Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[EinSV]

IMHO, the important figure is production. Whether Tesla delivers 14k in Q2 and 22k in Q3, or 16k in Q2 and 20k in Q3 is completely irrelevant.

I like seeing that production is ramping up in accordance with guidance. And I haven't had much hope that Q2 would be amazing. Q3 is where Tesla really needs to kick ass.

To add to this point, Q2 production was up 18.2 percent over Q1 (18345 v 15510).

That is a 95% annual rate of increase, compounded quarter by quarter. Not bad for an "off" quarter.

I understand meeting guidance is important to the market, but a little perspective seems in order.

 

[sundaymorning]

The mood here has been very cynical. What I'm failing to grasp is how people miss the fact that while it was a lousy Q2, June was pretty impressive. If June is now at a 2000 per week clip, then, what does that bode for July and onward? If you are long TSLA, now is not the time to bail, it looks to me the runway is clear for take off from here on out. This time feels different than the prior Q1 " exponential ramp" business.

With 5,000 units in transit, how can people argue there is a demand constraint still? It sucks that they missed delivery numbers and the horde will see this as a red flag and run for the hills. That is the fear that always makes you lose your shirt. Hang tight longs!

Short term traders want instant gratification. If not, then is demand his demand that.

 

[sundaymorning]

European trading shows $212.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Actually, what I like about this quarter is that it really sets the stage for a killer Q3. You could have something like 28k deliveries in Q3 (2000/wk x 13wk + 2000 from Q2), making Tesla free cash flow positive and really upsetting the shorts.

I don't usually buy before end-of-quarter, but I will certainly consider it in Q3.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla opened in Europe at $212
About 30 minutes later, it stands at $214.xx.

 

[sdtslafan]

Hmmmm, I've been very critical of TSLA for the past several weeks. I would have expected the stock to drop after earnings, in a way validating my concerns. But TSLA on the Frankfurt stock exchange shows TSLA UP by 0.73%. I think its shows the tremendous strength of Elon's vision and leadership. This is something unique to TSLA. No other company would react like this, perhaps because no other company has a visionary leader like Elon. Perhaps this is a lesson for me to focus on the big picture rather than minor details that will be irrelevant within 90 days. Happy to be wrong and appreciate the input from more seasoned investors like Curt and Papafox.

 

[Papafox]

Yup,,, That is the risk.

If there is two more fatal incidence this year, than Tesla Auto Pilot is no more.

It doesn't matter if the driver is distracted, asleep or drunk. Three fatal accidents using AP that would have been avoided by a attentive driver would make AP a hundred times more dangerous than driving a car recalled by GM due to the Ignition Switch.

Postpast, once again you speak nonsense. So far, autopilot has had zero fatal accidents that involved an attentive driver.

Autopilot is not autonomous driving. It is a driver assist feature and the driver is required to remain hands-on and in charge of the outcome of the drive. Autopilot does not respond to stoplights. It's not yet programmed in. Same with detecting white semi-trucks, broadside to the highway with a bright glaring background present and the Tesla heading for the clear area between the front and rear wheels of the trailer. If a driver falls asleep and runs a stoplight on a highway will the regulators blame the autopilot? No, of course not. If you read the statement about the governing body that is taking a look at this accident, you would see that they are tasked with determining if the autopilot performed as it is designed to perform. Until full autonomous driving is offered, Tesla cannot be held responsible for the actions of distracted, sleeping, or intoxicated drivers. Thus, your three strikes and you're out statement is baseless.

 

[neroden]

This is interesting and another piece of unwelcome news. Remember though that they sold off a lot of the inventory fleet in the previous few months to try to make up delivery numbers in Q4 and Q1,

I doubt that that is why they sold it off. I think they were getting rid of pre-refresh Model S in the showrooms. I am pretty sure they were deliberately replacing the formerly "top end" loaner fleet with CPOs so as to lose less on depreciation.

So they ended up using CPO cars as inventory. They therefore needed to replenish the inventory and loaners again now with newer models. One other thing: they needed to send Model X display vehicles to all stores, along with refreshed Model S display vehicles. This would have been a non-negligible number of vehicles.

486 just to get one S and one X in each existing store & gallery. They'd probably want more than one at many of the locations.

However, looking at Inventory/CPO consolidator, there seems to have been a deliberate production of inventory cars at some point. For example, VIN 137700 through 137739. Also 136448-136534. Before that, they're sporadic, have a lot of miles on them for an inventory car, and were probably showroom or testing models before being listed. But then there are some long continuous runs of VINs with very low mileage. I think the backlog ran out and Tesla actually produced inventory cars for a short period. Not sure when that was (if we matched up those VIN numbers with production dates we might figure it out).

 

[W84M3]

Hmmmm, I've been very critical of TSLA for the past several weeks. I would have expected the stock to drop after earnings, in a way validating my concerns. But TSLA on the Frankfurt stock exchange shows TSLA UP by 0.73%. I think its shows the tremendous strength of Elon's vision and leadership. This is something unique to TSLA. No other company would react like this, perhaps because no other company has a visionary leader like Elon. Perhaps this is a lesson for me to focus on the big picture rather than minor details that will be irrelevant within 90 days. Happy to be wrong and appreciate the input from more seasoned investors like Curt and Papafox.

