In the press release Tesla hints that 2615, the number of cars in transit at the end of Q1, is ''correct''. Yet production in Q3/Q4 is guided to be 40% higher suggesting a ''correct'' number to exit the quarter is close to 4000. Personally I do not trust this management anymore to be open and transparent about production guidance anymore after what they pulled this quarter, so I take their projections of 2000 and 2200/wk with a big scope of salt.
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In the press release Tesla hints that 2615, the number of cars in transit at the end of Q1, is ''correct''. Yet production in Q3/Q4 is guided to be 40% higher suggesting a ''correct'' number to exit the quarter is close to 4000. Personally I do not trust this management anymore to be open and transparent about production guidance anymore after what they pulled this quarter, so I take their projections of 2000 and 2200/wk with a big scope of salt.
The week the factory is shut down in Q4 may well be the last week of the year (sat 24th - sat 31st). This means that there are no cars being built to go into the pipeline for the last week. It also means that if you have 3000 cars in the pipeline and a production of 2200/week, the last car to be delivered would be produced on (approximately) December 16th, leaving two full weeks to deliver this car.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
The price action this morning suggests the market trusts management and that is all that matters.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Average isn't relevant because they will ship their overseas deliveries to earlier in the quarter.
Also you are completely ignoring their 2,200 and 2,400 estimates:
I am an S85 owner, Model3 reservation holder and long TSLA, not playing with options, just buying some shares and holding so far, i.e. as much an enthusiast and believer as it gets.
However, after several quarters of repeated "sorry we missed target now, but production rate is so good now, that next quarter is going to be stellar" I am beginning to doubt Elon's words. Just as you can only cry wolf so many times before losing credibility, this mantra of good news always just-around-the-corner is getting old too. He will regain credibility with me when I see actual results delivered, not just promised...
But for now, I will off-load some of my shares.
However, after several quarters of repeated "sorry we missed target now, but production rate is so good now, that next quarter is going to be stellar" I am beginning to doubt Elon's words. Just as you can only cry wolf so many times before losing credibility, this mantra of good news always just-around-the-corner is getting old too. He will regain credibility with me when I see actual results delivered, not just promised...
But for now, I will off-load some of my shares.
Would you consider applying 2200 and 2400 production for the optimistic scenario. In that case the
deliveries exceed 85,000 . However if something can go wrong it will, so lets work with the lower
production range.
What i find important in the latest release is that model x is now at full ramp, and that is what tesla
has expressed and confirmed with confidence. My calculations tell me that above 1800 cars per week they generate
enough revenues to cover all costs, fixed and variable. We shall see.
Once they cover all costs, it makes sense to buy on dips, as the long term objective
becomes less risky.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
And buy them back after good news, when presumably the price will be higher? Sounds like a strategy for selling low and buying high.
In that context what's "up time "?
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
...from behind the paywall (streetinsider.com):
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) amid the Q2 delivery miss reported over the weekend. While he expects shares to face near-term pressure they remain buyers.
Kallo commented, "Total Q2 deliveries were below our estimate and FY:16 deliveries are expected to be slightly below TSLA’s previously guided range. That said, TSLA had >5k vehicles in transit at quarter-end, and significantly ramped production, nearly reaching its targeted production rate of ~2k vehicles per week. We would be buyers on any weakness as upcoming catalysts (additional Model III details, cash flow positive, Model X reviews, gigafactory updates) should drive shares higher over the long term."
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) amid the Q2 delivery miss reported over the weekend. While he expects shares to face near-term pressure they remain buyers.
Kallo commented, "Total Q2 deliveries were below our estimate and FY:16 deliveries are expected to be slightly below TSLA’s previously guided range. That said, TSLA had >5k vehicles in transit at quarter-end, and significantly ramped production, nearly reaching its targeted production rate of ~2k vehicles per week. We would be buyers on any weakness as upcoming catalysts (additional Model III details, cash flow positive, Model X reviews, gigafactory updates) should drive shares higher over the long term."
