Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[geneclean55]

CNBC reporting is more optimistic. Definitely someone at Bloomberg is short Tesla.

Tesla cranks out 20% more cars in Q2, but struggles to deliver them

Should Tesla start guiding the production rate in the future if they don't have an handle on the deliveries yet. They have to improve their ways to deliver cars to customers quickly.

I am also surprised that Model S deliveries were less. Model S is the shining star for the company.

Although if you read the article, they incorrectly suggest that MX deliveries in q2 were down on MX deliveries in q1.

Sigh

 

[FredTMC]

CNBC reporting is more optimistic. Definitely someone at Bloomberg is short Tesla.

Tesla cranks out 20% more cars in Q2, but struggles to deliver them

Should Tesla start guiding the production rate in the future if they don't have an handle on the deliveries yet. They have to improve their ways to deliver cars to customers quickly.

I am also surprised that Model S deliveries were less. Model S is the shining star for the company.

MX and MS share the same Final human-based assembly line. If MXs are slowing the line it effects MS production too.

 

[schonelucht]

Model X backlog is barely bigger than model S backlog so I am certainly not as optimistic as Tesla management. Model S deliveries declined to a level last seen in the fourth quarter of 2014. It's quite clear that demand on the S stalled big time and that the 60kWh model was an emergency measure to pump demand up. My prediction is a big nose dive on the margins too. Not just in Q2 but also Q3 and Q4 since the 60 is going to need to take up a much bigger share of the sales then we anticipated. Sorry, but I will sell all my positions in Tesla and only buy in again after a huge adjustment.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

okay, the silver lining I can see is that Q2 production is ~50% more yoy, but deliveries isn't quite near that. I expect to hear in Q2 earnings Elon say that the model S refresh took longer to transition than expected (or something similiar). Although the April backseat recall (and follow-up waiting for replacement parts) affected Q2 deliveries, the Q1 earnings (and Q2 guidance) was in May. They should've factored that into their earnings projections. Otherwise, how are we expected to hold out hope that Q3 and Q4 will meet 51k deliveries?

 

[MitchJi]

Knowing this was a miss, someone please explain SCTY offer? I can't

I already did that:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I guess if you believe that Elon should run TSLA based on ST options it doesn't make sense, but beyond that possibility I don't understand why you think this quarters production numbers have anything to do with the SCTY Offer.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm happy with the production numbers. 2k/week is great! So at least that should not be the bottleneck in the future.

Now we know there are other bottlenecks that will need to be addressed. Logistics, delivery, etc...

 

[schonelucht]

I agree, there had to be a way for us to know about this huge miss!

We have three more months to find out how to predict the results of this quarter more precise..

We should trust the European delivery numbers more. It's the only solid information that we had that was consistently under performing during the quarter. You can find my questions about why they were not improving all over the relevant thread. Unfortunately my own bias wanting to see something positive prevented me from drawing the right conclusion.

 

[TSLADream]

I think mathematically 50K deliveries for rest of the year will be challenging as they have only delivered 30K cars for now. Ramping up production and delivery at the same time is not going to be easy.

 

[electracity]

Model X backlog is barely bigger than model S backlog so I am certainly not as optimistic as Tesla management. Model S deliveries declined to a level last seen in the fourth quarter of 2014. It's quite clear that demand on the S stalled big time and that the 60kWh model was an emergency measure to pump demand up. My prediction is a big nose dive on the margins too. Not just in Q2 but also Q3 and Q4 since the 60 is going to need to take up a much bigger share of the sales then we anticipated. Sorry, but I will sell all my positions in Tesla and only buy in again after a huge adjustment.

I agree with your assessment, but you are selling on bad short/medium term news.

I think mathematically 50K deliveries for rest of the year will be challenging as they have only delivered 30K cars for now. Ramping up production and delivery at the same time is not going to be easy.

The most likely explanation is lack of model S demand growth. This suggests once the Model X initial demand is met, Tesla has a big problem unless they have demand stimulators for these vehicles (next gen autopilot).

 

[ggies07]

I was scrolling through my flipboard app and came to this and laughed out loud. Love the image they put with the headline.....cheeky monkeys.

 

[TSLADream]

I agree with your assessment, but you are selling on bad short/medium term news.

Yes. Trading Tesla is a difficult strategy but I think we should hedge by loading up some puts on Tuesday. We never know what surprises Elon may have to offer in the next few weeks.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Model X backlog is barely bigger than model S backlog so I am certainly not as optimistic as Tesla management.

