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Gerardf
Active Member
Every car Tesla produces is already sold, except for loaners and store cars.
Why do you think Tesla would produce cars for inventory ?
Edit: @ X-Yes: Single digit is a single number. So a SP between 0 and 9,99.
Below 100 is double-digit.
Tesla's reasoning would be to snare the impulse buyer; but mostly to try to keep the line moving.
Gerardf
Active Member
Umm, no.
I advise you to have a look at the website wait time thread : Website wait times for delivery change
Tesla has a backlog of approx. 2 month.. An nobody has ever seen a Tesla inventory.
[/QUOTE]
Single digits? So you really think Tesla will shrink to a valuation of less than 2B? That makes literally no sense. If Apple buys Tidal and Beats for that amount of money, you really think someone would let Tesla's capex become that cheap? This will never happen. Ever.
Take a look at ev-cpo.com and sort by VIN. For example, the consecutive range of VINs from 137700 to 137739 was available as inventory sale (some got sold but the series is still visible). You can find such ranges of 10-20 cars at a time regularly in the list. Those cars were specifically build for inventory and in the meantime are used as loaners.
Gerardf
Active Member
That car was not registered before. there could be many reasons for that, maybe initial buyer could not get his financing complete.
There is no sign Tesla has ever produced ant volume of cars intentionally for inventory.
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Gerardf
Active Member
Why do you think these were not intentionally produced as loaners or demo cars ? Maybe this is a matter of definitions.
X-Yes seems to want to defend that Tesla is producing cars for inventory as they can not keep the line humming otherwise.
OK. this is now starting to derail this Short-term SP thread.
X-YES, in case you feel Tesla is producing cars for inventory, please start a thread to discuss, of continue it in the existing demand thread here : Demand. It is more relevant there.
Moderator: as far as I am concerned the above posts can be moved away from this thread.
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Single digits? So you really think Tesla will shrink to a valuation of less than 2B? That makes literally no sense. If Apple buys Tidal and Beats for that amount of money, you really think someone would let Tesla's capex become that cheap? This will never happen. Ever.[/QUOTE]
No, double digits (previous was a typo) The current valuation is absurd. It is based on rocket ship trajectory of growth. This quarter's (and last's) calls that into question. I know that this is a dirty word, but compare P/E to GM or Toyota, stocks with great profits and dividends.
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@X Yes? said: Absolutely. The current valuation is absurd. It is based on rocket ship trajectory of growth. This quarter's (and last's) calls that into question. I know that this is a dirty word, but compare P/E to GM or Toyota, stocks with great profits and dividends.
For people that know my frame of reference here they know I tend to be conservative in my predictions and skeptical about some of the guidance that is given.
I thought when your posted 'single digits' for TSLA in the future that it was a 'typo' but as you have defended your price target I have to believe that is what you truly believe.
Given that I am a conservation, somewhat skeptical of EM guidance, person.....IF we see single digits as an SP of TSLA I will 'back up the truck', remortgage my home and business buildings, open margin at TD (I don't do margin) and buy as many shares of TSLA as I can at $9/share.
I don't know if a COO would work at Tesla. Tesla has had strong lieutenants before, and they were fired. Shotwell at SpaceX may be a unique case, don't know her personality and what she actually does.
Given Elon's penchant for making outrageous production and sales predictions, I don't know if any QUALITY person is going to want that COO job. This is a company that has no problem delivering products with known manufacturing defects in them (Early Roadster, Model S and Model X quality issues, that's 3 for 3 guys). And Elon definitely got out way over his skis on Tesla Energy. Powerwall v1 was a complete failure, v2 is still to be shipped.
I will grant you that Model 3 is a game changer. Can they sell it as a profit for $35K? Well, Elon says they can.
This is a very tumultuous time for Tesla. We all knew that at some point in time, Model S sales were going to flatten out. If was originally supposed to occur at 20,000 Model S per year, and obviously demand has been much more robust than those early estimates. But we now seem to have found the market limit for Model S, maybe, or maybe Tesla has finally grown to the point that sales cycles affect it (anyone know if Q2 is slow in general in the auto sector?).
And now Model X demand seems to be down as well. A friend of mine was given a 2.5 month time frame for delivery of a new Model X last week.
And in the midst of this, interesting time, for Tesla, Elon decides that now is a good time to use 100% of his executive's time for the Solarcity due diligence (I'm sure his CFO is thrilled right now, Deepak got out just in time, hmmm).
