Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mutle]

In my experience the Euro trading usually reflects the momentum of the previous day of US trading, and usually retraces the US market after they have opened. In other cases they often overreact and then adjust once US markets are open. It's a good sign, but unfortunately it will be hard to tell how it behaves tomorrow when the US markets open again.

 

[schonelucht]

Actually, what I like about this quarter is that it really sets the stage for a killer Q3. You could have something like 28k deliveries in Q3 (2000/wk x 13wk + 2000 from Q2), making Tesla free cash flow positive and really upsetting the shorts.

I don't usually buy before end-of-quarter, but I will certainly consider it in Q3.

If you have the stomach for it, then go and I sincerely hope you'll make a killing of it. Me, I will not be trading on production guidance from current management anymore. They happily let the 20k figure stand when *sugar* must already have hit the fan big time at the factory.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Today being a US holiday, I wouldn't read too much into the EU trading right now. Having said that, having released the bad news over the long weekend should mitigate the fallout on Tuesday a bit.

It is also an interesting point to consider, as others have alluded, that the series of negative news over the past weeks has shaken off some of the week longs nad real short time traders (no judgement there). So now most of the stock may be with those private and institutional actors who believe in Elon and the company longer term.

In addition, it has been discussed, that there are barely any stock left to short...

So maybe, just maybe Tuesday won't be the massacre it could be.

 

[Mike Smith]

What people here don't understand is that the numbers themselves aren't that important. What investors are looking for is if there were any actual problems with production like in the first quarter, ie suppier issues or build issues. Delivery issues are pretty much unimportant, and they not only produced close to what they said they would in the quarter, they reaffirmed production for the rest of the year. It looks like all that happened is that the delay in production for the changes to the model s was a little longer than they thought. No significant problems as they ramp up production is a huge vote of confidence for the model 3 schedule.

 

[Mike Smith]

Another factor to consider is that when Tesla announced the offer for Solar City, a LOT of weaker hands sold. Volume was quite heavy the entire time TLSA traded under 213, and I assume this was the investor who was left out of the equity offering buying up shares. I would also assume these shares won't be sold again any time soon.

 

[neroden]

What people here don't understand is that the numbers themselves aren't that important. What investors are looking for is if there were any actual problems with production like in the first quarter, ie suppier issues or build issues. Delivery issues are pretty much unimportant, and they not only produced close to what they said they would in the quarter, they reaffirmed production for the rest of the year. It looks like all that happened is that the delay in production for the changes to the model s was a little longer than they thought. No significant problems as they ramp up production is a huge vote of confidence for the model 3 schedule.

Yeah, but that's *investors*. What about all the algo traders and other extreme short-termers? This is the short-term thread, right?

Another factor to consider is that when Tesla announced the offer for Solar City, a LOT of weaker hands sold. Volume was quite heavy the entire time TLSA traded under 213, and I assume this was the investor who was left out of the equity offering buying up shares. I would also assume these shares won't be sold again any time soon.

Huh, that's a point. For some reason, I hadn't thought about the investors who were left out of the equity offering just buying 'em on the open market... makes sense though.

 

[electracity]

IMHO, the important figure is production. Whether Tesla delivers 14k in Q2 and 22k in Q3, or 16k in Q2 and 20k in Q3 is completely irrelevant.

I like seeing that production is ramping up in accordance with guidance. And I haven't had much hope that Q2 would be amazing. Q3 is where Tesla really needs to kick ass.

I agree that quarterly timing isn't critical. But we still have two quarters with lower deliveries that 2105 Q4. Do model X sales primarily take from model S sales? How much does the model 3 announcement take from model S sales?

I still think Tesla manufactured cars for CPO in Q1. Tesla is trying to find ways to sell to lower price buyers while maintaining a nice margin on loaded vehicles.

 

[Gerardf]

Frankfurt slightly down now. But about inline with the main European markets:

European Stock Markets - CNNMoney

Would indeed be very interesting if the SP holds tomorrow.