Gerardf
Active Member
Nice timing of Baird 
Lets see if no shares available to short will indeed help.
Oh my, the bears are going to be so frustrated if this is going to close higher than 210 today.
Will be an interesting first hour.
Lets see if no shares available to short will indeed help.
Oh my, the bears are going to be so frustrated if this is going to close higher than 210 today.
Will be an interesting first hour.
Well, I'm sitting here like a deer in a Tesla's headlights - I'm just holding what I got and not buying or selling.
I find it hard to believe that the only punishment $TSLA will receive for that bad Q2 miss on deliveries is down $7? Really?
Mike
I find it hard to believe that the only punishment $TSLA will receive for that bad Q2 miss on deliveries is down $7? Really?
Mike
0 shares available to short at Fidelity, annual interest rate went up from 12% on Friday to 14% today.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Although I'm not very happy about the miss, I recognize that the company is in a better position now than they were 2-3 quarters ago. The X is ramped, the S is refreshed, the 3 pre-orders were impressive and the competitive responses have been pathetic. Capital raised, Panasonic committed, GF operational(?). Of course cash flow isn't positive and we will see about SCTY, but overall master plan is on track.
I do need to just buy more shares vs leaps however
I do need to just buy more shares vs leaps however
For the first time in four years I opted to de-position about 20% of more core holdings (some on Friday, some during amateur hour this morning). I may reverse that later this summer, but for now I want to de-risk roughly 30%. I will still hold a fairly large position overall, but with a cost average standing somewhere in the $147 range, it was time.
IMO, fair (good) report from Phil LeBeau: Also nicely answered a question about the May accident:
Tesla misses delivery target
Tesla misses delivery target
Gerardf
Active Member
Interesting perspective (for now) :
GM down 2.28%
F down 2.52%
TSLA down 2.91%
Edit: And that while Ford had good June numbers..
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) has been one of the best performing automakers in the U.S. this year. It maintained its momentum in June, posting a solid 6.4% increase in U.S. deliveries.
Read more: Ford Posts Stellar June Sales, While GM Rebounds -- The Motley Fool
GM down 2.28%
F down 2.52%
TSLA down 2.91%
Edit: And that while Ford had good June numbers..
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) has been one of the best performing automakers in the U.S. this year. It maintained its momentum in June, posting a solid 6.4% increase in U.S. deliveries.
Read more: Ford Posts Stellar June Sales, While GM Rebounds -- The Motley Fool
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Way to lead the auto industry, TSLA!!!
Sorry, in a dark humor mood.
Just put in another teensy accumulate-on-the-lows limit order - thanks to you all for sharing your thoughts and insights here. My naive, flawed gut instinct says I'll be accumulating through to GF opening (and July delivery announcement), then things will bounce up a bit, but I'm not expecting any serious short squeeze until Q3 ER (*if* SCTY acquisition goes smoothly, i.e. street trusts Elon; and *if* ER shows profit; and it would also be nice to have some positive news on M3 production plans).
Gerardf
Active Member
Press reporting balanced is helping the SP today. Could have been much worse.
On CCN Money :
Tesla is struggling to get its cars to customers
Tesla is building cars at a faster pace, but it's having problems delivering them to eager customers.
The electric car maker announced on Sunday it delivered only 78% of the 18,345 cars it built in the second quarter. The difference - a large jump in the number of cars that are on their way to dealers. It said there were 5,150 cars on trucks and ships at the end of the quarter, roughly twice as many as were in transit at the end of the first quarter.
On CCN Money :
Tesla is struggling to get its cars to customers
Tesla is building cars at a faster pace, but it's having problems delivering them to eager customers.
The electric car maker announced on Sunday it delivered only 78% of the 18,345 cars it built in the second quarter. The difference - a large jump in the number of cars that are on their way to dealers. It said there were 5,150 cars on trucks and ships at the end of the quarter, roughly twice as many as were in transit at the end of the first quarter.
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