Tesla delivered less than 30k for the 1st half, the tone now is around 50k for 2nd half. I think TM will lower full year guidance to 75k at least in Q2 ER
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Tesla delivered less than 30k for the 1st half, the tone now is around 50k for 2nd half. I think TM will lower full year guidance to 75k at least in Q2 ER
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
.It's reasonable from Tesla. This is part of discount practice to boost sales.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
flankspeed8
Member
Just checked...all the Chicago area inventory cars are still old fascia...So this indicates plenty of old inventory still in the pipeline.
edit: It doesn't look like there are ANY facelift Model S in the inventory pipeline.
I am highly skeptical they are able to squeeze $9k worth of production efficiencies out of the ramp over the next two quarters. Remember that the model S production process is already quite mature and that they produced just as much S's in the last quarter of 2015 already as they are (roughly) planning to produce over the next quarters. Yet even then margins were a challenge.
Looks like another ride down to the low to mid 100s is probably in store. Hope they can pull something together by Q3. Only hope to mitigate a huge drop is that shorts are already fully in, so only goes down by longs selling. There will probably be enough of those to see some movement downwards...
The Tesla share price is mainly based on the prospects for the Model 3 and secondarily for the energy business. In that regard, current news related to Models S or X is essentially just noise.
why would a 15% delivery miss make the share price drop 50%? i don't see how that would be possible
That's correct. Model S sales see sequential decline in last three quarters. There is no other explanation better than model S demand issue. Not only model S but the model X demand issue will pop up as backlog running thin in Q3. It's inevitable for Tesla to lower full year guidance by 5-10K in coming months.
I wouldn't call them inventory. Loaner/demo/display is the right term.
S refresh happened in Q2 and almost none of the locations had X in Q1. All the locations needed both S and X. That explains why a large number of cars, 1440 of them ended up as loaner/demo/display. I expect much less number of cars made in Q3 end up in that pool.
One very encouraging signal is the current US delivery estimates for both S and X is September. By the time we get to earnings call, Q3 order book would have been completely covered. I expect Q3 delivery guidance of around 26K.
Tesla has been dealing with some 'interesting' news over the past few weeks. Negative price action was mitigated somewhat on the hopes of a good q2 delivery report, and also a general market rally last week.
If market figures out tesla growth is constrained by demand now. The story needs to be rewritten until model 3 onboard. That part could be single biggest hit. Other than that, worse financial data due to bad sales and what if SCTY merger go through?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
From what I know of the Tesla Factory in Fremont, California, there are 2 production lines.
"Production Line 1" is the original Model S production line, and exclusively produced Model S. It is my understanding that this line was to be shut down and revamped for Model 3 production.
"Production Line 2" is the newer line, which is supposed to be able to concurrently produce both Model S and Model X at about 2,000 units/week.
My question is: when did Tesla move Model S production from Line 1 to Line 2? Transitioning Model S from an established, stable production line to a new production line could easily have disrupted production numbers.
Model X shortages in Q1 were due to parts shortages and quality problems from suppliers. Just because those were resolved doesn't mean there weren't issues getting concurrent production of Model S and Model X on the same line. The S and X have only 30% parts commonality.
Speak for yourself. I haven't sugarcoated the numbers (if you look back I actually called the current report as a "face plant", i.e. fall down).
The unfortunate fact of the matter is that Tesla doesn't play the quarterly numbers game like other companies. Anyone looking for BIG MONEY FAST is likely going to lose money trading this stock. Retail investors gambling on options are mostly going to get absolutely destroyed.
I would modify that as good production report as Tesla is production constrained. I am surprised why so many of us ignore 5150 of them in transit.
I exited a large number of calls (for me anyways) on Friday. I don't think i will be playing those options on TSLA for a long time
Production around 2,000 week and improving. Model X delivery is now late September. S is September. We are at the beginning of July. Your demand arguments don't hold water, as usual.
Here's the thing. At most, 20% of Tesla vehicles produced in Q3 and Q4 are Model S 60s, but all the Model S and Model X vehicles benefit from substantially higher delivery numbers in Q3. Take 20% of $9,000 and you get $1800/vehicle average hit in revenue because some Model S 60 vehicles are sold. You then Take labor, depreciation, and a ton of other costs and divide them by 24,xxx vehicles, rather than 14,xxx vehicles. Net result: gross margins go up.
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