Where are you getting this from?

 

[geneclean55]

Yes. Trading Tesla is a difficult strategy but I think we should hedge by loading up some puts on Tuesday. We never know what surprises Elon may have to offer in the next few weeks.

Loading up on puts might be a good strategy but if Elon has any more surprises in store for the next few weeks, i hope to God they are positive ones!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Model X backlog is barely bigger than model S backlog so I am certainly not as optimistic as Tesla management. Model S deliveries declined to a level last seen in the fourth quarter of 2014. It's quite clear that demand on the S stalled big time and that the 60kWh model was an emergency measure to pump demand up. My prediction is a big nose dive on the margins too. Not just in Q2 but also Q3 and Q4 since the 60 is going to need to take up a much bigger share of the sales then we anticipated.

I don't think this conclusion is clear.

First, we don't know if demand actually stalled. The severe problems with building Model X would have had cascading effects into Model S production early in the quarter.

If demand for Model S actually did stall, we don't know if that is because people opted for a Model X instead. We don't know if uncertainty over whether people would want to wait for the nosecone refresh had any effect on orders.

Sorry, but I will sell all my positions in Tesla and only buy in again after a huge adjustment.

This may lead to selling low and buying high.

I stand by the Warren Buffet strategy of being greedy when others are fearful, and being fearful when others are greedy. TSLA has been taking a beating recently over uncertainty.

 

[schonelucht]

Where are you getting this from?

Estimated wait times.

 

[schonelucht]

The severe problems with building Model X would have had cascading effects into Model S production early in the quarter.

The problems were even more severe last quarter and the quarter before that, yet they still managed to produce and deliver a lot more S's. The simple explanation is the most likely.

I stand by the Warren Buffet strategy of being greedy when others are fearful, and being fearful when others are greedy. TSLA has been taking a beating recently over uncertainty.

I think we've been very greedy this quarter on this board with our assumptions and hope. How I see anyone here trying to sugarcoat the numbers, is as a continuation of that ill-founded greed.

 

[TSLADream]

We should trust the European delivery numbers more. It's the only solid information that we had that was consistently under performing during the quarter. You can find my questions about why they were not improving all over the relevant thread. Unfortunately my own bias wanting to see something positive prevented me from drawing the right conclusion.

Couple of questions:
a. Do you know where to look for the European delivery numbers?
b. Do we know how many cars Tesla produced in Q1 2016? (This should help us understand the production growth rates)

 

[X Yes?]

Tesla will loose institutional support if they don't learn how to manage guidance. Successful companies try to downplay expectations and them beat them with the actual numbers. Again we hear that the dog has eaten the homework. The excuse that 5100 cars are in transit was used when they missed last quarter. Didn't they project cars in transit? 80,000 cars delivered at end of year becomes hard to justify.
Production increases will not solve this either. Model X remains slow and Model S refresh did not stimulate demand. The faithful will put up with this but institutions like Fidelity will be asking some hard questions. Next up the quarterly numbers, anyone expecting an earnings beat? There will be a great entry point in this stock in the months ahead.

 

[schonelucht]

Couple of questions:
a. Do you know where to look for the European delivery numbers?
b. Do we know how many cars Tesla produced in Q1 2016? (This should help us understand the production growth rates)

a. Follow EU Market Situation and Outlook and Tesla Europe Registration Stats
b. It's in the shareholder letter : 15.5k (12.8k S/2.7k X)

 

[MitchJi]

Wow! Check this out:
Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Car Sales Collapse - ValueWalk

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Car Sales Collapse
By Jacob Wolinsky on July 3, 2016 4:10 pm in Technology

Talk about a Friday night dump is all I can say – Elon Musk just released the following minor announcement about Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) – you can guess the news is going to be great, right? Also, do recall this is the same company which wants to bid for SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ:SCTY) so the balance sheet must be in pristine condition or they would not be attempting a buyout – that would just be plain crazy – enough sarcasm for now.

Anyway, below are some of the highlights followed by the full statement – of course nothing to see here because if the company is releasing sales figures on the Sunday of July 4th weekend when no one they cannot be trying to hide anything of course.

sales tumbled from 14,810 to just 14,370 (down 3% QoQ) – drastically missing expectations of 17,000 sold and the first QoQ drop in Tesla’s history…

• *TESLA DELIVERED 14,370 VEHICLES IN 2Q 2016 VS 17,000 FORECAST

Sounds like a post from this thread about the SCTY Acquisition by someone who lost money on their ST calls.