Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[3Victoria]

Also ... Car sharing ... There will be a record of who, when, how ... And probably video. If one wants to do salacious things, one will have to use one's own vehicle.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Eh personal trainers, Yoga instructors? Or massage specialists with a human touch? You know these engineers are prone to back aches and would rather prefer human fingers to massage chairs.

The problem here is again one of numbers. Any given industrial economy has only a relatively small number of engineer/designer/creatives. A modern giant like Google has around 57k employees and 500B in market cap. An older industrial/engineering/manufacturing giant like GE has around 300k employees and 300B in market cap.

1 Yoga instructor might teach several classes/day with 10-15 people. 1 personal trainer might meet with 6-7 clients/day. Jobs like these to serve the creative class won't generate enough jobs to offset losses.

Where I see this headed is a 2-tier society like Gallifrey, where the Time Lords live in their protected Citadel, while the rest live in a kind of 3rd world type wasteland.

 

[yesla]

Here is where I don't think people understand the danger.

First Principle 1: The purpose of a machine is to multiply the "work" (in an economic sense, not necessarily a physical mechanics sense) output of a human.

For a mechanical machine, that means multiplying what that human can do, e.g. a sewing machines allows a person to sew say 10x what a normal person can sew. For a computational machine, that means multiplying what a human can do with their mind. A "fleet manager" can manage multiple trucks/buses. If 1 fleet manager can manage 100 vehicles that used to require 1 human drive each, what do the 99 displaced human workers do? The new jobs created by leveraging technology will be far less than the number of jobs eliminated by that tech.

When routine agricultural jobs were eliminated in the 19th and early 20th centuries via mechanization, people could still find jobs in factories. When routine factory jobs became increasingly automated, there were still plenty of office jobs and jobs where human hand/eye coordination could not be replaced. Now with even routine office work and traditional hand/eye coordination jobs under threat, where will people go?


First Principle 2: Not everyone is smart enough to be an Engineer, designer, or tech worker.

First Principle 3: Idle people get into trouble.

Do we really want hordes of idle people to become "irrelevant" to society? Jailing people en masse works very poorly today, and I doubt it would work any better in the future. People without work and without purpose will resort to crime to survive.

I love new technology, but I also find that societies in general do not really consider the implications of what technology will do to the fabric of a society.

I think this actually presents us with a challenge that people have been avoiding since the industrial revolution. We have become more productive as individuals, but we have lost our way. We know the price of everything but not the value to anything.

From early education, we have been trained to fit a mold and eventually lose our creative potential. the part of us that brings joy and fulfillment. not everyone... but a lot of people face this identity crisis.

Machines have taken over repetitive, menial jobs. it turned out, nobody wanted them. great!

AI can replace many more jobs - but it can also empower individuals to be entrepreneurs. things that used to take a team of people to do can now be done by a single person, great! A sign of a healthy and robust economy is the number of small businesses. Big companies have economies of scale but are slow to adapt to the fluid market demands. small business/self employment is the counter balance that keeps big companies honest. This could be what we need to kick start prosperity again.... unless only big companies get access to AI... then, I guess I wont want to live on this planet anymore...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

You guys are crazy not to realize how high TSLA is going tomorrow. $15 at least. Lots of large investors who had heard that Tesla was potentially a trillion dollar company were waiting for this outline to be able to judge whether it could actually be true. After all, if the company could go up 30X why not wait until after finding out more and pay an inconsequential 5% extra. Truck is huge. Ride sharing is huge. Driverless electric semi is huge. Gigaparty coming with energy announcements. New long term investors piling in and shorts have to cover at same time. I`d actually be surprised to be up less than $20 tomorrow.

I think the opposite.

I believe that Elon's plan has a reasonable chance of success, but most of the people I know, even very intelligent ones, consider stuff like what is included in the SM2 to actually be crazy, as in insane.

My guess is that the response from the financial world will be skepticism.

