doggusfluffy
Closed
Has anyone got a theory explaining the SolarCity volume today? Approaching 9m volume and down $.32 or so.
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And before adjustments for something wonky happening - my friend who I was in line with, who I put my order down mere seconds after (at different terminals in the store), has a number 110k lower than mine (though my two orders are just 2 numbers apart). I'm an owner, he's not. So, the data probably isn't perfectly correct, or if it is, something weird happened with mine
As has been explained maybe a dozen times in the thread, those who reserved multiple cars started with a number around 500000. Those who ordered one started around 350,000.And before adjustments for something wonky happening - my friend who I was in line with, who I put my order down mere seconds after (at different terminals in the store), has a number 110k lower than mine (though my two orders are just 2 numbers apart). I'm an owner, he's not. So, the data probably isn't perfectly correct, or if it is, something weird happened with mine
Nobody responded to mine with that, and I certainly didn't read all 20 pages. Anyway, mine's in the 44xxxx region, so the multiple car orders seem to have started much lower than 500k-ish.
Agreed. Looks like we can drill down further to deduce that the samsung cells are specific to powerwall, within TE...
The Only Explanation for Tesla's New Supply Agreement With Samsung
Wow. BMW I3 with range extender. Well played LAPD. Couple of problems/considerations.
1. No more cops can pick up dates on duty cause their driving that fugly car.
2. If in range extender mode, better hope perp is fleeing on a Segway or with a walker due to speed limitations.
3. Unlikely to have great service or parts due to rapid discontinuation of the brand due to no demand.
Sure they got a swinging deal from BMW though. "Here are the keys...please take these off our hands. Well throw in some free chargers.
BMW wins LAPD electric car contract, beating Tesla
1. No more cops can pick up dates on duty cause their driving that fugly car.
2. If in range extender mode, better hope perp is fleeing on a Segway or with a walker due to speed limitations.
3. Unlikely to have great service or parts due to rapid discontinuation of the brand due to no demand.
Sure they got a swinging deal from BMW though. "Here are the keys...please take these off our hands. Well throw in some free chargers.
BMW wins LAPD electric car contract, beating Tesla
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
No you can't. And that article contains multiple inaccuracies. For example:
That doesn't match what Elon and JB said at the shareholders meeting. Current plan is to produce a lot more than 15 GWh (cells and packs) for TE at the GF.
I think the only thing that is confirmed is that they won't be used for Model 3. It is still possible they could be used for Roadster and S and X. Eventually I suspect S and X also will use the new format that 3 will be using.
TE feels the most likely to me. We know that TE requires a different cell type and we know the demand seems to be there already, and we also know that GF is not ready to produce in volume yet.
3Victoria
Active Member
Elon said Not for S3X:
Elon Musk @elonmusk 17h17 hours ago
S and X cells are also Panasonic
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321 retweets1,548 likes
Elon Musk @elonmusk 17h17 hours ago
Would like to clarify that Tesla is working exclusively with Panasonic for Model 3 cells. News articles claiming otherwise are incorrect.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Elon tweeted that they will use them for TE.
They signed a contract with LG Chem to provide packs for the roadster, but JB said "we" are producing roadster packs.
I'm aware of the 3X capacity statement. However, 35/50 vs 105/150 cell/packs at 3X(they did not specify which is 3X), it still seems they run short of required cells vs Packs capacity. So why wouldn't they buy cheap cells from Samsung for TE Powerwall, if the cells that they can make at the GF are yielding much denser and higher capacity cells than what Samsung has at the lower price point? I know your hang up is the <$100 cost once GF starts churning out cells/packs, and I fundamentally agree with your views. That said, is it possible they will be so focused on ramping up production of 20700 cells for TM in the foreseeable future(and Powerpacks), that they don't want to produce downgraded cells at the GF at less margin for the powerwalls?
stealthology
Member
Can someone recap near term catalysts?
- Production hitting 2,000/week by end of month
- Gigafactory Grand Opening? meh.
- Model 3 event sometime later this year? Hm.
- Production hitting 2,000/week by end of month
- Gigafactory Grand Opening? meh.
- Model 3 event sometime later this year? Hm.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
LG Chem provides THE CELLS that go INTO the roadster pack that tesla assembles... Right?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'll also add a few that aren't official but could very well happen in the next few months:
- Announcement of 100 packs
- Announcement of next gen AP hardware/features
- Release of Model Y (wildcard)
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense to reveal the Y before the "Part 2" of Model 3. They could be announced together, but it seems like Elon likes to keep car announcements separate from other material news. In terms of ordering, it would make sense to reveal Model 3, reveal Model Y, then finally do the "Part 2" where they talk about the tech/other stuff available in the cars. Finally, I could see the appeal in doing 3 total reveals for this generation.
This is of course 100% speculation. Tesla has been incredibly quiet about the Model Y lately, yet I have to think they will want to have it for sale sooner rather than later given the enormity of the small SUV market. I can't see them delaying it well beyond the sedan like they did with S/X.
Tesla has guided to 17,000 deliveries and 20,000 production. I think Tesla is poised to beat both numbers based on all the anecdotal evidence of significant uptick in deliveries.
Any guess on actual numbers?
Are you feeling as chipper and optimistic about a probable beat as I am on this? Really sounds like production is close to 1k/wk already.
Do you think we go past 17k? If so we should see some upward movement after July 3.
I wonder how many would need to be sold for non GAAP profit or cash flow positive. Anyone do the math yet?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
That's the real question. If they can come close to FCF positive, then that'll move the stock in a big way.
One thing to be aware of - the SEC has recently provided guidance indicating that non-GAAP measures are going to be scrutinized more heavily and that GAAP metrics will need to be featured more prominently in earnings releases. It's an open question as to how companies will respond (remove mentions of non-GAAP measures? Do nothing? Feature GAAP measures in the headlines and still mention non-GAAP stuff, just less prominently? Probably the latter).
There was a view out there (market in general, not TSLA) that non-GAAP reporting has gotten out of control and the SEC wants to reign it in. I wonder if TSLA will be forced to abandon (or minimize) its new CF from operations metric? Either way, this will be an interesting earnings season as companies try to figure out how to report and investors figure out how to adjust to new styles.
215XX produced, 183XX delivered.
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