I still think Tesla manufactured cars for CPO in Q1. Tesla is trying to find ways to sell to lower price buyers while maintaining a nice margin on loaded vehicles.

Why do you think that ?

Actually all signals seems to point to Tesla indeed still being production constrained. You seem to insinuate Tesla is lying in some formal statements referring to their strong order intake.

Do you have any proof that Tesla has ever intentionally produced new cars to sell them discounted as CPO's ?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I love my Model S. I'll say it now, though. It's about time people started talking about needing a new CEO. Elon should remain as CTO, but not run the company, as it obvious he can't run it.

I don't think Tesla needs a new CEO. What Tesla needs, and doesn't currently have, is a President/COO to manage the daily operations of the company. SpaceX has a President in this role: Gwynne Shotwell. Why doesn't Tesla have someone similar?

To use the Apple::Tesla analogy:

Steve Jobs :: Elon Musk
Jony Ive :: Franz von Holhausen
Tim Cook :: ???

Apple's success was roughly due to a unique combination of Jobs' vision, Jony Ive's design talents, and Tim Cook's expertise in managing supply chains and production. If any of these elements falls out of balance, things don't go as well as they should. I see this happening at Apple. With Steve Jobs gone, Apple has lost some of its product focus and forward thinking, even as the company continues to manage well financially under Tim Cook.

At Tesla, the problem is reversed. I think the issues with production ramp are self explanatory. Perhaps the new guy hired from Audi to get Model 3 production rolling will change things.

Very well said! Elon's "lies" just keep hurting TSLA longs and feeding TSLA shorts very well in the past 2 years. You never know how much bullsh*ts in today's statement wrt. Future promises. TM can always find absurd excuses 3 months from now. Again TSLA is becoming more and more difficult to believe until they show real "steak".

If you believe this to be the case, then the logical course of action is to sell all your positions in TSLA and forget about the company entirely.

If you no longer trust the company or its leadership, then you shouldn't be invested in its stock. I for one would never invest in a company or fund where I believed the management was suspect.

 

[MitchJi]

If you believe this to be the case, then the logical course of action is to sell all your positions in TSLA and forget about the company entirely.

If you no longer trust the company or its leadership, then you shouldn't be invested in its stock. I for one would never invest in a company or fund where I believed the management was suspect.

I agree, but maoing has never trusted the company, at least not since I've been a member of TMC.

 

[AlMc]

I agree, but maoing has never trusted the company, at least not since I've been a member of TMC.

IMO.....One needs to trust in a company to invest in it but can be skeptical if you are a trader as by my definition you are looking to get in and out of the stock and options if you are trying to just make money.

A growth company like TM is perfect for both. If you are strictly an investor then you are long and all these quarterly figures are noise. If you are a trader you move in and out of the stock, and potentially options, trying your best to catch the gyrations in the daily, weekly and quarterly price changes that comes with short term information.

Traders care about the noise..,investors ignore it.

So, which side of s debate/discussion you are on depends on your frame of reference....are you an investor or trader....or, like myself, a hybrid where you are both

 

[X Yes?]

Anyone bother to check Ron Baron's performance over the last decade?

Not good. Lags SP 500 5yr,. 3yr. and 1yr. Particularly bad with tech.

 

[Cattledog]

Would indeed be very interesting if the SP holds tomorrow.

It would probably qualify as an economic miracle. I'd like it to but don't expect it to. If it does, it makes me wonder what would have happened if they met guidance or, heaven forbid, beat it!

 

[BornToFly]

When did he say that? Link please?

Sorry Mitch, I can't remember exactly. It was probably 2015 Q4 ER or conference call, or 2016 Q1 ER or conference call. I am 100% certain though that TE isn't supposed to really ramp significantly until the end of the year. Now could they move it up a quarter with earlier cell production at the Gigafactory because of model 3? I guess it is possible, but I personally wouldn't short term trade on that hope. As much as a I love Elon, things seem to happen a quarter or two after he says they will, not before....

