larmor
Active Member
buy it while you can-- buy before the tesla bus and semi get priced in. For the short term, this is the most important catalyst- no new tech, just big heavy truck/bus frame and large large battery...
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Wait a minute...
"You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app"
So ten years from now the cars are doing magic tricks and we're still tapping a button on a phone app? You mean you have to use your HANDS? Thats like a baby's toy!
Besides Elon's pessimistic outlook for mobile technology, the plan is fantastic.
"You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app"
So ten years from now the cars are doing magic tricks and we're still tapping a button on a phone app? You mean you have to use your HANDS? Thats like a baby's toy!
Besides Elon's pessimistic outlook for mobile technology, the plan is fantastic.
I can just see it now-- Tesla Semis and Busses clogging up the supercharger stalls.
How about teslanarires (sp?) clogging up Neuman Marcus checkout lines?
I am disappointed, because planes, trains, boats, submarines, electric hyperloops and rockets were left out!!
To Mars and beyond!!
larmor
Active Member
Just checked his linkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeromeguillen
He's been VP of Programs since Jan '16, and was "on leave" for about 5 months. Probably needed that vacation.
Ulmo
Active Member
Yes, but this is a long time in coming. I would watch the television late at night and sometimes the community channels would have tapes from the local community television sources. One particular source was the Salinas Valley communist party. They had a celebration piece about how they succeeded in negotiating with the Salinas Valley farmers for a bunch of better conditions, and among one of the concessions, and the biggest one by far, was not to automate all of the picking and processing of many crops. (Among other things, this was done decades ago, and points out the complete lie that we need anybody at all to pick crops; the farmers were about to completely automate decades ago, and by now, would be 100% automated except for boutique units.) This same anti-automation lobbying has also happened in the construction trades in the many construction unions. For a short time, this also happened at auto companies, but eventually, the humans couldn't keep up with factory demands, so those efforts failed. Many train systems have been able to be automated for decades at this point, and many had plans to automate, and even UPRR went as far as to automate many routes, and labor groups (many unions) fought back and stopped most of the automation (I believe UPRR does some routes with auto trains now though). Automation still hasn't come completely to: farms, construction, transportation. I believe landscaping is the next big target for automation, trimming trees, grass, planting, etc.. Also, garbage collection and sorting. Farms already wanted to do it, and would have been able to do it, and can develop it now if they want. Same is about to happen for transportation. Construction is more detailed, but the benefits of automation in construction are absolutely mind-boggling, having to do with quality control, danger control (toxics and dangerous situations), accessibility, timelines, consistency, and a whole host of other efficiencies and improvements, but it is also more complex and would take longer than some simple stuff like farms and transportation. But it's all coming.
So, the society has to figure out what to do with all the humans that don't need to work and don't have stuff to do to work. Merit-based employment is really really awesome in designing a society of resource allocation and social and moral responsibility. But, two things: (a) we are no longer a merit-based society with a lot of the income redistribution programs that actually reward inferior products and employees and lack of working, and (b) in the future, not everyone will have to work, so because of both (a) AND (b), we need to get away from welfare as a punishment for being a sucky person in a sucky situation, and go head-long into some sort of society where if you are responsible and moral enough, you don't have to work, and still be merit-based for those who do work, because making work a punishment is not a foundation of a good society either.
No one has actually implemented that yet to my knowledge. But, we will. We have already been experimenting with some of it, whether or not we like it. Scores of kids are taking brain-cell killing drugs as recreation, effectively removing themselves from merit-based work, and that population simply cannot participate in the work side of the equation. They already receive income redistribution. The Democrats crow about a life of dignity on welfare. All we have to do is change the word "welfare" to "non-working people", and the responsibility of the "non-working people" needs to be established as a moral and responsible behavior unto itself rather than scorned as a bad thing. Avenues between that existence and the merit-based work existence should be seamless; you shouldn't be punished for being on either side of the fence of working or somewhere in between simply for being on that side of the fence, but there is such a thing as experience, ability (see the brain cell killing thing I mentioned), and where you kind of end up. It's essentially a "default" existence. Perhaps "default" is better than "welfare" or "non-working people"; "default" income, "default" lifestyle, "default" work (none). But, then people feel idle, don't feel like they have purpose, and that is truly a life-suck, so that has to be simultaneously solved. Some solutions had to do with making the work week shorter. Everyone works only 10 hours a week. Other solutions gave people games to play. At the same time, and part of it all, is we will be evolving more and more into our cyborg existences, as we already have been. Some of us cyborgs will become superhuman more and more, and that might be a whole new universe to explore, with remote self-programmed robots exploring the solar system, planets, moons, asteroids, and other human-created entities. Some of it will be exploring software realms. A lot of it will cross. There will be plenty to do in the future, for those who want to and are able to.