 

[SunCatcher]

"It is not a dream

It is a simple feat of scientific electrical engineering

Electric power can drive the world's machinery without the need of coal, oil, or gas

Although perhaps humanity is not yet sufficiently advanced to be willingly led by the inventor's keen searching sense

Perhaps it is better in this present world of ours that a revolutionary idea be hampered in its adolescence

All that was great in the past was ridiculed, condemned, combatted, suppressed, only to emerge all the more triumphantly from the struggle.
…
Our duty is to lay the foundation for those that are to come, and to point the way

Yes, humanity will advance with giant strides

We are whirling through endless space at an inconceivable speed

All around everything is spinning; everything is moving;

Everywhere, there is energy!"

Nikola Tesla

 

[Ulmo]

Elon:

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
​

(Credit to Julian, who shouted this at the top of his lungs. Too bad he couldn't stay on message and got banned again.)

So, I feel duty bound to pair my previous pondering about 90KWh batteries possibly actually being 100KWh packs limited by software (which in my defense I said was EXTREMELY UNLIKELY) with another even more grotesque pondering possibility (AND ALSO EXTREMELY UNLIKELY): Perhaps Julian Cox = Elon Musk's TMC posting pseudonym (or heck, one of his children, or relatives). That explains why such an extreme member would have to be banned; he's just saying things that are just too completely wild.

 

[ggies07]

I think the opposite.

I believe that Elon's plan has a reasonable chance of success, but most of the people I know, even very intelligent ones, consider stuff like what is included in the SM2 to actually be crazy, as in insane.

My guess is that the response from the financial world will be skepticism.

It just means people are not paying attention to what is changing in the world.

There's:

More solar than ever, residential and utility (1 million and counting)
number of EVs on the road go up daily
Gas utilities wanting to add renewable instead of the old way (NY)
huge casinos leaving for their own renewable (back to #1 on the list)
NHTSA getting behind self driving

It's all right there......just need to open their eyes.

 

[FluxCap]

BRB, gotta model revenue for Tesla pickups, light SUVs, semis, autonomous shared car service, and global solar + energy storage deployment. Hoo boy, that's good stuff. I don't know if the share price will pop on this short term, but I don't really care. It confirms that Elon has precisely the right mix of Model 3 execution focus and "dream big" new products and businesses to keep things going.

That blog post was awesome.

It's not always easy to be a Tesla investor, advocate and early adopter fending off criticism, "haters" and naysayers left and right. Yet Elon knows how to stoke the fires of inspiration in people that work for and with him - and that may just be what drags this planet kicking and screaming into a better future after all.

 

[Ulmo]

Love it, but not sure why it took all night and all day?????

Edit: I guess to narrow down all the potential ideas into what mattered most, perhaps.

Honestly, I surmise that it takes a lot to refine every little bit of statement to make it accurate and have the right real effects. There's a very careful balance of what to leave in and take out of a big plan when revealing it publicly. It has to be done strategically in every sense, and it has to work in every sense, to a net outcome of not only positive effect, but that the total effect of the establishments (Tesla, Solar City, etc. etc.) succeed. That's quite a bit of writing. Anybody can slop together a bunch of talk about the stuff that's in that message. It takes a while to make it proper.

I was only able to scare out a few small nuances in the post, and yet it was barely enough to tip me over the edge on a major topic. Yet, it is obviously leaving some huge stuff out. There's some sort of strategy at work there, and I don't quite know what it is yet. (Re: Solar City purchase.)

Also, it put in a few missing puzzle pieces for which I have been on record as saying they are missing the boat (trucks). Now, they're doing OK in my book on that topic. All that took was one paragraph. Yet, it's there.

While in my book being secretive about Solar City's financials and stuff is a negative, it is part of the overall writing. So is the trucks part. It takes a while to craft such a message.

(My prediction about the Solar City omissions is that he's avoiding talking about some really bad stuff in hopes that the really good stuff outshine it; for the record, my conclusion (guess) is that since he said he was bringing Solar City along for the ride 10 years ago AND the really good stuff is good enough, that it's PROBABLY good enough to overshadow the bad stuff, and that the bad stuff is still bad, but it can be dealt with (hopefully of course).)