1) It adjusts to closing price of Friday and has very low liquidity.
2) It's currently at 191,9 EUR which would mean 213,5 USD (and not 216,5) so it does drop.

 

[neroden]

It looks like this is the original source dated August 2015:
3 Questions for Tesla Motors, Inc. CEO Elon Musk -- The Motley Fool
But the quote I used was correct (they did add the "i.e. 2016" for clarity):

One more indication that the TE ramp is imminent.

Musk is always late, because he never includes time for unexpected causes of delay. Expect the big TE ramp in 2 quarters.

(I'm a long-termer, so this is fine as far as I am concerned.)

It's actually possible that they've hit the point on "Powerwall 2.0" design where details of intergration with solar panels matter, which may have been the driving force behind the SCTY offer. Remember Musk is an engineer first.

 

[sdtslafan]

1) It adjusts to closing price of Friday and has very low liquidity.
2) It's currently at 191,9 EUR which would mean 213,5 USD (and not 216,5) so it does drop.

Thanks for your post. You've made a valid point that volume is low. But wouldn't you expect volume would be high and in the opposite direction (even early in premarket) if people were trying to bail on this stock after an earnings miss? Could there be something else at play? Any chance the shorts (and people like me who sold) are miscalculating? I would begin to feel very nervous if I was short and the stock doesn't drop after this delivery report and I'm paying 5% to stay short, but I'm a nervous guy.

 

[MitchJi]

I would not look for TE to save Q2 ER. Elon has said that TE won't be a significant source of revenue until the end of the year. My personal feeling is that the SP is more likely to drop Tues/Wed than hold or rise. I would not be surprised if we end, up below 200 in the next week or two. Gigafactory opening may boost it 5-10%, but then the Q2 ER is going to hurt the stock for the month of August. I think below 200 in August is likely. I hope I'm wrong.

When did he say that? Link please?

 

[Papafox]

Hmmmm, I've been very critical of TSLA for the past several weeks. I would have expected the stock to drop after earnings, in a way validating my concerns. But TSLA on the Frankfurt stock exchange shows TSLA UP by 0.73%. I think its shows the tremendous strength of Elon's vision and leadership. This is something unique to TSLA. No other company would react like this, perhaps because no other company has a visionary leader like Elon. Perhaps this is a lesson for me to focus on the big picture rather than minor details that will be irrelevant within 90 days. Happy to be wrong and appreciate the input from more seasoned investors like Curt and Papafox.

I wouldn't have expected TSLA to be up today on the Frankfurt exchange, and if the NASDAQ follows this lead on Tuesday I will be as amazed and pleased as anyone. Curt is indeed a knowledgeable investor and I have been learning about technical trading from his excellent book. I, on the other hand, am not such a seasoned investor and what you read by me in this thread or the daily trading chart thread is mostly my personal opinions from a few years trading TSLA and not the culmination of a career studying the market.

 

[TSLADream]

Tesla opened in Europe at $212
About 30 minutes later, it stands at $214.xx.

Pardon my ignorance, How do I check the european trading price for TSLA?

 

[Electrifying]

I am a bit gun shy as I have been so wrong before many times. But the 24 million shares traded on June 22 gap down from $220 area has the hallmark of an exhaustion gap on a downtrend (aka capitulation day). TSLA could close above it as soon as tomorrow.

 

[Electrifying]

Pardon my ignorance, How do I check the european trading price for TSLA?

TESLA MOTORS INC. DL-,001: FRA:TL0 quotes & news - Google Finance

 

[TSLADream]

Tesla delivered less than 30k for the 1st half, the tone now is around 50k for 2nd half. I think TM will lower full year guidance to 75k at least in Q2 ER

It's hard to predict what'll happen. For long term investors, this may present a good buying opportunity and an attractive entry point.

 

[TSLADream]

TESLA MOTORS INC. DL-,001: FRA:TL0 quotes & news - Google Finance

Great. It's trading up now. Is there anyway to see the volume traded as well? The good news is that the report came in a lot earlier so the smart money would have decided whether to sell or hold on Tuesday.

 

[sundaymorning]

Euro trading link below. Try not to get a heart attack when you see 191.xx, just convert it to US dollars and it'll be around $212-213.

TL0:Xetra Stock Quote - Tesla Motors Inc

I am a bit gun shy as I have been so wrong before many times. But the 24 million shares traded on June 22 gap down from $220 area has the hallmark of an exhaustion gap on a downtrend (aka capitulation day). TSLA could close above it as soon as tomorrow.

I think markets are closed tomorrow. There's no doubt the stock will drop, how long it'll stay lower is anyone's guess.

 

[Fast Laner]

All the german Trading Places:
TESLA MOTORS INC. DL-,001 aktuell | A1CX3T | US88160R1014 | boerse.ARD.de