Nothing is solved today. But, it's all coming. I believe the solutions will be some combination of the above. And we're all learning how to do that. Every step we take is a step in understanding that. Even USENET, Facebook, Twitter, and Pokemon Go adhere to that "step in that direction" mantra. Fast or slow, clean or dirty, organized or disorganized, it will happen. Let's hope it happens in a peaceful manner. I'm counting on it being peaceful, through modern religions and morals, and modern understanding.
Yes, transportation jobs will move out from behind the steering wheel and into the office. Office jobs will move out from the office and into the mind of computers and humans and cyborgs.
Historically, lots of old jobs used to exist that no longer exist, and although wars were one solution, we've also found many other solutions. I don't think we'll all have enough work to keep us 100% occupied with laborious doings (whether cerebral or physical or both), but there will be stuff to do of both interesting nature and to occupy one's time.
Eventually, we might have to run into the question of how many people is enough, and how many worlds is enough. We need to set goals of spreading to other planets and solar systems to keep ourselves occupied. And then, those ships might get to a certain capacity, and there may be extra people for whom the play, work, and retirement available isn't enough purpose in life, and we will have to prematurely effect new terraforming on new planets and moons while we design education systems to right-size our newborn population sizes. This is scary. I'm scared. But we should be. It is all coming and the better and faster we embrace it, the better off we will be. Being at the forefront of it here with Tesla will be the best place to be. That's why I'm not scared of it coming to the transportation industry. We need to see this happen. We need to deal with it. It will happen, and someone needs to be there for it to work out OK in the end. People will figure it out for themselves. People is us and all the drivers. Somehow it will work out.
Autopilot just saved someone's life - > Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Between that and how well recieved SMP2 has been, tomorrow morning should be solid.
Between that and how well recieved SMP2 has been, tomorrow morning should be solid.
Ulmo
Active Member
Thinking inside the box with non-innovative shapes, existing truck sizes have a different capital and manufacturing profile than cars. For instance, they're bigger, and cost more, so it's easier to ask for more money and get a sample hand-built factory lined up for step 1. The more automation the merrier, of course, but it is not quite as the same level of mandatory existence as the cars year 1. Year 2 and 3 ... sure, but by then, they can have automated it more. Another benefit to trucks is they have a hell of a lot more space and weight capacity to work with. It's still a struggle, but not quite the struggle of art that cars are. I might even be folly to underestimate the advantage of not redesigning trucks just as they redesigned cars; they could bolt on electrics to a truck, or they could redesign it from the ground up as an electric beast. But the I-beam frame is a fantastically simple conceptual starting point that can be adjusted to fit the electrics pretty easily. It wouldn't be hard to do a few workable solutions on round 1, 2, and 3, all the while making better more purpose-honed solutions with time.
Trucks are going to get smaller, though. Eventually cargo vehicles are going to be really small. So, there's a whole world of miniaturization to go on. But also remember that they will not need hardening and safety for human occupants, and no driver cabs, so that takes off a lot of weight, size, and shape restraints. There's huge rooms for redevelopmental improvements if starting from scratch. You're right that that could take a while, but in the scheme of cars, it seems like they'd just be a slight more hardened type of car, and not too far from what they're already making. I believe Elon said this is the direction they're already going in. There's plenty of smaller vans on the roads today, so conceptually, there's lots of examples of existing smaller cargo vehicles that new designs made from the ground up can consider when they want existing examples to consider.
On the energy side, I echo your complaint, but at least part of it can be explained by the idea that energy is pretty simple: catch it, store it, and all the interprocessing in catching, storing and using it. To me, the only hard parts are execution at this point, which is what all the hubub has been about as far as I'm concerned.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I think we'll see at least a 5-10% increase over the next day or two ($245ish by EOW). And probably another 5-10% next week. Between all the press coverage, possible analyst upgrades (looking at you Jonas), share callbacks, and no shares available for shorting... it should be a nice couple of days/weeks coming up.
Ulmo
Active Member
sub
Active Member
I'm sure we will see non stop articles praising AP equal to the BS we have endured for the last month.
Ulmo
Active Member
I'm thinking, using a ship at sea analogy: the captain of the ship has stayed sane (within Tesla-speak), and has his act together, and knows where he is going. This should behave as a confidence boost. Eventually some people will price in the various business profits available from the more precise layout of the seas ahead. This will be weighed by the costs and profits available from those travels. So, a confidence component, a future profit component, a future expenditure component, specific market segment components, and a confidence that the Solar City merger will happen with associated benefits and detriments. SP should associatively go up and down according to those variables from this announcement going forward and future events, is my guess.
This is unlike Apple, where the captain of the ship is just kind of sailing around aimlessly.
I was going to post something about this. I firmly belive we are moving towards a sufficiently productive future that these sorts of systems will work. It's all about the productivity. In a sufficiently productive society, no one needs to work.
(I abhor neo-luddism.)
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