of their products outside of US to gain market acceptance & real world data, prior to US release. So, it's very possible that Tesla may seek & obtain full autonomous approval outside of US 1st, while moving forward with US approval in parallel.

 

[geneclean55]

[/QUOTE]

I know Elon generally looks like he could do with some sleep, but there is something unflattering in an unfair way about that sketch.
His mother is a model after all!

 

[MitchJi]

This is where I'm unsure of the outcome. It's taking quite an effort and a lot of time for Tesla to just sell their cars throughout all of the US with some states holding very firmly to the dealership model as the only model. And in that case Tesla has a lot of public support. But how is the public going to view autonomous cars? It's taken the public quite some time to wrap their brains around fully electric cars and still a large segment doesn't believe an EV is a viable mode of transportation. Will the public back autonomous cars and put enough pressure on regulators to make this the real deal? Can the regulators be pressured enough by Tesla themselves and all their autonomous data?

My point was that no matter what happens Full Autonomy is different for every manufacturer and Tesla will have a huge advantage when it comes to the validation process.

 

[MitchJi]

Agreed. I suspect the NHTSA will operate in a similar fashion to the US FDA. Every country has their own version of these agencies, and our version tend to be more conservative than the rest of the world. A lot of US Medical related companies do clinical trials in other countries and seek approval of their products outside of US to gain market acceptance & real world data, prior to US release. So, it's very possible that Tesla may seek & obtain full autonomous approval outside of US 1st, while moving forward with US approval in parallel.

I would describe our process differently. I think our process is more corrupt than the rest of the world.