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When it comes to the SMP2, I like it.
I've been a big fan of electric cargo transportation, and I think Tesla has every opportunity to succeed. One of the big challenges is sufficient battery capacity, and charging. An electric semi needs a battery with something like 1000-2000 kWh, or about 5 metric tons of batteries. This isn't hugely problematic, as long as cargo transportation is usually limited by max volume and not max weight. As long as the vehicle they provide can haul standard shipping containers, and an equivalent number of pallets to a gas/diesel semi, the battery mass likely isn't a huge challenge.
Charging is a bit more problematic. You can either go for battery swapping, super-duper-charging, or some form of electrified road. I think Tesla will go for option one or two. Battery swapping is the least time-demanding way to refuel, but charging is simpler and likely cheaper. In an autonomous semi, the argument can be made that charging is better, because you won't have a driver sitting idle, waiting for the charge to finish. But at the same time, battery swapping means the cargo will arrive sooner, even with an autonomous semi. I'm really not sure what Tesla will go for. It may be that like the Model S, Tesla will offer both, and then just see what's most popular.
I've been a big fan of electric cargo transportation, and I think Tesla has every opportunity to succeed. One of the big challenges is sufficient battery capacity, and charging. An electric semi needs a battery with something like 1000-2000 kWh, or about 5 metric tons of batteries. This isn't hugely problematic, as long as cargo transportation is usually limited by max volume and not max weight. As long as the vehicle they provide can haul standard shipping containers, and an equivalent number of pallets to a gas/diesel semi, the battery mass likely isn't a huge challenge.
Charging is a bit more problematic. You can either go for battery swapping, super-duper-charging, or some form of electrified road. I think Tesla will go for option one or two. Battery swapping is the least time-demanding way to refuel, but charging is simpler and likely cheaper. In an autonomous semi, the argument can be made that charging is better, because you won't have a driver sitting idle, waiting for the charge to finish. But at the same time, battery swapping means the cargo will arrive sooner, even with an autonomous semi. I'm really not sure what Tesla will go for. It may be that like the Model S, Tesla will offer both, and then just see what's most popular.
I can just see it now-- Tesla Semis and Busses clogging up the supercharger stalls.
I know you're kidding, but I really think the buses and semis will use battery swap. When time is money and there's only one size of battery for the fleet, a battery swap is the way to go.
Ulmo
Active Member
Those two are possibilities, and I add some more: the factory can produce anything car-like, and so you order whatever, and out pops whatever you ordered. Therefore, the factory is the product because everything else is just what it does. Like a hairbrush is a product because it brushes hair (of any type that hairbrush can handle). You buy a factory and it makes any car (that it can handle).
I don't think I'm right. That's not a product. Let's see: I think you must be right. Selling the factory, or perhaps like a timeshare, the use of it. For instance, Intel is called a "hotel" because it is just a building inside which "owners" put their "tools", and make deals with whatever semiconductor makers want it to make. That "hotel" is a product by Intel. So, since Intel is old and has been doing this factory as product thing forever (in my personal timeline), perhaps Elon is trying to iterate or go way beyond even that, selling the tools or use of them themselves, and making whatever --- ships, cars, spaceports, solar panels, inverters, homes. You want to make a new country in the Pacific Ocean? Buy some Tesla factories (made by Tesla factories, of course), designate an area, and the factories go to work building your ships, homes, cars, and whole civil infrastructure, from the seabed up into the sky.
I'm not clear on this either.
Ulmo
Active Member
I've thought of dozens of possibilities. One I particularly like in today's outdated cargo system is putting the batteries into the cargo containers, and they charge at every dock while loading and unloading, and if necessary, in the yard. Have time sensitive loads that are fast to load and unload and don't have dock time enough to charge? Pre-charge in the yard and dock when charged. Truck hooks up with minimal around-town batteries and the containers have enough juice for the haul needed for that container.
My main point about cargo electrification is how damn easy it is compared to cars. There's dozens of possibilities you can implement in business far more easily that aren't available to consumers at similar capability levels. Each one has its own challenges and solutions. Some will win out. It's not as dazzlingly difficult as one might think when enough people are put on it to solve it.
In the case of the semi, you can swap the semi instead of the battery. Think 'pony express' with semi's.
Ulmo
Active Member
I will respond in-line:
Tesla has now declared war on utility companies. (1)
True. But this has to happen. I don't think this is quite the fight you make it out to be. Old Oil ruining the whole planet and seeding the discontent (by who knows what means they did that we never found out about) and financing of religious wars (Muslims et al) is going to continue, and we are going to have to continue to fight them. We have to win, though; there's no other way. Letting the old fashioned and pissed off Muslims win isn't a path to saving the planet: the old fashioned among them aren't futuristic enough to live here in massive numbers like they would want to; the most modern among them are actually transforming to be modern anyway and not be just the Old Oil, so they are removing themselves from that side of the fence. So winning against Old Oil will be relatively easy compared to the alternative, and everyone will realize that, and it will happen.