That's either amateur hour on Elon's part or he thinks he needs to do it to head off a train wreck. Neither is reassuring.
Yes indeed, some "weak investors" got out with the SCTY acquisition news. But not all the big funds have moved out. Elon is going to be testing their patience.
Given Elon's penchant for making outrageous production and sales predictions, I don't know if any QUALITY person is going to want that COO job. This is a company that has no problem delivering products with known manufacturing defects in them (Early Roadster, Model S and Model X quality issues, that's 3 for 3 guys). And Elon definitely got out way over his skis on Tesla Energy. Powerwall v1 was a complete failure, v2 is still to be shipped.
I will grant you that Model 3 is a game changer. Can they sell it as a profit for $35K? Well, Elon says they can.
This is a very tumultuous time for Tesla. We all knew that at some point in time, Model S sales were going to flatten out. If was originally supposed to occur at 20,000 Model S per year, and obviously demand has been much more robust than those early estimates. But we now seem to have found the market limit for Model S, maybe, or maybe Tesla has finally grown to the point that sales cycles affect it (anyone know if Q2 is slow in general in the auto sector?).
And now Model X demand seems to be down as well. A friend of mine was given a 2.5 month time frame for delivery of a new Model X last week.
And in the midst of this, interesting time, for Tesla, Elon decides that now is a good time to use 100% of his executive's time for the Solarcity due diligence (I'm sure his CFO is thrilled right now, Deepak got out just in time, hmmm).
That's either amateur hour on Elon's part or he thinks he needs to do it to head off a train wreck. Neither is reassuring.
Yes indeed, some "weak investors" got out with the SCTY acquisition news. But not all the big funds have moved out. Elon is going to be testing their patience.
It's early on the West Coast, Prediction is double digits. Sorry to alarm the faithful!
mmd
Active Member
I think you are confusing assets with shareholder equity. Stockholder equity in Q1 of 2016 was under a billion dollars (see Q1 letter). Assets will mostly go to bond (debt) holders. Also, distressed assets typically sell for a discount.
That said, I doubt we see single digits anytime.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Yeah, see, the issue I have with the assumption that "demand is down" is that we don't know the extent of the disruption in transitioning Model S production from the original line to a new line that integrates Model S and Model X production into a single concurrent line. Screwing up the transition for 2-3 weeks could just as easily account for the low manufacturing numbers from April and May.
Very Unfortunately, I feel this board in general continues to be in complete denial, that demand can be down. When you take a step back, Tesla has 'pulled out all the stops' trying to increase demand. They would not do this if there was no demand problem. Is it hard to believe a nearly five year old car sales have stabilized, and that the market for super luxury electric SUV's is limited?
The question is does it matter? Short -term, yes! Long-term- maybe. If model 3 is a success that comes on time, it will not matter. If it is delayed, we could see liquidity problems. As for TE, to myself it is all pie in the sky at this point, as EVERY quarter there is talk of TE rescuing the numbers.
Elon's comments, while I do believe are genuine at the time, have developed a pattern of missing their mark.
For the first time in years, I am starting to get seriously concerned. By this I mean, in the last few months, I see potential failure (still less than 5 per cent chance), but before I was thinking unstoppable.
I think we hit 175...then it will go back up as the dust settles...and stabilize around where we are know.
The question is does it matter? Short -term, yes! Long-term- maybe. If model 3 is a success that comes on time, it will not matter. If it is delayed, we could see liquidity problems. As for TE, to myself it is all pie in the sky at this point, as EVERY quarter there is talk of TE rescuing the numbers.
Elon's comments, while I do believe are genuine at the time, have developed a pattern of missing their mark.
For the first time in years, I am starting to get seriously concerned. By this I mean, in the last few months, I see potential failure (still less than 5 per cent chance), but before I was thinking unstoppable.
I think we hit 175...then it will go back up as the dust settles...and stabilize around where we are know.
Quit taking me out of context. You know full well I was referring to production numbers.
Read the share holder letter again. It says goal is to be at 2k a week by the end of 2q. Looks like that was met.
All 5100? Just utter nonsense. But if some of those were for inventory, with about 200stores+ , that's about 400 units only. Or are you saying Tesla would deliberately make those cars to be used as inventory worldwide? Sounds a little desperate just to prop up your theory.
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