 

[Crowded Mind]

I personally think that ride sharing will be a hard sell for most people. I keep equipment and items in my car that I wouldn't want to be stolen. I also don't want people hotboxing my car with pot or using it to pick up hookers. I don't think I would put my personal car up for ride sharing, and most of the people I know would not do so either.

If it covered your car payment, you might feel differently. And if not, certainly millions of others would.

 

[SteveG3]

The problem here is again one of numbers. Any given industrial economy has only a relatively small number of engineer/designer/creatives. A modern giant like Google has around 57k employees and 500B in market cap. An older industrial/engineering/manufacturing giant like GE has around 300k employees and 300B in market cap.

1 Yoga instructor might teach several classes/day with 10-15 people. 1 personal trainer might meet with 6-7 clients/day. Jobs like these to serve the creative class won't generate enough jobs to offset losses.

Where I see this headed is a 2-tier society like Gallifrey, where the Time Lords live in their protected Citadel, while the rest live in a kind of 3rd world type wasteland.

if we share the benefits of automation, it's a massive plus for society. if we continue to have the benefits flow in massive disproportion to a very small segment of the population, yes, the issues you raise are valid. not judging anyone's behavior, just the two basic scenarios that may play out.

maybe the most important technological advancement we need is developing a way to see the worth of all lives and share what's available with all those lives, while not removing all the rewards for vision and effort.

 

[Xpert]

As for the stunning new solar... perhaps it is something that replaces tiles and shingles instead of being installed over the roof like current solar. That would probably be a game changer. Solar shingles / tiles.

Exactly, thats what people still didnt realize. No ugly solar panels on top of existing roof. Stunning solar roof, better looking than ALL current roof styles. They can charge 2x the price and people would still buy them because your new beautiful roof generate electricity from every inch of it. I have no doubt that Elon's top notch design team can pull this off after solarcity's purchase. People will then pay a fraction of electricity cost they currently pay. Best case, Tesla solar roof + inverter + battery could go on top of every house in the entire world!

Short term though, expect no pop until Q3 delivery. Execution has been tesla's biggest problem, and plans alone wont change investor's minds. I predict it might even go down on Solarcity risks and Q2 weakness in the coming weeks. Get dry powder ready again.

 

[sundaymorning]

BRB, gotta model revenue for Tesla pickups, light SUVs, semis, autonomous shared car service, and global solar + energy storage deployment. Hoo boy, that's good stuff. I don't know if the share price will pop on this short term, but I don't really care. It confirms that Elon has precisely the right mix of Model 3 execution focus and "dream big" new products and businesses to keep things going.

That blog post was awesome.

It's not always easy to be a Tesla investor, advocate and early adopter fending off criticism, "haters" and naysayers left and right. Yet Elon knows how to stoke the fires of inspiration in people that work for and with him - and that may just be what drags this planet kicking and screaming into a better future after all.

Looks like Elon was able to lure you out of your cave, welcome back Flux.

 

[RobStark]

Here is where I don't think people understand the danger.

First Principle 1: The purpose of a machine is to multiply the "work" (in an economic sense, not necessarily a physical mechanics sense) output of a human.

For a mechanical machine, that means multiplying what that human can do, e.g. a sewing machines allows a person to sew say 10x what a normal person can sew. For a computational machine, that means multiplying what a human can do with their mind. A "fleet manager" can manage multiple trucks/buses. If 1 fleet manager can manage 100 vehicles that used to require 1 human drive each, what do the 99 displaced human workers do? The new jobs created by leveraging technology will be far less than the number of jobs eliminated by that tech.

When routine agricultural jobs were eliminated in the 19th and early 20th centuries via mechanization, people could still find jobs in factories. When routine factory jobs became increasingly automated, there were still plenty of office jobs and jobs where human hand/eye coordination could not be replaced. Now with even routine office work and traditional hand/eye coordination jobs under threat, where will people go?