Coal is more problematic, but they've seen the writing on the wall already, and many have started closing in USA and China.
Grids are getting outdated, and could as easily be recycled and beautified by removing them than as upgrading them. As long as utilities don't spend more on fossil fuel plants, they should find a way to down-size their production and go into grid services, and where appropriate, remove their services by taking out and recycling their grid lines.
Tesla has now declared war on home roofing companies. (2)
I disagree: roofing business will use solar panels as roofing. Tesla is just another roofing company. Some roofing companies will go to work for Tesla or fold, and others will compete.
Tesla has now declared war on Uber, Lyft and all taxi firms.
I disagree: Uber and Lyft will be customers, partners, and competitors to and with Tesla. Taxies are old fashioned and will do whatever; transportation of humans will far outstrip whatever the small number of "taxi" cabs there are, so who cares about them. They'll be kind of romantic, probably, to get that nice Taxi cab feeling. Attrition will make it not so bad.
Tesla has now declared war on semi truck manufacturers who were watching the premium car battle from the bleachers.
Once again, I disagree: they'll participate. They'll make electrics of their own. Lots of new trucks to build and sell. Problem is, they'll have an uphill climb to figure out the designs; they'll have to partner with Tesla for that.
Tesla has now declared war on the operators of urban car parking lots that charge money each day
A lot of those parking lots barely make money, and would be happy to sell out to now more valuable real estate uses. Also, this will happen seamlessly by market forces since the cars won't be put into use overnight (except in jurisdictions where the capability level far exceeds the regulatory level, and the regulations change all at once; that's politician's fault, though, not Tesla's; even so, suddenly selling to a bunch of real estate developers won't be that hard).
And Tesla will become a player in other markets like bus manufacturing.
That's true. But electric buses have been around for a while.
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Farm and construction tractors were omitted from the note. I am concerned that would be an area of competition with opposition. If they aren't completely stupid, existing companies are already working on farm and construction tractor designs that are electric. Otherwise, they'll have to fight Tesla when the anti-fossil regulations come down against all uses, and be left naked in the fields holding onto their own air. Their only hope would be Tesla failed to help out, and everyone has to go to scratch from the ground up at the same time. Either way, I suspect lots of partnerships, frienemies, and automation all happening at once, along with a lot of retirements in the competitive companies with young bloods that don't care about the transformations going on. So, in essence, I think this will be a lot of hullabaloo on the farm radio shows, and no big deal civilly or for Tesla.
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I hope not. France is a nightmare to work with due to their insane labour laws, unions that can shut down the country, language laws, data privacy laws and high salaries.
Ok so my take on Part Deux.
I love almost everything about it, especially trucks and buses, but I have some thoughts/concerns in two areas. (Note, that even with these, Tesla will be struggling to meet demand for the next decade or longer...)
1, As others have pointed out I really missed the utility side of TE. While personal PV setups certainly have their place, unless electricity prices really go up or Tesla manages to cut prices very significantly, you are basically proposing that people invest in SF or take a huge loan on sg that will pay for itself in 20 years. Right now my electricity bill is $15 a month.... But make it double for a bigger household. Would I try to pre-pay for that for the next 20 years with a loan so it would become "free" for another 10 years after that? Not sure, even though I am 37.
2, The part about not needing anything below the price point of M3 because of shared cars and new cool buses is a bit utopistic to me.
- It is basically saying that if only taxis were cheaper, and buses would stop closer to your home, people would not be buying cars. But many people like to own things and dont want to sit in a random car after random strangers. As for a shared bus to your doorstep, have you guys ever used a shared airport shuttle? When you share the ride with 4-5 people whose hotels are in the same direction as yours? I have... That was the first and last time ever... Trip took 2x the taxi ride.
- The notion that the M3 is affordable always made me cringe. It is affordable in the Western world plus Japan and maybe places like S. Korea. For the other 6Bn people it is a luxury item. Here in Eastern Europe roughly half the M3 price is what most of the MIDDLE CLASS could afford with a 5-7 year loan. You go to the 3rd world and you need to cut that price again by 50-70% or more. Saying all those people will just take the bus is a little naive.
Having said that, the new Master Plan will still fill Tesla's factory floors with more than they could handle and I love it.
I love almost everything about it, especially trucks and buses, but I have some thoughts/concerns in two areas. (Note, that even with these, Tesla will be struggling to meet demand for the next decade or longer...)