I only have 300 shares that I short term trade with puts and calls. Most of my shares are for the long term, so I shouldn't get upset when we have a "bad" quarter, but I am starting to get a little frustrated, and after 2 years in the same price range, I would like to see the stock price double already! I am not nearly as cynical as Maoing, but I too feel a little misled by Elon this time. He had made it sound like production issues were fixed well before June, so learning yesterday that April and May were a disaster was a surprise. I do think Elon was a little dishonest when he hid that from everyone.

 

[Drax7]

Just a seal and the X was ready to go. Just a seal .
A silly little seal and all was ok back then.
That was back at the February conference call .
It took until June to ramp up, where is the beef?

 

[AlMc]

Just a seal and the X was ready to go. Just a seal .
A silly little seal and all was ok back then.
That was back at the February conference call .
It took until June to ramp up, where is the beef?

You mean the 'steak'.

 

[X Yes?]

There is no rush to produce the Model X at this point. The original order base of 35 K has evaporated due to quality problems and high price. The Model X is going to China early, was necessary, because they don't have the orders in the U.S.

Model S has similar if not worse demand problems. The refresh did not stimulate orders, so the S60 with less "margin" appears.

June was a horrible month for Tesla, with the suspension questions and now AutoPilot,

Deliveries suddenly move to September? This is a marketing move, immediate delivery did not fit the "production constrained" narrative. Plant shutdown to balance production with demand, coming this Summer?

A sequential miss on deliveries, (first time deliveries have gone down quarter to quarter) won't matter to the highly committed individual investors. But we are beginning to see cracks from the institutions ie. Adam Jonas. The suspension questions, Autopilot failure, Model X crash into the Nail Shop, SolarCity merger and horrible quarter will likely trigger a negative reaction from fund managers such as Fidelity.
Next up, GAAP reported 2nd quarter earnings.

This is a Short-Term Price movement thread, there is certainly an opportunity to protect some long term gains by selling shares. I'd like to buy a Model 3 with my Tesla profits, but that won't be possible buying the stock at $216.50. Before the Model 3 is released, we will likely see the single digits again.[/QUOTE]

 

[Gerardf]

Before the Model 3 is released, we will likely see the single digits again.]

Wow. Not even dual or double digit (as in SP below US$ 100), but SINGLE digits ???? As in SP between 0 and $ 10 ?

Please enter your prediction in the Prediction Thread - "You Called It" thread and make sure to add the standard sock-eating wager.
You can also directly enter here : Tesla Predictions

And please do not forget to buy some options to secure your financial gain for TSLA SP to go below US 10,-- before Q4-2017. That should finance your Model-3 easily !

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I agree, but maoing has never trusted the company, at least not since I've been a member of TMC.

IMO.....One needs to trust in a company to invest in it but can be skeptical if you are a trader as by my definition you are looking to get in and out of the stock and options if you are trying to just make money.

My thoughts are that a trader should actually not care whether they believe company management is lying or not, because they can make money either way. If I was a trader and believed that company XYZ was lying, then my strategy would be to either short the stock, use put options, or some combination of both.

People who aren't investors, but looking to make BIG MONEY FAST by trading, and then complain that they can't trust company management, get less than zero sympathy from me. They have the theoretical opportunity to make money based on what they think they know is going on. Failing to capitalize on that is their fault.

 

[X Yes?]

June was pretty impressive.

Even Elon Musk would admit June was a nightmare.

If June is now at a 2000 per week clip, then, what does that bode for July and onward?

This was said last quarter, along with problem free Model X's now moving off the line.

With 5,000 units in transit, how can people argue there is a demand constraint still?

There were units in transfer last quarter that now get counted as sales for Q2.
We do not yet know whether the 5100 have permanent homes or go into inventory or loaners.