First Principle 2: Not everyone is smart enough to be an Engineer, designer, or tech worker.

First Principle 3: Idle people get into trouble.

Do we really want hordes of idle people to become "irrelevant" to society? Jailing people en masse works very poorly today, and I doubt it would work any better in the future. People without work and without purpose will resort to crime to survive.

I love new technology, but I also find that societies in general do not really consider the implications of what technology will do to the fabric of a society.

This is the kind arguments made by statist since feudal times. This time is different. This time we will not be able to transition.

It is simply more efficient to put all the displaced people on the dole or in artificially created jobs. Much more elderly and child care paid by the taxpayer. In industrialized societies all over the world the fertility rates are dropping far below replacement levels so maybe we make parenting a paid job by government;creating the next generation of citizens is a civic good.

As long as democracy holds a dystopian society where 3% consume 99% of the goods is impossible. Even in non democratic societies like the Middle East wealth redistribution happens for fear of revolution. Look at the massive Welfare States in the Gulf Countries.

 

[sundaymorning]

It just means people are not paying attention to what is changing in the world.

There's:

More solar than ever, residential and utility (1 million and counting)
number of EVs on the road go up daily
Gas utilities wanting to add renewable instead of the old way (NY)
huge casinos leaving for their own renewable (back to #1 on the list)
NHTSA getting behind self driving

It's all right there......just need to open their eyes.

If everyone had their "eyes" opened, and can see what most of us here can see and invest in advance, there would be no "poor" folks around.

 

[schonelucht]

I like the fact that Tesla is working on a semi and a bus with a reveal relatively soonish.

 

[stealthology]

Short term though, expect no pop until Q3 delivery. Execution has been tesla's biggest problem, and plans alone wont change investor's minds. I predict it might even go down on Solarcity risks and Q2 weakness in the coming weeks. Get dry powder ready again.

Anyone else have thoughts on price action for tomorrow?

 

[MikeC]

Elon just tweeted that "Jerome" has been working on the semi.

Jerome Guillen is still with the company? Great to hear!

 

[sunilsf]

I can just see it now-- Tesla Semis and Busses clogging up the supercharger stalls.

 

[sundaymorning]

The problem here is again one of numbers. Any given industrial economy has only a relatively small number of engineer/designer/creatives. A modern giant like Google has around 57k employees and 500B in market cap. An older industrial/engineering/manufacturing giant like GE has around 300k employees and 300B in market cap.

1 Yoga instructor might teach several classes/day with 10-15 people. 1 personal trainer might meet with 6-7 clients/day. Jobs like these to serve the creative class won't generate enough jobs to offset losses.

Where I see this headed is a 2-tier society like Gallifrey, where the Time Lords live in their protected Citadel, while the rest live in a kind of 3rd world type wasteland.

I tend to think that engineers provide a lot more jobs than we can "see". Take for instance an engineer who develops a game like "Pokemon Go." A game like that will likely provide tons of jobs we don't see outside of Nintendo.

Google may only have 57k engineers, but jobs that benefit directly or indirectly from Google is huge, such as companies who partners" with Google, or sells to them, this goes straight down to the restaurants that eventually pops open within a 5 mile radius to feed the engineers...

Another example is if you had a $1 bill, and went to spend it, that $1 dollar doesn't stop and disappear at the store you spent it at. It could go into the pocket of the store owner, who then would take it to spend somewhere else, then the next person would do the same, etc..

Something to consider here, Tech jobs provided to engineers are high paying jobs, quality work that enables them to splurge: buy a nice house, with top of the line furniture, maybe remodeling or renovation, take some vacations, etc.

Arguably the computer was meant to replace a lot of jobs, but it actuallity, it created more. The SMP2 only shifts the market towards higher demand for engineers, designeers..students will pursue this field as long as there is demand for it. Kids today are more tech savvy than any generations before (gee I wonder why?) Those who aren't "smart" enough to enter this field can benefit indirectly, as stated above..