1, As others have pointed out I really missed the utility side of TE. While personal PV setups certainly have their place, unless electricity prices really go up or Tesla manages to cut prices very significantly, you are basically proposing that people invest in SF or take a huge loan on sg that will pay for itself in 20 years. Right now my electricity bill is $15 a month.... But make it double for a bigger household. Would I try to pre-pay for that for the next 20 years with a loan so it would become "free" for another 10 years after that? Not sure, even though I am 37.
2, The part about not needing anything below the price point of M3 because of shared cars and new cool buses is a bit utopistic to me.
- It is basically saying that if only taxis were cheaper, and buses would stop closer to your home, people would not be buying cars. But many people like to own things and dont want to sit in a random car after random strangers. As for a shared bus to your doorstep, have you guys ever used a shared airport shuttle? When you share the ride with 4-5 people whose hotels are in the same direction as yours? I have... That was the first and last time ever... Trip took 2x the taxi ride.
- The notion that the M3 is affordable always made me cringe. It is affordable in the Western world plus Japan and maybe places like S. Korea. For the other 6Bn people it is a luxury item. Here in Eastern Europe roughly half the M3 price is what most of the MIDDLE CLASS could afford with a 5-7 year loan. You go to the 3rd world and you need to cut that price again by 50-70% or more. Saying all those people will just take the bus is a little naive.
Having said that, the new Master Plan will still fill Tesla's factory floors with more than they could handle and I love it.
I don't think the batteries will be in the trailer. For one thing, there are a lot more trailers than there are tractors. Every battery sitting idle is a 200k+ USD investment depreciating.
I do think there will be charging at the dock, but probably only opportunity charging. A semi supercharger would need to be something like 1 MW, and it would be a pretty big investment to equip the docks with charging infrastructure. In Europe it would be doable to install dumb 63A 400V three phase plugs (45 kW) at each dock. Often the docks already have something similar, for refridgerated containers and such. I don't know what the equivalent US plug would be, but a 40-50 kW onboard charger would be really helpful in topping up the battery wherever possible.
Most charging would need to be done at specific locations, preferably near a very good grid connection. A superdupercharger station with or without battery swapping could need a grid connection in the area of 10 MW.
I agree in some ways it's easier.
Julian Cox goes into the economics of "robo taxis" in some detail, if you haven't already read this. His follow up comments are pretty potent too
Tesla Model 3 & The Economics Of Autonomy — Why An Autonomous ICE Vehicle Is Relatively Pointless
Yeah, I emailed him in April with some positive feedback on Tesla service and when he wrote back he said that he was no longer involved with the sales and services, but was obviously very much still working for Tesla.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
What Elon is saying is that a cheaper car is not necessary because revenue from shared mobility rides may cover 50%-100% of the monthly car payment.
I know many people don't want to rent out their car when they are not using it. But it is an option to make the car affordable to a large section of the global middle class. I don't think Tesla is aiming for 100% market share so If you reject that option and can't afford the full ~$40k over 7 years then you buy another brand.
Mike Smith
Active Member
So, how do we reconcile this statement from Cramer. I'm not sure it makes sense. Correct, the shares cannot be borrowed and the stock is heavily shorted. So, why would a short squeeze not be possible or am I misinterpreting Cramer's statement.
Jim Cramer says Tesla's new 'master plan' won't matter - the stock is 'heavily shorted.'
Jim Cramer says Tesla's new 'master plan' won't matter - the stock is 'heavily shorted.'
Yep, I don't want to rent out or "ride share" my personal vehicle either. But then I'm a "car guy". Many (most?) people view their car as an appliance that's there solely to get them from point A to point B with the least amount of fuss. If they can push a button on their phone and make some extra cash with their appliance they would do it in a second.
If I could make some money on it I would consider getting a second car or not trading in a car that I could dedicate to autonomous ride sharing.
Mike
Yeah no disagreement there. Obviously Tesla does not intend to or has to replace all 2Bn vehicles around the world.
My comment was more general in terms of Elon's vision about transportation in the next 15-20 years.
He very accurately identified 10 years ago, that you shouldn't try to change some of basic human nature. Yes most folks drive like 30 miles or less a day and a car's looks is not material to its function, yet people will never buy ugly weirdmobils with 80 miles of range even if technically they would do the job - and far more efficiently.
I think the same may be true in the ownership vs sharing/renting/automated bus discussion.
Short manipulation in early hours.
They push the stock down on purpose to propel the sense that market didn't receive the plan well. There was a Cramer video on this type of manipulation somewhere.
Add: longs with dry powder can easily exploit this.
They push the stock down on purpose to propel the sense that market didn't receive the plan well. There was a Cramer video on this type of manipulation somewhere.
Add: longs with dry powder can easily exploit this.
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