If my speculation is correct and China does consist of 7% of total Model 3 reservations. I'm not feeling confident that Tesla will partner with someone in China to build a factory there soon. But if they do and qualify for exemption of import duty and other barrieres, that would lower the cost to Chinese customers by 30% at least and may see a big boost in reservation. So hard to say at this point. But I'm leaning toward no "Tesla China factory" this year.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
I had an issue too for a minute.
You also have to be viewing the source of the "View Profile" page, NOT the "My Tesla" page itself. Or maybe this is if you have more than one car there...
MartinAustin
Active Member
I think it's a case of both. Baron obviously gave the stock huge exposure this morning and is responsible for the jump, but I think any decent investor doing investigations is going to find that the Model X is being delivered in huge numbers now, and they're probably delivering more X than S at this point. As we head to the end of Q2 this can only mean a great figure, and a decent chance at meeting the 2016 guidance. (which a few weeks ago I wasn't so sure about)
The delivery strength on X will lead the charge as we head toward the Gigafactory event.
TSLA continues to push hard... looks like it'll about to blast through $233.
I read your post on the China thread. That is great research! My own numbers(not China) seem to point to the accuracy of the code #s. However, if the China Reservation is only 7% of the total, that is a bit concerning. I think Tesla already announced that China had the 2nd highest reservation number after USA, which would indicate an abnormally high number for the US, which then could impact their delivery plans to "maximize" Fed credit. I've been tracking reservations on "model3tracker.info" which seem to represent about 1% sample size. But that number could be biased as well...
Yes I was thinking about the China having 2nd largest reservations. But this is more or less in line with their current Model S deliveries too. And we can't ignore the fed credit in the play here. My guess is US Model 3 reservation is more than 55% of the total (which is about the % of US deliveries of Model S).
Anyway, Tesla management has the accurate number and geographic distribution. And even if we had 300k reservations, it still exceeded their initial estimate by far. So I'm not too worried. Just lowering my expectation of hearing material news of Tesla China factory.
As a consistent long I try to invest based on what objective evidence there is about the company. Usually I followed Motley Fool which made some good calls, Bidu at $86 just before it had a 10-1 split. Tesla I bought in 2010 and later, before Motley Fool found it based on the 300 mile range of the roadster battery and subsequent other evidence. I also felt, hoped, he was this century's Henry Ford which wiser heads have even documented.
When it got to $205 for the first time I tried price arbitrage over time with some in a Roth IRA and promptly lost the equivalent of about 7 shares at the $250 level. Not a real big loss, but useful information I'm not smart enough to be a trader. After that experience I never went long until April fourth this year when I had enough stash to buy a measly 12 shares at just under $250. My wife and wealth manager had a fit because we have other priorities and he is aghast at the staggering 34% of our portfolio in the company. My revenge is that is going to be a continuing problem, oh dear, over the years, especially with the Ron Baron interview who obviously has talent and visits the factory more frequently than analysts. As someone said already IMHO that is why TSLA is up 5.58% when I last looked.
Unfortunately, I have no more dry powder
Remember, N of 1. Probably off topic, but $250 is my benchmark as a long. For you smart guys to verify, is TSLA finally reaching fair value?
Last edited:
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Unfortunately, I have no more dry powder
That's my problem. Otherwise I'd have been buying ever since late January.
What I love about the Ron Baron interview is that he talks like a TMC Investor thread bull, but because he's a successful billionaire investor, he speaks with conviction. It's as if he is a regular here and understands about the 3X increase in gigafactory output, mega-increase in Fremont factory capabilities, and potential for TE. Didn't you hear the voice of some of our members in his talk? I did. When he says the same things that you or I say, people listen (but instead of earning "likes" his portfolio jumps more than $30 million in a few hours). Nonetheless, he's one of us in his understanding of Tesla.
Of course his talk is the catalyst for today's run up in TSLA, but it has been preceded by important developments which paved the way for the jump. For example, over at the Daily TSLA trading charts thread we discussed how yesterday's inabilities to scare investors with an opening trading dip and the inability of shorts to contain TSLA below 220 signaled that the shorts were losing their ability to game the stock price in the present situation. Yesterday was actually a pretty big defeat for the shorts, but it's not apparent to most people. Such a defeat on Monday paved the way for not only longs to jump aboard today with a true breakout but also gave shorts inspiration for jumping ship.
Of course his talk is the catalyst for today's run up in TSLA, but it has been preceded by important developments which paved the way for the jump. For example, over at the Daily TSLA trading charts thread we discussed how yesterday's inabilities to scare investors with an opening trading dip and the inability of shorts to contain TSLA below 220 signaled that the shorts were losing their ability to game the stock price in the present situation. Yesterday was actually a pretty big defeat for the shorts, but it's not apparent to most people. Such a defeat on Monday paved the way for not only longs to jump aboard today with a true breakout but also gave shorts inspiration for jumping ship.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
It sounds like you are confusing the conference call, when JB said that they have enough land to double the size of the plant, with the SH Meeting Call when Elon said that they can increase the capacity of the plant, at a given size by 2-3x.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agreed. I listened to his interview and thought to myself "this guy drank the kool-aid". Maybe he's got a guy here on TMC? He gets it. I like how when he was challenged with perhaps being a "blind bull" he said "I'm not engaged to be married" and later that if he didn't see the constant progress he's looking for in the company, and during factory visits, he won't hesitate to sell.
jesselivenomore
Member
I think the biggest catalyst the past few weeks was just getting the cap raise over and done with. The uncertainty of the timing and sizing of the raise was clearly pressuring SP. I mentioned this with Dave a few times. I was obviously wrong about the initial decline preceding the raise(DTU guys were spot on), but the positive reaction to the actual raise itself was quite predictable(still in the process of playing out).
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
This sounds about right. I re-listened to that portion of the shareholders meeting. And Elon said within the same form factor (pointing to the original plan of the GF in computer rendered picture), they could theoretically increase production capacity to 3 times
If he were posting here I'm sure the troll from the future would be able to set him straight. ;-)
Mr. Baron is so gifted, he knew from his Tesla factory visits that Model X quality was going to be superb. He missed the lobby though. Mr. Trip Choudhary handily beats him in inspecting the factory facilities. Mr. Baron is so astute, he figures out capital efficiency with mere glances at the factory floor, a thing that Mr. Musk and his overpaid execs couldn't do in years. He should open his own factories and make trillions.
The only way Mr. Baron wins with his TSLA investments is luring bigger fools into buying this overpriced stock.
The only way Mr. Baron wins with his TSLA investments is luring bigger fools into buying this overpriced stock.
The funny thing about the price action today is that Baron's $300Mish bet and strong forecast for Tesla is not really news. For example in November 2015 it was reported that he had a $282M investment in Tesla and was forecasting a $900 share price by 2020. (Ron Baron Says Tesla Will Hit $900/share By 2020).
This reinforces @Papafox's thesis that the share price was poised for a move up. The Baron interview and his strong and articulate explanation of why Tesla has a bright future was just a convenient excuse for the stock to pop.
This reinforces @Papafox's thesis that the share price was poised for a move up. The Baron interview and his strong and articulate explanation of why Tesla has a bright future was just a convenient excuse for the stock to pop.
No, no more than no VINs in a week means no production that week. Tesla assigns VINs in batches often
I'm sure the guy with the 9 figure investment in TSLA doesn't get to ask any questions on the factory tours he takes (lumped in with the random tour takers, of course). Yep, he just rolls on by in the tram a couple times and decides to drop $300 million on the stock without talking to anyone.
How's that short treating you today?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
